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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 12
LorientLorient
1–1
FT
ToulouseToulouse

Momentum

– LorientToulouse –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient
Capacity
18,110
Surface
artificial turf
Attendance
15,562

Teams

Coaches
Olivier Pantaloni · Carles Martínez Novell
Position
16 · 10
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Hakim Ben El Hadj

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
14.6° (feels 14.2°)
Wind
8.5
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 186

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Lorient

LDLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 11 · xG 6.55–7.45 · xPts 6.03

  • L A Lens 0–3 xG 2.1–2.16 FRA L1
  • D H Paris Saint Germain 1–1 xG 0.23–1.28 FRA L1
  • L A Angers SCO 0–2 xG 2.13–0.93 FRA L1
  • D H Brest 3–3 xG 1.38–1.58 FRA L1
  • L A Paris 0–2 xG 0.72–1.49 FRA L1

Toulouse

WWLDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 8.57–5.98 · xPts 8.69

  • D H Le Havre 0–0 xG 1.73–0.86 FRA L1
  • D H Rennes 2–2 xG 1.78–0.97 FRA L1
  • L A Monaco 0–1 xG 0.86–2.93 FRA L1
  • W H Metz 4–0 xG 2.8–0.18 FRA L1
  • W A Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 xG 1.4–1.04 FRA L1

All meetings · 29 matches since 2006

Lorient 713 draws9 Toulouse

Goals 26–31 · 1.97 per match · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 28%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Lorient 06 draws4 Toulouse

Goals 11–15 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Lorient 03 draws2 Toulouse

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Lorient 2–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–0 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Lorient 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Lorient 0–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 2–2 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 3–2 Lorient neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricLorient all · 34Lorient at home · 17Toulouse all · 33Toulouse away · 16
Results
Matches34173316
Points per game1.321.761.331.25
W / D / L11 / 12 / 118 / 6 / 312 / 8 / 136 / 2 / 8
Goals for / match1.411.821.421.38
Goals against / match1.501.471.391.38
Clean sheets21%24%27%19%
Failed to score29%6%30%25%
Both teams scored53%71%48%56%
Over 2.544%53%54%56%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.351.621.381.11
xG against / match1.381.181.261.38
xG difference-0.030.430.12-0.26
Finishing vs xG0.070.210.040.26
xPts / match1.341.611.471.24
Points vs xPts-0.010.16-0.130.01
Game state
Scored first47%65%39%44%
PPG when scoring first2.192.182.381.86
PPG when conceding first0.531.000.610.78
Came back from behind42%62%38%33%
Leads held65%67%80%67%
Minutes leading26%37%24%24%
Minutes level49%50%45%47%
Minutes trailing25%13%31%29%
First goal (min)37364141
First goal conceded (min)45484044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%55%57%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%72%52%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.240.480.38
Late goals against0.470.530.300.38
Style
Possession45%46%42%41%
Shots11.311.912.810.9
On target3.94.44.33.8
Shot conversion12%15%11%13%
Shots inside box63%64%65%60%
Big chances created2.02.51.91.7
Corners3.53.24.53.8
xG from set plays33%34%38%36%
Goals from headers6%10%15%23%
Pressure index10.110.68.67.6
Dominant minutes42.843.638.235.5
Pass accuracy84%84%80%79%
Fouls9.59.514.414.8
Cards1.681.712.583.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Lorient

0–15'46
16–30'76
31–45'95
46–60'811
61–75'77
76–90'1316

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Lorient · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.96

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)+0.374
Late push (76+, level)-0.152

Game state

When ahead-0.322
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.522
10 min after scoring+0.963

Situations

At home-0.072
Away-0.182
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.022
Evenly matched-0.232

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.214
Conceded when ahead+0.162
Conceded late (76+)-0.064

Ahead vs level -0.18 · Behind vs level +0.28

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Lorient

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-128 82%1.291.391.681.371.46
3-4-34 12%1.751.750.51.680.99
5-4-12 6%1.01.01.00.410.96

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.1Home 31% P 30%3.3Draw 29% P 30%2.35Away 40% P 40%

Double Chance

1.53Lorient or Draw 31% P 30%1.33Lorient or Toulouse 35% P 35%1.36Draw or Toulouse 34% P 35%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 52%1.9No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.72Over 54% P 49%2.0Under 46% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 40–42.5% · 469 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home30%29%31%+2.1
Draw30%30%25%-4.9
Away40%41%44%+2.7

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Hakim Ben El Hadj

Career
153 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.07 (3.86 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
25.9 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.064.06-0.0656
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.26.0+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.240.36-1.158
Time added6.96.7+0.2352
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.29

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-26 40 330 2'8
2025-08-22 –– 12– –8
2025-05-17 50 251 26'10
2025-05-03 30 270 83'12
2025-04-27 61 270 18'9
2025-04-04 20 230 28'6
2025-03-30 · Toulouse 50 280 24'10
2025-03-09 20 290 7'8
2025-02-09 30 180 16'7
2025-01-25 40 260 4'6