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Bundesliga · Matchweek 31

Momentum

Hamburger SVTSG
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
31

Venue

Stadium
Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Capacity
57,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
57,000

Teams

Coaches
Merlin Polzin · Christian Ilzer
Position
14 · 6
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Robert Schröder

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
8.0° (feels 4.3°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 397

  • Algeria beIN SPORTS CONNECT · beIN Sports English · beIN Sports English 2 · beIN Sports HD 2 · beIN Sports HD 3 · TOD
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  • Zambia New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4 · StarTimes App
  • Zimbabwe New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Hamburger SV

DLDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 12 · xG 5.29–14.7 · xPts 2.85

  • L A Werder Bremen 1–3 xG 0.64–1.68 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 0–4 xG 0.64–3.36 GER BI
  • D H FC Augsburg 1–1 xG 2.54–2.83 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 2–3 xG 1.15–5.7 GER BI
  • D H FC Köln 1–1 xG 0.33–1.13 GER BI

TSG Hoffenheim

DLLDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 7.92–7.25 · xPts 7.48

  • W H Borussia Dortmund 2–1 xG 2.35–0.86 GER BI
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.22–1.99 GER BI
  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 1.43–1.67 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–5 xG 1.0–2.36 GER BI
  • D H VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 xG 1.92–0.37 GER BI

All meetings · 22 matches since 2008

Hamburger SV 84 draws10 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 25–40 · 2.95 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 64%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hamburger SV 32 draws5 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 12–18 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV 20 draws3 TSG Hoffenheim

Goals 7–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Hamburger SV 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 3–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Hamburger SV 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Hamburger SV 1–3 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 3–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Hamburger SV 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHamburger SV all · 34Hamburger SV at home · 17TSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.121.411.791.71
W / D / L9 / 11 / 146 / 6 / 518 / 7 / 98 / 5 / 4
Goals for / match1.181.471.911.76
Goals against / match1.591.291.531.82
Clean sheets18%12%21%18%
Failed to score29%24%18%24%
Both teams scored65%71%65%65%
Over 2.556%53%71%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.311.501.711.56
xG against / match1.811.541.461.70
xG difference-0.50-0.030.25-0.14
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.030.200.20
xPts / match1.141.361.581.38
Points vs xPts-0.020.050.210.33
Game state
Scored first35%47%47%35%
PPG when scoring first1.581.882.752.67
PPG when conceding first0.831.000.941.20
Came back from behind36%50%47%60%
Leads held56%60%86%80%
Minutes leading16%19%37%28%
Minutes level58%58%40%46%
Minutes trailing26%24%22%26%
First goal (min)43363433
First goal conceded (min)40403727
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%52%45%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%46%50%42%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.240.290.18
Late goals against0.380.240.350.35
Style
Possession45%45%55%54%
Shots12.313.314.112.0
On target4.64.75.24.4
Shot conversion10%11%14%15%
Shots inside box66%70%69%70%
Big chances created1.92.52.82.5
Corners3.73.85.85.2
xG from set plays29%28%35%33%
Goals from headers8%8%22%23%
Pressure index9.110.414.512.4
Dominant minutes38.341.456.950.5
Pass accuracy80%80%80%79%
Fouls11.812.113.914.5
Cards2.682.472.262.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'34
16–30'411
31–45'1010
46–60'910
61–75'86
76–90'613

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223
Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253
When behind-0.213
10 min after conceding-0.453

Situations

Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.163

Behind vs level +0.04

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-317 50%1.291.291.351.321.54
3-4-2-110 29%1.31.31.41.462.13
3-4-1-23 9%0.00.673.00.972.31
3-5-1-11 3%1.02.02.02.562.41
4-2-3-11 3%1.00.00.00.370.31

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-1-4-12 6%2.01.50.51.361.13

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.6h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.5Home 21% P 20%4.2Draw 22% P 22%1.65Away 57% P 57%

Double Chance

2.05Hamburg or Draw 23%1.22Hamburg or TSG Hoffenheim 39%1.22Draw or TSG Hoffenheim 39%

Draw No Bet

3.41 28%1.32 72%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.44Over 66% P 66%2.75Under 34% P 34%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 55–57.5% · 207 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home20%21%18%-2.6
Draw22%23%25%+2.1
Away57%56%57%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 63%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.566%66%69%+3.2

Robert Schröder

Career
94 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.36 (4.19 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match23.122.3+0.61
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.32+0.4470
Time added6.46.8-0.5430
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.38

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-04 60 220 29'7
2026-03-06 11 191 55'9
2026-02-21 · TSG Hoffenheim 40 180 42'9
2026-01-31 41 210 53'9
2026-01-17 · Hamburger SV 30 340 42'10
2026-01-10 30 160 21'8
2025-12-11 70 291 7'6
2025-12-06 50 231 22'16
2025-07-24 50 250 68'6
2025-05-10 10 220 67'13