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Bundesliga · Matchweek 34
St. PauliSt. Pauli
1–3
FT
VfL WolfsburgWOB

Momentum

– St. PauliWOB –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
34

Venue

Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Capacity
29,546
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,546

Teams

Coaches
Alexander Blessin · Dieter Hecking
Position
18 · 16
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Daniel Siebert

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
12.4° (feels 11.3°)
Wind
7.7
Humidity
60%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

St. Pauli

LDLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 3 GA 12 · xG 4.77–10.62 · xPts 3.71

  • L A RB Leipzig 1–2 xG 0.65–2.23 GER BI
  • L H FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 0.99–2.02 GER BI
  • L A FC Heidenheim 0–2 xG 0.85–1.63 GER BI
  • D H FC Köln 1–1 xG 1.67–1.55 GER BI
  • L H FC Bayern München 0–5 xG 0.61–3.19 GER BI

VfL Wolfsburg

LWDDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 8.25–7.02 · xPts 7.58

  • L H FC Bayern München 0–1 xG 2.75–2.25 GER BI
  • D A SC Freiburg 1–1 xG 1.06–1.19 GER BI
  • D H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 xG 1.64–0.75 GER BI
  • W A FC Union Berlin 2–1 xG 0.21–1.94 GER BI
  • L H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 xG 2.59–0.88 GER BI

All meetings · 6 matches since 2010

St. Pauli 04 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 6–9 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 83% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

St. Pauli 04 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 6–9 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 83% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

St. Pauli 03 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg

Goals 5–8 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D St. Pauli 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 St. Pauli GER BI · Regular Season
  • D St. Pauli 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSt. Pauli all · 34St. Pauli at home · 17VfL Wolfsburg all · 34VfL Wolfsburg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.761.000.851.12
W / D / L6 / 8 / 204 / 5 / 87 / 8 / 195 / 4 / 8
Goals for / match0.851.001.321.41
Goals against / match1.761.822.032.18
Clean sheets15%12%6%6%
Failed to score38%35%24%18%
Both teams scored56%65%74%76%
Over 2.556%71%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.991.131.391.20
xG against / match1.671.631.892.10
xG difference-0.68-0.50-0.50-0.89
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.13-0.070.21
xPts / match0.971.111.140.93
Points vs xPts-0.21-0.11-0.280.19
Game state
Scored first29%29%53%71%
PPG when scoring first1.702.001.441.58
PPG when conceding first0.290.500.130.00
Came back from behind17%27%10%0%
Leads held54%67%35%42%
Minutes leading13%14%27%36%
Minutes level50%53%43%38%
Minutes trailing37%33%30%26%
First goal (min)50533532
First goal conceded (min)40454348
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%71%51%46%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%68%62%68%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.290.210.18
Late goals against0.380.410.560.65
Style
Possession44%45%45%42%
Shots10.310.611.910.2
On target3.44.24.23.7
Shot conversion8%9%11%14%
Shots inside box59%61%64%60%
Big chances created1.71.92.62.2
Corners4.75.94.43.5
xG from set plays34%46%32%32%
Goals from headers24%24%25%17%
Pressure index8.410.59.15.6
Dominant minutes38.244.438.129.8
Pass accuracy77%77%78%76%
Fouls9.69.511.511.0
Cards1.681.822.152.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

St. Pauli

0–15'17
16–30'33
31–45'713
46–60'614
61–75'510
76–90'713

VfL Wolfsburg

0–15'96
16–30'710
31–45'610
46–60'811
61–75'813
76–90'719

St. Pauli

Current: winless 10 · scoring 3 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-118 53%0.890.831.891.011.79
3-4-1-210 29%0.81.01.71.241.61
3-4-32 6%0.50.51.00.430.85
3-5-22 6%0.00.51.50.691.33
5-4-12 6%0.51.02.00.371.94

VfL Wolfsburg

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%0.831.382.211.261.97
3-4-2-16 18%0.671.332.171.361.86
3-5-22 6%0.50.51.01.91.72
3-1-4-22 6%2.01.50.52.551.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 37%3.7Draw 26% P 27%2.55Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.53St Pauli or Draw 31%1.28St Pauli or Wolfsburg 37%1.44Draw or Wolfsburg 33%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56% P 59%2.1Under 44% P 41%
5.52.1Over 44% P 43%1.66Under 56% P 57%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-0.6
Draw27%28%28%+0.2
Away37%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Daniel Siebert

Career
74 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.8 (4.61 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 46 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.264.15+0.0959
Fouls / match22.322.3-0.14
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.35 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.33-0.5422
Time added7.76.8+0.8385
First card
30' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.15

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-05 30 230 81'6
2026-05-02 20 150 14'8
2026-04-18 50 252 31'12
2026-04-07 10 210 31'3
2026-04-04 60 220 25'11
2026-03-18 70 241 28'9
2026-03-07 21 220 45'12
2026-02-22 30 170 27'6
2026-02-18 20 180 45'7
2026-02-07 20 170 6'9