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Bundesliga · Matchweek 33

Momentum

WOBFCB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Capacity
30,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,917

Teams

Coaches
Dieter Hecking · Vincent Kompany
Position
16 · 1
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
13.3° (feels 12.5°)
Wind
2.3
Humidity
69%

Where to watch · 402

  • Algeria beIN SPORTS CONNECT · beIN Sports English · beIN Sports English 2 · beIN Sports HD 2 · beIN Sports HD 3 · TOD
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  • Zambia New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4 · StarTimes App
  • Zimbabwe New World Sport1 · New World Sport2 · New World Sport4

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

VfL Wolfsburg

LLWDD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 10 · xG 7.33–8.85 · xPts 6.39

  • D A SC Freiburg 1–1 xG 1.06–1.19 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 xG 1.64–0.75 GER BI
  • W A FC Union Berlin 2–1 xG 0.21–1.94 GER BI
  • L H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 xG 2.59–0.88 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–6 xG 1.83–4.09 GER BI

FC Bayern München

WWLDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 16 GA 14 · xG 12.81–9.22 · xPts 8.64

  • D H Paris Saint Germain 1–1 xG 1.8–1.37 UEFA CL
  • D H FC Heidenheim 3–3 xG 2.2–1.95 GER BI
  • L A Paris Saint Germain 4–5 xG 2.41–2.02 UEFA CL
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 4–3 xG 2.17–2.7 GER BI
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 4–2 xG 4.23–1.17 GER BI

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

VfL Wolfsburg 35 draws34 FC Bayern München

Goals 37–111 · 3.52 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 10 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 01 draws9 FC Bayern München

Goals 10–31 · 4.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg 00 draws5 FC Bayern München

Goals 5–17 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 8–1 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 2–4 FC Bayern München neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 FC Bayern München neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Bayern München 4–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
MetricVfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg at home · 17FC Bayern München all · 34FC Bayern München away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.850.592.622.65
W / D / L7 / 8 / 192 / 4 / 1128 / 5 / 114 / 3 / 0
Goals for / match1.321.243.593.18
Goals against / match2.031.881.061.00
Clean sheets6%6%35%41%
Failed to score24%29%0%0%
Both teams scored74%71%65%59%
Over 2.565%65%94%88%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.582.702.47
xG against / match1.891.691.221.46
xG difference-0.50-0.111.481.01
Finishing vs xG-0.07-0.350.890.71
xPts / match1.141.342.151.95
Points vs xPts-0.28-0.750.470.70
Game state
Scored first53%35%65%53%
PPG when scoring first1.441.172.773.00
PPG when conceding first0.130.202.332.25
Came back from behind10%15%93%100%
Leads held35%25%90%93%
Minutes leading27%18%50%41%
Minutes level43%48%36%42%
Minutes trailing30%34%14%17%
First goal (min)35383240
First goal conceded (min)43383835
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%57%59%74%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%56%47%47%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.241.031.24
Late goals against0.560.470.320.24
Style
Possession45%48%67%67%
Shots11.913.619.216.8
On target4.24.78.58.1
Shot conversion11%9%19%19%
Shots inside box64%66%68%70%
Big chances created2.63.04.94.2
Corners4.45.46.45.1
xG from set plays32%32%23%22%
Goals from headers25%33%11%13%
Pressure index9.112.727.525.0
Dominant minutes38.146.374.268.6
Pass accuracy78%80%90%89%
Fouls11.512.18.89.1
Cards2.152.291.792.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

FC Bayern München

0–15'95
16–30'188
31–45'236
46–60'173
61–75'203
76–90'3511

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

VfL Wolfsburg

No pressure profile yet.

FC Bayern München · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.85) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.24

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.854
Early press (0-15, level)+1.044

Game state

When ahead+0.823
When level+0.874
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.243

Situations

At home+0.622
Away+1.042
4+ days rest+0.753

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.622
As favourite+0.854

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.434
Conceded when ahead-0.473
Conceded late (76+)-0.774

Congested vs rested +0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.05

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72

FC Bayern München

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-133 97%2.673.611.02.721.2
4-3-1-21 3%1.03.03.02.21.95

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

5.25Home 18% P 17%5.25Draw 18% P 19%1.48Away 64% P 64%

Double Chance

2.37Wolfsburg or Draw 20%1.16Wolfsburg or Bayern Munich 40%1.16Draw or Bayern Munich 40%

Draw No Bet

3.751 25%1.252 75%

Both Teams To Score

1.3Yes 72%3.4No 28%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.25Over 76%4.0Under 24%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%6.5Over 14 13%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46% P 48%1.72Under 54% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 15–17.5% · away 62.5–65% · 188 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home17%16%17%+1.1
Draw19%21%26%+4.9
Away64%63%57%-6.0

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 53%

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Career
72 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.15 (4.01 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match22.122.3-0.25
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8785
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
37' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-17 50 81 71'9
2026-03-21 50 183 45'11
2026-03-07 20 190 82'10
2026-02-28 90 231 20'13
2026-02-15 · VfL Wolfsburg 30 160 48'9
2026-02-01 40 222 40'12
2026-01-13 40 230 9'10
2025-12-21 20 140 32'6
2025-11-09 50 220 45'6
2025-10-25 20 270 57'10