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Bundesliga · Matchweek 30

Momentum

FCBVFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
30

Venue

Stadium
Allianz Arena, Munich
Capacity
75,024
Surface
grass
Attendance
75,000

Teams

Coaches
Vincent Kompany · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
1 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Sören Storks

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
13.6° (feels 12.5°)
Wind
7.7
Humidity
54%

Where to watch · 397

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Bayern München

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 18 GA 6 · xG 14.91–6.74 · xPts 10.9

  • W H Real Madrid 4–3 xG 2.33–2.2 UEFA CL
  • W A St. Pauli 5–0 xG 3.19–0.61 GER BI
  • W A Real Madrid 2–1 xG 2.69–1.71 UEFA CL
  • W A SC Freiburg 3–2 xG 2.85–1.92 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 4–0 xG 3.85–0.31 GER BI

VfB Stuttgart

WLWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 6 · xG 9.39–5.33 · xPts 9.05

  • W H Hamburger SV 4–0 xG 3.36–0.64 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.74–0.61 GER BI
  • W A FC Augsburg 5–2 xG 2.36–1.5 GER BI
  • L A Porto 0–2 xG 1.62–1.59 UEFA EL
  • W H RB Leipzig 1–0 xG 1.32–1.0 GER BI

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

FC Bayern München 295 draws5 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 100–39 · 3.56 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 77%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Bayern München 72 draws1 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 31–12 · 4.3 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Bayern München 50 draws0 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 21–4 · 5.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W FC Bayern München 5–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 0–5 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 1–3 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 4–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Bayern München 3–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 1–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Bayern München 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Bayern München 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München at home · 17VfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.622.591.821.35
W / D / L28 / 5 / 114 / 2 / 118 / 8 / 86 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match3.594.002.092.41
Goals against / match1.061.121.441.94
Clean sheets35%29%32%18%
Failed to score0%0%9%0%
Both teams scored65%71%62%82%
Over 2.594%100%74%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.702.941.801.61
xG against / match1.220.991.541.89
xG difference1.481.940.26-0.28
Finishing vs xG0.891.060.280.80
xPts / match2.152.351.581.30
Points vs xPts0.470.240.240.05
Game state
Scored first65%76%53%53%
PPG when scoring first2.772.622.331.89
PPG when conceding first2.332.501.270.75
Came back from behind93%83%56%46%
Leads held90%88%75%54%
Minutes leading50%59%32%34%
Minutes level36%31%47%36%
Minutes trailing14%10%21%30%
First goal (min)32254038
First goal conceded (min)38413838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%47%54%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half47%47%53%52%
Late goals for (76'+)1.030.820.650.76
Late goals against0.320.410.500.53
Style
Possession67%68%58%57%
Shots19.221.515.213.8
On target8.58.96.16.0
Shot conversion19%19%14%18%
Shots inside box68%66%66%66%
Big chances created4.95.53.32.9
Corners6.47.65.75.5
xG from set plays23%24%24%26%
Goals from headers11%9%9%8%
Pressure index27.530.119.220.8
Dominant minutes74.279.861.559.6
Pass accuracy90%91%84%84%
Fouls8.88.59.69.9
Cards1.791.351.911.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Bayern München · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.86) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.865
Early press (0-15, level)+0.905

Game state

When ahead+0.894
When level+0.855
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.324

Situations

At home+0.693
Away+1.052
4+ days rest+0.784

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.612
v bottom-tier opponents+0.972
As favourite+0.865

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.445
Conceded when ahead-0.474
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level +0.04

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level -0.24

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 9 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.5Home 64% P 64%5.25Draw 18% P 18%5.25Away 18% P 17%

Double Chance

1.12Bayern Munich or Draw 42%1.14Bayern Munich or VfB Stuttgart 41%2.75Draw or VfB Stuttgart 17%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.36Yes 69%3.0No 31%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.25Over 76%4.0Under 24%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 51%1.83Under 50% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 339 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home64%63%64%+0.8
Draw18%21%19%-2.1
Away17%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Sören Storks

Career
70 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.97 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 30 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.234.15+2.22100
Fouls / match20.822.3-1.47
Fouls per card4.15.4-2.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.33-1.850
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
38' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-21 101 220 38'9
2026-03-04 20 230 40'10
2026-02-22 70 160 7'7
2026-02-06 71 201 25'12
2026-01-25 · VfB Stuttgart 20 181 43'8
2025-12-13 51 210 25'9
2025-11-30 · VfB Stuttgart 61 280 23'7
2025-11-01 70 330 1'10
2025-10-04 40 170 68'9
2025-08-31 81 291 40'16