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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
ToulouseToulouse
2–2
FT
NantesNantes

Momentum

– ToulouseNantes –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
22,822

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Luís Ferreira de Castro
Position
9 · 16
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Benoît Bastien

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
21.1° (feels 20.5°)
Wind
5.2
Humidity
47%

Where to watch · 196

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

WWLLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 7.57–7.77 · xPts 6.9

  • L A Auxerre 0–1 xG 2.3–0.58 FRA L1
  • L A LOSC Lille 1–2 xG 0.89–2.49 FRA L1
  • L H Paris Saint Germain 3–6 xG 2.36–2.75 FRA L1
  • W H Brest 2–0 xG 1.19–1.14 FRA L1
  • W A Nice 1–0 xG 0.82–0.8 FRA L1

Nantes

LLWLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 3.56–7.33 · xPts 3.93

  • D H Rennes 2–2 xG 1.93–1.32 FRA L1
  • L A Nice 0–1 xG 0.69–1.85 FRA L1
  • W H Auxerre 1–0 xG 0.24–1.03 FRA L1
  • L A Strasbourg 0–1 xG 0.51–1.76 FRA L1
  • L H Paris Saint Germain 0–1 xG 0.19–1.37 FRA L1

All meetings · 26 matches since 2005

Toulouse 612 draws8 Nantes

Goals 21–31 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 24 draws4 Nantes

Goals 8–14 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 13 draws1 Nantes

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Toulouse 2–2 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Nantes 0–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 0–0 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Nantes 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 0–0 Nantes neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 3–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 1–0 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 4–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Nantes all · 33Nantes away · 17
Results
Matches33173317
Points per game1.331.410.700.65
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 55 / 8 / 202 / 5 / 10
Goals for / match1.421.470.880.65
Goals against / match1.391.411.581.47
Clean sheets27%35%21%24%
Failed to score30%35%42%53%
Both teams scored48%41%46%41%
Over 2.554%53%46%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.100.99
xG against / match1.261.151.491.56
xG difference0.120.48-0.38-0.57
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.16-0.22-0.35
xPts / match1.471.681.131.00
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.27-0.44-0.36
Game state
Scored first39%35%27%24%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.002.00
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.100.00
Came back from behind38%44%9%0%
Leads held80%100%56%50%
Minutes leading24%24%19%14%
Minutes level45%43%50%61%
Minutes trailing31%33%30%25%
First goal (min)41423740
First goal conceded (min)40354346
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%45%36%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%58%64%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.150.12
Late goals against0.300.240.580.53
Style
Possession42%43%42%40%
Shots12.814.711.310.6
On target4.34.83.33.1
Shot conversion11%10%8%6%
Shots inside box65%68%65%67%
Big chances created1.92.11.81.5
Corners4.55.13.73.4
xG from set plays38%38%36%38%
Goals from headers15%8%14%18%
Pressure index8.69.58.28.1
Dominant minutes38.240.836.235.1
Pass accuracy80%82%78%78%
Fouls14.413.912.712.9
Cards2.582.182.122.18

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Nantes

0–15'66
16–30'18
31–45'98
46–60'57
61–75'34
76–90'519

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Nantes

No pressure profile yet.

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Nantes

Current: winless 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-310 30%0.91.22.11.081.94
4-1-4-110 30%0.50.51.10.91.38
5-3-23 9%0.00.01.670.771.19
3-4-2-13 9%0.00.672.01.071.2
4-2-3-12 6%1.52.01.02.41.5

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.65Home 57% P 56%3.75Draw 25% P 26%5.25Away 18% P 18%

Double Chance

1.16Toulouse or Draw 41% P 41%1.25Toulouse or Nantes 38% P 37%2.2Draw or Nantes 21% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 48%1.8No 52% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home56%56%53%-2.8
Draw26%25%26%+1.0
Away18%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Benoît Bastien

Career
347 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.35 (4.09 yellow · 0.18 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.37
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 92 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.264.06+0.3472
Fouls / match24.624.3+0.19
Fouls per card5.86.0-0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.380.36+0.1652
Time added7.36.7+0.5280
First card
31' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-20 40 280 18'10
2025-08-31 31 251 8'12
2025-08-28 50 210 9'9
2025-08-17 · Nantes 20 120 45'9
2025-08-12 110 520 49'7
2025-05-10 60 340 9'9
2025-04-26 10 170 37'8
2025-04-12 30 241 9'7
2025-04-06 21 220 90'10
2025-03-13 91 193 9'8