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Bundesliga · Matchweek 32

Momentum

TSGVFB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
32

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,150

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Sebastian Hoeneß
Position
5 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
24.8° (feels 24.4°)
Wind
2.0
Humidity
40%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 7.9–8.51 · xPts 6.59

  • W A Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 1.9–1.64 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Dortmund 2–1 xG 2.35–0.86 GER BI
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.22–1.99 GER BI
  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 1.43–1.67 GER BI
  • L A RB Leipzig 0–5 xG 1.0–2.36 GER BI

VfB Stuttgart

WLWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 12 GA 9 · xG 9.67–8.0 · xPts 8.31

  • D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 2.04–1.03 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 2–4 xG 1.17–4.23 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 4–0 xG 3.36–0.64 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.74–0.61 GER BI
  • W A FC Augsburg 5–2 xG 2.36–1.5 GER BI

All meetings · 33 matches since 2008

TSG Hoffenheim 913 draws11 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 49–56 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 36 draws1 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 15–15 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 14 draws0 VfB Stuttgart

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 0–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W VfB Stuttgart 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim at home · 17VfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.791.881.821.35
W / D / L18 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 518 / 8 / 86 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.912.062.092.41
Goals against / match1.531.241.441.94
Clean sheets21%24%32%18%
Failed to score18%12%9%0%
Both teams scored65%65%62%82%
Over 2.571%71%74%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.861.801.61
xG against / match1.461.211.541.89
xG difference0.250.650.26-0.28
Finishing vs xG0.200.200.280.80
xPts / match1.581.781.581.30
Points vs xPts0.210.100.240.05
Game state
Scored first47%59%53%53%
PPG when scoring first2.752.802.331.89
PPG when conceding first0.940.571.270.75
Came back from behind47%29%56%46%
Leads held86%91%75%54%
Minutes leading37%46%32%34%
Minutes level40%35%47%36%
Minutes trailing22%19%21%30%
First goal (min)34364038
First goal conceded (min)37473838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%40%54%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%62%53%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.410.650.76
Late goals against0.350.350.500.53
Style
Possession55%57%58%57%
Shots14.116.215.213.8
On target5.25.96.16.0
Shot conversion14%13%14%18%
Shots inside box69%68%66%66%
Big chances created2.83.13.32.9
Corners5.86.45.75.5
xG from set plays35%36%24%26%
Goals from headers22%21%9%8%
Pressure index14.516.619.220.8
Dominant minutes56.963.461.559.6
Pass accuracy80%82%84%84%
Fouls13.913.49.69.9
Cards2.261.821.911.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
4-1-4-12 6%2.01.50.51.361.13

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.4Home 39% P 44%4.0Draw 24% P 24%2.55Away 37% P 32%

Double Chance

1.5TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 31%1.22TSG Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart 39%1.57Draw or VfB Stuttgart 30%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.33Yes 71%3.25No 29%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 69%3.0Under 32% P 31%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 30–32.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%43%45%+1.8
Draw24%26%25%-0.8
Away32%31%30%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.14-0.5626
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.32-1.2215
Time added6.86.8-0.1241
First card
36' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-11 50 150 33'6
2026-03-19 81 240 22'6
2026-03-15 30 140 38'7
2026-02-22 · VfB Stuttgart 30 202 72'13
2026-01-31 40 281 29'8
2026-01-22 30 250 55'4
2026-01-17 10 130 29'9
2025-12-20 20 241 82'11
2025-12-07 80 210 32'8
2025-11-27 30 211 11'6