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Bundesliga · Matchweek 33

Momentum

VFBB04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Capacity
60,449
Surface
grass
Attendance
60,000

Teams

Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß · Kasper Hjulmand
Position
5 · 4
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Robert Schröder

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
23.7° (feels 23.2°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
42%

Where to watch · 402

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  • Zimbabwe New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfB Stuttgart

LWLDD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 10 · xG 8.98–8.68 · xPts 7.51

  • D A TSG Hoffenheim 3–3 xG 1.67–2.18 GER BI
  • D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 2.04–1.03 GER BI
  • L A FC Bayern München 2–4 xG 1.17–4.23 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 4–0 xG 3.36–0.64 GER BI
  • L H Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.74–0.61 GER BI

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WWLWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 14 GA 7 · xG 14.86–8.28 · xPts 9.42

  • W H RB Leipzig 4–1 xG 3.12–1.03 GER BI
  • W A FC Köln 2–1 xG 1.68–2.8 GER BI
  • L H FC Augsburg 1–2 xG 5.31–1.4 GER BI
  • W A Borussia Dortmund 1–0 xG 0.67–1.21 GER BI
  • W H VfL Wolfsburg 6–3 xG 4.09–1.83 GER BI

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

VfB Stuttgart 79 draws22 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 48–79 · 3.34 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfB Stuttgart 24 draws4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 17–19 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart 22 draws1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Goals 12–8 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–4 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfB Stuttgart all · 34VfB Stuttgart at home · 17Bayer 04 Leverkusen all · 34Bayer 04 Leverkusen away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.822.291.741.65
W / D / L18 / 8 / 812 / 3 / 217 / 8 / 98 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match2.091.762.001.76
Goals against / match1.440.941.381.65
Clean sheets32%47%24%12%
Failed to score9%18%12%24%
Both teams scored62%41%65%65%
Over 2.574%47%59%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.802.001.911.40
xG against / match1.541.201.401.71
xG difference0.260.800.51-0.30
Finishing vs xG0.28-0.230.090.36
xPts / match1.581.861.651.21
Points vs xPts0.240.430.080.44
Game state
Scored first53%53%65%59%
PPG when scoring first2.332.782.232.30
PPG when conceding first1.271.860.830.71
Came back from behind56%71%40%38%
Leads held75%92%68%67%
Minutes leading32%30%40%39%
Minutes level47%58%39%36%
Minutes trailing21%11%20%25%
First goal (min)40433429
First goal conceded (min)38373934
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%53%41%30%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%56%45%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.530.350.24
Late goals against0.500.470.260.35
Style
Possession58%58%59%57%
Shots15.216.615.211.7
On target6.16.25.23.8
Shot conversion14%11%13%15%
Shots inside box66%65%64%61%
Big chances created3.33.73.73.1
Corners5.75.95.64.5
xG from set plays24%22%27%26%
Goals from headers9%10%19%14%
Pressure index19.217.516.111.6
Dominant minutes61.563.457.149.4
Pass accuracy84%84%88%87%
Fouls9.69.38.68.5
Cards1.911.942.182.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfB Stuttgart

0–15'66
16–30'126
31–45'1511
46–60'95
61–75'74
76–90'2217

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0–15'116
16–30'116
31–45'1814
46–60'86
61–75'86
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294

Situations

At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124

Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

VfB Stuttgart

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%1.812.141.621.751.74
3-4-2-16 18%1.671.831.01.590.99
3-4-1-25 15%2.02.21.22.091.45
4-2-2-21 3%3.03.02.02.820.88
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.01.751.72

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-131 91%1.842.01.231.971.37
4-2-3-12 6%1.03.03.01.761.64
5-4-11 3%0.00.03.00.581.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 48%4.1Draw 23% P 23%3.2Away 30% P 29%

Double Chance

1.4VfB Stuttgart or Draw 33%1.22VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen 38%1.61Draw or Bayer Leverkusen 29%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.3Yes 72%3.4No 28%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.33Over 72% P 71%3.4Under 28% P 29%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 63%2.1Under 44% P 37%
4.51.83Over 50% P 44%1.83Under 50% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–50% · away 25–30% · 1,582 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%47%46%-0.5
Draw23%27%28%+1.1
Away29%27%26%-0.5

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.571%71%70%-1.4

Robert Schröder

Career
94 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.36 (4.19 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match23.122.3+0.61
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.32+0.4470
Time added6.46.8-0.5430
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.38

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-25 60 291 8'8
2026-04-04 · VfB Stuttgart 60 220 29'7
2026-03-06 11 191 55'9
2026-02-21 40 180 42'9
2026-01-31 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 41 210 53'9
2026-01-17 30 340 42'10
2026-01-10 30 160 21'8
2025-12-11 70 291 7'6
2025-12-06 50 231 22'16
2025-07-24 50 250 68'6