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Bundesliga · Matchweek 34

Momentum

HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
34

Venue

Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion, Heidenheim an der Brenz
Capacity
15,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
15,000

Teams

Coaches
Frank Schmidt · Urs Fischer
Position
17 · 10
Formation
4-4-1-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Robert Hartmann

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.4° (feels 10.2°)
Wind
0.9
Humidity
61%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Heidenheim

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 12 GA 7 · xG 9.35–7.24 · xPts 8.36

  • W A FC Köln 3–1 xG 1.66–1.15 GER BI
  • D A FC Bayern München 3–3 xG 1.95–2.2 GER BI
  • W H St. Pauli 2–0 xG 1.63–0.85 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 1–2 xG 1.89–2.07 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 2.22–0.96 GER BI

FSV Mainz 05

LDLWL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 13 · xG 8.86–9.62 · xPts 6.96

  • L H FC Union Berlin 1–3 xG 1.5–2.75 GER BI
  • W A St. Pauli 2–1 xG 2.02–0.99 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 3–4 xG 2.7–2.17 GER BI
  • D A Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 xG 2.3–0.77 GER BI
  • L A Strasbourg 0–4 xG 0.34–2.93 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Heidenheim 21 draws3 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 5–7 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 17%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Heidenheim 21 draws3 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 5–7 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 17%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Heidenheim 11 draws3 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 4–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Heidenheim 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FSV Mainz 05 2–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Heidenheim 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 0–2 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Heidenheim 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FSV Mainz 05 0–1 FC Heidenheim GER BI · Regular Season
MetricHeidenheim all · 34Heidenheim at home · 17FSV Mainz 05 all · 34FSV Mainz 05 away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.001.181.35
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 810 / 10 / 146 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.211.351.291.35
Goals against / match2.122.181.561.65
Clean sheets3%6%12%12%
Failed to score35%35%29%24%
Both teams scored62%59%62%65%
Over 2.568%71%53%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.461.581.41
xG against / match1.911.931.651.89
xG difference-0.55-0.47-0.07-0.48
Finishing vs xG-0.16-0.11-0.28-0.06
xPts / match1.101.151.391.18
Points vs xPts-0.33-0.15-0.220.17
Game state
Scored first24%29%47%53%
PPG when scoring first2.002.201.811.89
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.590.75
Came back from behind23%33%33%40%
Leads held46%57%53%54%
Minutes leading15%18%28%34%
Minutes level48%46%43%36%
Minutes trailing37%36%29%30%
First goal (min)45363737
First goal conceded (min)39384444
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%61%48%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%54%57%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.320.410.260.18
Late goals against0.440.530.590.65
Style
Possession42%42%44%42%
Shots11.411.512.110.5
On target3.63.94.24.2
Shot conversion11%12%11%13%
Shots inside box69%66%76%75%
Big chances created2.52.73.23.0
Corners4.54.65.13.9
xG from set plays33%38%39%40%
Goals from headers15%13%18%22%
Pressure index7.77.410.98.9
Dominant minutes35.337.544.037.8
Pass accuracy76%76%75%74%
Fouls9.89.411.010.1
Cards1.441.182.242.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Heidenheim

0–15'45
16–30'611
31–45'617
46–60'713
61–75'711
76–90'1115

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'810
16–30'56
31–45'107
46–60'57
61–75'73
76–90'920

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Heidenheim

No pressure profile yet.

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Heidenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.331.541.71
4-3-2-15 15%0.81.02.41.362.26
4-2-3-14 12%0.250.252.00.792.1
4-3-34 12%1.01.752.251.01.59
4-4-24 12%1.52.01.51.861.09

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-217 50%1.821.711.411.871.7
3-4-2-111 32%0.450.912.01.261.72
5-3-22 6%0.50.00.51.160.45
3-1-4-22 6%0.51.01.51.561.4
5-4-11 3%1.02.02.00.543.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 48% P 48%4.1Draw 23% P 23%3.25Away 29% P 29%

Double Chance

1.3Heidenheim or Draw 36%1.2Heidenheim or Mainz 39%1.9Draw or Mainz 25%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66%2.75No 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 65%3.0Under 32% P 35%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 49%1.8Under 51% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–50% · away 25–30% · 1,583 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%47%46%-0.5
Draw23%27%28%+1.1
Away29%27%26%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%66%69%+3.2

Robert Hartmann

Career
180 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.63 (3.49 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 60 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.974.15-0.5530
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.40
Fouls per card5.95.4+0.64 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.370.33+0.4167
Time added7.06.8+0.0952
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-25 30 161 10'8
2026-04-04 30 270 73'9
2026-03-07 · Heidenheim 22 11
2026-02-14 50 200 29'7
2026-01-24 10 261 59'9
2026-01-14 40 280 14'8
2025-12-14 21 170 11'10
2025-11-22 30 190 34'7
2025-11-01 40 190 18'8
2025-10-05 · FSV Mainz 05 50 270 17'10