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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
ParisParis
0–3
FT
ToulouseToulouse

Momentum

– ParisToulouse –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Capacity
15,097
Surface
artificial turf
Attendance
15,822

Teams

Coaches
Stéphane Gilli · Carles Martínez Novell
Position
14 · 10
Formation
4-5-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Bastien Dechepy

Weather

Conditions
fog
Temperature
8.4° (feels 6.5°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
97%

Where to watch · 197

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Paris

WLLDD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 7.11–8.83 · xPts 6.43

  • D A Le Havre 0–0 xG 1.24–1.86 FRA L1
  • D H Auxerre 1–1 xG 1.62–1.42 FRA L1
  • L A LOSC Lille 2–4 xG 0.93–3.73 FRA L1
  • L H Rennes 0–1 xG 2.28–0.96 FRA L1
  • W A Monaco 1–0 xG 1.05–0.86 FRA L1

Toulouse

DDLDW 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 4 · xG 6.05–4.15 · xPts 8.16

  • W H Strasbourg 1–0 xG 0.53–0.11 FRA L1
  • D A Olympique Marseille 2–2 xG 0.6–1.35 FRA L1
  • L H Angers SCO 0–1 xG 1.79–0.48 FRA L1
  • D A Lorient 1–1 xG 1.41–1.35 FRA L1
  • D H Le Havre 0–0 xG 1.73–0.86 FRA L1

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Paris 01 draws1 Toulouse

Goals 1–4 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Paris 01 draws1 Toulouse

Goals 1–4 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Paris 01 draws1 Toulouse

Goals 1–4 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • D Toulouse 1–1 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Paris 0–3 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricParis all · 34Paris at home · 17Toulouse all · 33Toulouse away · 16
Results
Matches34173316
Points per game1.291.471.331.25
W / D / L11 / 11 / 127 / 4 / 612 / 8 / 136 / 2 / 8
Goals for / match1.381.651.421.38
Goals against / match1.471.591.391.38
Clean sheets24%24%27%19%
Failed to score26%29%30%25%
Both teams scored62%53%48%56%
Over 2.556%65%54%56%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.321.531.381.11
xG against / match1.621.601.261.38
xG difference-0.30-0.070.12-0.26
Finishing vs xG0.060.120.040.26
xPts / match1.251.391.471.24
Points vs xPts0.040.08-0.130.01
Game state
Scored first41%35%39%44%
PPG when scoring first2.142.672.381.86
PPG when conceding first0.630.800.610.78
Came back from behind33%40%38%33%
Leads held69%88%80%67%
Minutes leading23%25%24%24%
Minutes level49%40%45%47%
Minutes trailing28%34%31%29%
First goal (min)41414141
First goal conceded (min)40324044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%54%57%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%52%52%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.410.590.480.38
Late goals against0.380.350.300.38
Style
Possession50%52%42%41%
Shots11.713.512.810.9
On target4.04.54.33.8
Shot conversion12%12%11%13%
Shots inside box67%69%65%60%
Big chances created2.42.81.91.7
Corners4.45.54.53.8
xG from set plays26%30%38%36%
Goals from headers4%7%15%23%
Pressure index10.512.78.67.6
Dominant minutes46.054.538.235.5
Pass accuracy84%84%80%79%
Fouls10.610.814.414.8
Cards2.352.822.583.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Paris

0–15'73
16–30'99
31–45'59
46–60'510
61–75'76
76–90'1413

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Paris · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)-0.364
Late push (76+, level)-0.313

Game state

When ahead-0.062
When level-0.154
10 min after scoring-0.242

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.042
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.082
v bottom-tier opponents-0.162
As favourite-0.162

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.222
Conceded late (76+)-0.194

Ahead vs level +0.09

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Paris

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-310 29%1.51.92.01.421.79
5-4-18 24%1.00.750.881.041.42
4-2-3-17 21%1.431.571.01.341.09
4-1-4-13 9%2.02.671.671.962.36
4-5-12 6%0.50.01.51.052.0

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.2Draw 30% P 31%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.5Paris FC or Draw 32% P 33%1.36Paris FC or Toulouse 35% P 35%1.4Draw or Toulouse 34% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.91 49%1.82 51%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 46%1.72Under 54% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 32.5–35% · 336 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%36%+2.3
Draw31%32%29%-3.3
Away35%34%35%+1.0

In those fixtures: 2.2 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 40%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Bastien Dechepy

Career
99 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.14 (3.87 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
25.1 · 6.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 82 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.06+0.4276
Fouls / match24.624.3+0.23
Fouls per card5.86.0-0.33 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.36+0.5072
Time added6.56.7-0.0636
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.21

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-30 30 261 44'8
2025-11-08 31 342 45'10
2025-10-29 60 211 35'8
2025-10-18 31 291 34'11
2025-09-28 61 250 1'7
2025-09-14 · Paris 31 211 23'9
2025-08-24 40 200 22'9
2025-08-07 40 250 53'8
2025-07-24 60 342 21'6
2025-05-10 · Toulouse 70 290 51'6