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Bundesliga · Matchweek 34

Momentum

SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
34

Venue

Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
Capacity
34,700
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,600

Teams

Coaches
Julian Schuster · Ole Werner
Position
7 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
13.7° (feels 12.6°)
Wind
1.8
Humidity
57%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Bayern München 342851 1223686 89 WWDWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 342275 703436 73 LWLWW
3 RB Leipzig 342059 664719 65 WWLWL
4 VfB Stuttgart 341888 714922 62 LDDWD
5 TSG Hoffenheim 341879 655213 61 WWDWL
6 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 341789 684721 59 LWWLD
7 SC Freiburg 3413813 5157-6 47 WLDLW
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34111112 6165-4 44 LDLLD
9 FC Augsburg 3412715 4561-16 43 WDWWL
10 FSV Mainz 05 34101014 4453-9 40 DLWLW
11 FC Union Berlin 3410915 4458-14 39 LLDWW
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3491114 4253-11 38 DDWLW
13 Hamburger SV 3491114 4054-14 38 LLWWD
14 FC Köln 3471116 4963-14 32 DLDLL
15 Werder Bremen 348818 3760-23 32 WDLLL
16 VfL Wolfsburg 347819 4569-24 29 WDDLW
17 FC Heidenheim 346820 4172-31 26 LWDWL
18 St. Pauli 346820 2960-31 26 DLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

SC Freiburg

LLDWL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 5.51–9.61 · xPts 4.69

  • L A Hamburger SV 2–3 xG 0.46–1.61 GER BI
  • W H Sporting Braga 3–1 xG 2.16–1.4 UEFA EL
  • D H VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 xG 1.19–1.06 GER BI
  • L A Sporting Braga 1–2 xG 1.2–2.68 UEFA EL
  • L A Borussia Dortmund 0–4 xG 0.5–2.87 GER BI

RB Leipzig

WWWLW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 11.54–7.09 · xPts 9.45

  • W H St. Pauli 2–1 xG 2.23–0.65 GER BI
  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–4 xG 1.03–3.12 GER BI
  • W H FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 3.4–0.21 GER BI
  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 xG 2.53–1.26 GER BI
  • W H Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 xG 2.36–1.85 GER BI

All meetings · 20 matches since 2016

SC Freiburg 44 draws12 RB Leipzig

Goals 21–42 · 3.15 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

SC Freiburg 13 draws6 RB Leipzig

Goals 10–19 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

SC Freiburg 11 draws3 RB Leipzig

Goals 6–10 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 2–0 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 0–0 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 1–4 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L SC Freiburg 0–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
  • L RB Leipzig 3–1 SC Freiburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D RB Leipzig 1–1 SC Freiburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D SC Freiburg 1–1 RB Leipzig GER BI · Regular Season
MetricSC Freiburg all · 34SC Freiburg at home · 17RB Leipzig all · 34RB Leipzig away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.381.881.911.59
W / D / L13 / 8 / 139 / 5 / 320 / 5 / 98 / 3 / 6
Goals for / match1.501.941.941.53
Goals against / match1.681.291.381.59
Clean sheets18%12%32%29%
Failed to score26%6%9%18%
Both teams scored62%82%62%59%
Over 2.565%71%71%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.882.071.70
xG against / match1.521.311.421.40
xG difference-0.010.580.650.30
Finishing vs xG-0.010.06-0.13-0.17
xPts / match1.361.711.761.55
Points vs xPts0.020.170.160.04
Game state
Scored first44%59%74%59%
PPG when scoring first2.002.102.282.30
PPG when conceding first0.881.570.870.50
Came back from behind44%70%25%14%
Leads held68%69%74%73%
Minutes leading22%32%37%32%
Minutes level54%50%47%47%
Minutes trailing23%18%16%21%
First goal (min)38373834
First goal conceded (min)42454843
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%46%64%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.290.12
Late goals against0.380.290.440.41
Style
Possession48%51%54%52%
Shots12.314.215.814.3
On target4.25.16.04.7
Shot conversion12%14%12%11%
Shots inside box69%69%72%65%
Big chances created2.32.83.62.6
Corners4.14.55.34.7
xG from set plays42%41%22%20%
Goals from headers14%9%14%8%
Pressure index14.318.316.112.2
Dominant minutes51.058.154.547.1
Pass accuracy80%80%84%83%
Fouls9.48.99.310.4
Cards1.621.651.531.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

SC Freiburg

0–15'76
16–30'65
31–45'711
46–60'1017
61–75'95
76–90'1213

RB Leipzig

0–15'70
16–30'118
31–45'149
46–60'139
61–75'116
76–90'1015

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

SC Freiburg · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.62) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.87

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.625
Early press (0-15, level)+0.185

Game state

When ahead+0.375
When level+0.615
10 min after conceding+0.982
10 min after scoring+0.875

Situations

Against ten men+0.493
At home+0.663
Away+0.582
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.202
As favourite+0.625

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.324

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level +2.14

RB Leipzig · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.504
Late chase (76+, behind)+1.252

Game state

When ahead+0.232
When level-0.504
When behind+0.572
10 min after conceding+0.082
10 min after scoring+0.404

Situations

At home+0.002
Away+0.452
4+ days rest+0.383

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.002
As favourite+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.214
Conceded when ahead-0.132
Conceded late (76+)-0.672

Congested vs rested -0.55 · Ahead vs level +0.73 · Behind vs level +1.06

SC Freiburg

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 5 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-131 91%1.321.391.611.451.52
4-4-22 6%1.52.03.51.392.28
4-4-1-11 3%3.04.00.03.720.09

RB Leipzig

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-329 85%1.831.931.482.011.42
4-2-3-13 9%3.02.00.332.511.22
4-1-4-11 3%3.03.01.02.531.26
4-4-1-11 3%0.01.02.01.922.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.4Home 40% P 38%3.9Draw 24% P 25%2.62Away 36% P 37%

Double Chance

1.53SC Freiburg or Draw 31%1.25SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig 38%1.5Draw or RB Leipzig 31%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 63%2.5Under 38% P 37%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44% P 43%1.66Under 56% P 57%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 35–37.5% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home38%38%42%+3.4
Draw25%26%20%-5.4
Away37%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 68% · over 2.5 65%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.14-0.5626
Fouls / match21.622.3-0.75
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.32-1.2215
Time added6.86.8-0.1241
First card
36' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-02 41 270 49'9
2026-04-11 · RB Leipzig 50 150 33'6
2026-03-19 81 240 22'6
2026-03-15 30 140 38'7
2026-02-22 30 202 72'13
2026-01-31 40 281 29'8
2026-01-22 30 250 55'4
2026-01-17 · RB Leipzig 10 130 29'9
2025-12-20 · SC Freiburg 20 241 82'11
2025-12-07 80 210 32'8