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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
ToulouseToulouse
1–0
FT
StrasbourgStrasbourg

Momentum

– ToulouseStrasbourg –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
22,031

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Liam Rosenior
Position
10 · 8
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Stéphanie Frappart

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
10.1° (feels 9.6°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 195

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

DDDLD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 7.31–5.01 · xPts 8.39

  • D A Olympique Marseille 2–2 xG 0.6–1.35 FRA L1
  • L H Angers SCO 0–1 xG 1.79–0.48 FRA L1
  • D A Lorient 1–1 xG 1.41–1.35 FRA L1
  • D H Le Havre 0–0 xG 1.73–0.86 FRA L1
  • D H Rennes 2–2 xG 1.78–0.97 FRA L1

Strasbourg

WWLWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 5.4–6.02 · xPts 6.26

  • L H Brest 1–2 xG 1.01–1.22 FRA L1
  • W H Crystal Palace 2–1 xG 2.41–1.68 UEFA ECL
  • L A Lens 0–1 xG 0.54–1.81 FRA L1
  • W H LOSC Lille 2–0 xG 0.41–0.26 FRA L1
  • W A Häcken 2–1 xG 1.04–1.05 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 18 matches since 2005

Toulouse 44 draws10 Strasbourg

Goals 22–31 · 2.94 per match · BTTS 72% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 32 draws5 Strasbourg

Goals 11–15 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 21 draws2 Strasbourg

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 2–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 2–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–1 Strasbourg neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 4–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Strasbourg all · 34Strasbourg away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.561.35
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 515 / 8 / 116 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.421.471.711.65
Goals against / match1.391.411.381.65
Clean sheets27%35%26%12%
Failed to score30%35%18%18%
Both teams scored48%41%65%76%
Over 2.554%53%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.461.42
xG against / match1.261.151.331.61
xG difference0.120.480.13-0.19
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.160.240.23
xPts / match1.471.681.441.25
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.270.120.10
Game state
Scored first39%35%56%41%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.052.00
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.920.89
Came back from behind38%44%31%40%
Leads held80%100%65%60%
Minutes leading24%24%26%21%
Minutes level45%43%52%46%
Minutes trailing31%33%22%34%
First goal (min)41424144
First goal conceded (min)40353935
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%57%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%62%61%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.410.59
Late goals against0.300.240.350.35
Style
Possession42%43%54%56%
Shots12.814.711.510.9
On target4.34.84.64.2
Shot conversion11%10%15%15%
Shots inside box65%68%69%69%
Big chances created1.92.13.02.8
Corners4.55.14.23.5
xG from set plays38%38%23%26%
Goals from headers15%8%16%21%
Pressure index8.69.514.212.2
Dominant minutes38.240.854.752.8
Pass accuracy80%82%88%88%
Fouls14.413.911.112.6
Cards2.582.181.942.41

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Strasbourg

0–15'47
16–30'106
31–45'115
46–60'914
61–75'103
76–90'1412

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.402

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.204
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%1.591.761.471.61.46
3-4-2-110 29%1.11.61.41.551.24
4-4-1-12 6%1.52.02.01.021.73
3-5-21 3%0.01.02.00.621.57
4-4-21 3%3.03.02.01.961.72

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 37%3.3Draw 29% P 29%2.8Away 34% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4Toulouse or Draw 33% P 33%1.33Toulouse or Strasbourg 35% P 35%1.5Draw or Strasbourg 31% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 54%2.0No 47% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

6.5Under 6 13%2.626 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%15.0Over 14 6%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-1.6
Draw29%30%32%+2.1
Away34%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Stéphanie Frappart

Career
125 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.19 (3.99 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 76 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.214.06+0.2468
Fouls / match24.724.3+0.29
Fouls per card6.06.0-0.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.250.36-1.0812
Time added6.76.7+0.0940
First card
28' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.1

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-09 60 311 21'8
2025-10-25 60 211 22'8
2025-09-21 10 211 43'10
2025-08-30 40 240 43'7
2025-05-17 40 231 12'7
2025-04-27 50 300 36'9
2025-04-13 50 201 2'2
2025-03-15 20 310 21'10
2025-03-02 30 290 37'7
2025-02-16 41 300 34'8