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Bundesliga · Matchweek 33

Momentum

TSGSVW
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,128

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Daniel Thioune
Position
6 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Sören Storks

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
22.6° (feels 22.1°)
Wind
3.8
Humidity
48%

Where to watch · 402

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

LDWWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 10 GA 9 · xG 9.08–7.82 · xPts 7.67

  • D H VfB Stuttgart 3–3 xG 2.18–1.67 GER BI
  • W A Hamburger SV 2–1 xG 1.9–1.64 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Dortmund 2–1 xG 2.35–0.86 GER BI
  • D A FC Augsburg 2–2 xG 1.22–1.99 GER BI
  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 1.43–1.67 GER BI

Werder Bremen

LLWDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 10 · xG 6.34–9.76 · xPts 5.6

  • L H FC Augsburg 1–3 xG 1.04–2.36 GER BI
  • D A VfB Stuttgart 1–1 xG 1.03–2.04 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 3–1 xG 1.68–0.64 GER BI
  • L A FC Köln 1–3 xG 0.98–3.79 GER BI
  • L H RB Leipzig 1–2 xG 1.61–0.93 GER BI

All meetings · 34 matches since 2008

TSG Hoffenheim 1210 draws12 Werder Bremen

Goals 60–55 · 3.38 per match · BTTS 74% · over 2.5 59%

Last 10 · 10 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 71 draws2 Werder Bremen

Goals 22–12 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 40 draws1 Werder Bremen

Goals 11–6 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 0–2 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 3–4 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 4–0 Werder Bremen neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Werder Bremen 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 34TSG Hoffenheim at home · 17Werder Bremen all · 34Werder Bremen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.791.880.940.76
W / D / L18 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 58 / 8 / 183 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.912.061.091.06
Goals against / match1.531.241.761.71
Clean sheets21%24%18%18%
Failed to score18%12%38%41%
Both teams scored65%65%47%47%
Over 2.571%71%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.861.211.01
xG against / match1.461.211.581.82
xG difference0.250.65-0.37-0.81
Finishing vs xG0.200.20-0.120.05
xPts / match1.581.781.210.95
Points vs xPts0.210.10-0.27-0.19
Game state
Scored first47%59%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.752.802.101.60
PPG when conceding first0.940.570.430.36
Came back from behind47%29%25%17%
Leads held86%91%62%50%
Minutes leading37%46%16%16%
Minutes level40%35%41%44%
Minutes trailing22%19%43%40%
First goal (min)34365250
First goal conceded (min)37473536
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%40%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%62%57%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.290.410.410.24
Late goals against0.350.350.320.35
Style
Possession55%57%51%48%
Shots14.116.213.110.8
On target5.25.94.13.6
Shot conversion14%13%8%10%
Shots inside box69%68%62%61%
Big chances created2.83.11.71.5
Corners5.86.44.64.2
xG from set plays35%36%24%24%
Goals from headers22%21%19%6%
Pressure index14.516.612.68.1
Dominant minutes56.963.447.835.1
Pass accuracy80%82%82%81%
Fouls13.913.49.99.5
Cards2.261.822.472.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

TSG Hoffenheim

0–15'59
16–30'1210
31–45'197
46–60'145
61–75'59
76–90'1012

Werder Bremen

0–15'27
16–30'49
31–45'510
46–60'48
61–75'815
76–90'1411

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.462
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-19 26%1.891.781.562.051.33
4-4-25 15%1.82.22.21.461.69
4-3-34 12%2.252.251.251.471.11
4-3-1-24 12%1.752.251.02.011.21
3-4-2-12 6%3.02.51.01.611.21

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-115 44%1.01.22.071.121.76
3-4-2-16 18%0.51.172.171.221.4
4-1-4-13 9%1.01.01.331.111.63
4-3-33 9%2.332.331.01.651.78
3-5-23 9%0.330.01.01.21.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.5Home 64% P 63%5.0Draw 19% P 20%5.5Away 17% P 17%

Double Chance

1.14TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 41%1.16TSG Hoffenheim or Werder Bremen 41%2.62Draw or Werder Bremen 18%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 69%3.2Under 30% P 31%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 58%2.0Under 46% P 42%
4.52.2Over 42% P 40%1.61Under 58% P 60%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home63%63%64%+0.7
Draw20%21%19%-2.0
Away17%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Sören Storks

Career
70 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.16 (3.97 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
23.0 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 30 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.234.14+2.24100
Fouls / match20.822.3-1.48
Fouls per card4.15.4-2.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.32-1.850
Time added7.86.8+0.9389
First card
38' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-19 9 6
2026-03-21 101 220 38'9
2026-03-04 20 230 40'10
2026-02-22 · Werder Bremen 70 160 7'7
2026-02-06 71 201 25'12
2026-01-25 20 181 43'8
2025-12-13 51 210 25'9
2025-11-30 61 280 23'7
2025-11-01 70 330 1'10
2025-10-04 · Werder Bremen 40 170 68'9