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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
ToulouseToulouse
5–1
FT
NiceNice

Momentum

– ToulouseNice –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
25,284

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Claude Puel
Position
8 · 14
Formation
3-4-3 · 4-3-3

Referee

Gaël Angoula

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
9.1° (feels 9.1°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 194

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

LDWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 5.97–4.72 · xPts 7.7

  • L H Lens 0–3 xG 0.92–1.91 FRA L1
  • W A Paris 3–0 xG 2.14–0.87 FRA L1
  • W H Strasbourg 1–0 xG 0.53–0.11 FRA L1
  • D A Olympique Marseille 2–2 xG 0.6–1.35 FRA L1
  • L H Angers SCO 0–1 xG 1.79–0.48 FRA L1

Nice

LLLLD 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 8 · xG 5.97–6.83 · xPts 6.54

  • D H Strasbourg 1–1 xG 1.93–1.22 FRA L1
  • L A Lens 0–2 xG 0.68–1.28 FRA L1
  • L H Sporting Braga 0–1 xG 1.37–0.87 UEFA EL
  • L H Angers SCO 0–1 xG 1.09–0.72 FRA L1
  • L A Lorient 1–3 xG 0.9–2.74 FRA L1

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

Toulouse 1013 draws15 Nice

Goals 39–46 · 2.24 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 26%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 34 draws3 Nice

Goals 11–11 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 32 draws0 Nice

Goals 10–4 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Toulouse 5–1 Nice FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Nice 0–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Nice FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Nice 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 2–1 Nice FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nice 1–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Nice 0–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Nice FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–2 Nice neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nice 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Nice all · 34Nice away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.410.940.71
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 57 / 11 / 163 / 3 / 11
Goals for / match1.421.471.091.06
Goals against / match1.391.411.761.94
Clean sheets27%35%18%12%
Failed to score30%35%32%29%
Both teams scored48%41%59%65%
Over 2.554%53%50%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.241.11
xG against / match1.261.151.711.78
xG difference0.120.48-0.47-0.67
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.16-0.15-0.05
xPts / match1.471.681.120.99
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.27-0.18-0.28
Game state
Scored first39%35%38%41%
PPG when scoring first2.383.001.851.43
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.280.11
Came back from behind38%44%24%8%
Leads held80%100%54%43%
Minutes leading24%24%20%15%
Minutes level45%43%48%47%
Minutes trailing31%33%32%38%
First goal (min)41424242
First goal conceded (min)40353838
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%49%39%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%52%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.210.24
Late goals against0.300.240.350.29
Style
Possession42%43%46%47%
Shots12.814.711.29.5
On target4.34.83.93.5
Shot conversion11%10%10%11%
Shots inside box65%68%65%66%
Big chances created1.92.12.72.1
Corners4.55.15.14.6
xG from set plays38%38%27%28%
Goals from headers15%8%11%6%
Pressure index8.69.59.08.4
Dominant minutes38.240.840.939.2
Pass accuracy80%82%82%82%
Fouls14.413.912.412.5
Cards2.582.182.122.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Nice

0–15'59
16–30'67
31–45'813
46–60'79
61–75'410
76–90'712

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.402

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Nice · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.25) · stands out: when behind +0.41

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.254
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)-0.292
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.082

Game state

When level+0.174
When behind+0.413
10 min after conceding+0.023

Situations

At home+0.262
Away+0.242
4+ days rest+0.254

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.432
v bottom-tier opponents+0.082
Evenly matched+0.272

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.204
Conceded late (76+)-0.084

Behind vs level +0.23

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Nice

Current: winless 12 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 21%0.861.291.861.331.64
3-4-2-16 18%1.171.01.51.611.26
5-4-15 15%0.60.61.00.891.23
3-4-1-24 12%1.751.51.00.951.66
3-5-23 9%0.330.671.671.421.86

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 48%3.4Draw 28% P 27%3.9Away 24% P 24%

Double Chance

1.28Toulouse or Draw 37% P 38%1.3Toulouse or Nice 37% P 37%1.8Draw or Nice 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 53%2.0No 47% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 809 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-1.9
Draw27%28%29%+1.6
Away24%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Gaël Angoula

Career
31 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
3.35 (3.26 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
22.6 · 6.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.32
Cards to home side
38%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 32 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.284.06-1.644
Fouls / match21.824.3-1.24
Fouls per card6.76.0+0.83 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.36-0.4828
Time added8.76.7+1.5292
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
36% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.27

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-14 10 90 50'9
2025-11-23 50 192 56'8
2025-11-02 40 160 26'7
2025-10-19 40 170 8'8
2025-10-04 30 230 10'8