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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
BrestBrest
0–2
FT
ToulouseToulouse

Momentum

– BrestToulouse –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
19

Venue

Stadium
Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest
Capacity
15,097
Surface
grass
Attendance
13,823

Teams

Coaches
Eric Roy · Carles Martínez Novell
Position
11 · 8
Formation
4-2-2-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Guillaume Paradis

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
5.2° (feels 3.1°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
91%

Where to watch · 191

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Brest

WWLWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 5.08–6.11 · xPts 6.04

  • L A Olympique Lyonnais 1–2 xG 0.46–1.7 FRA L1
  • W H Auxerre 2–0 xG 1.79–1.34 FRA L1
  • L A Rennes 1–3 xG 0.84–1.24 FRA L1
  • W H Monaco 1–0 xG 0.77–0.82 FRA L1
  • W A Strasbourg 2–1 xG 1.22–1.01 FRA L1

Toulouse

DWWLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 6 · xG 6.51–6.44 · xPts 6.87

  • W H Nice 5–1 xG 2.32–2.21 FRA L1
  • L H Lens 0–3 xG 0.92–1.91 FRA L1
  • W A Paris 3–0 xG 2.14–0.87 FRA L1
  • W H Strasbourg 1–0 xG 0.53–0.11 FRA L1
  • D A Olympique Marseille 2–2 xG 0.6–1.35 FRA L1

All meetings · 17 matches since 2010

Brest 56 draws6 Toulouse

Goals 23–22 · 2.65 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 35%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Brest 53 draws2 Toulouse

Goals 21–13 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Brest 21 draws2 Toulouse

Goals 8–8 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Brest 2–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Brest 0–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 2–0 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 2–4 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Brest 2–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 0–3 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Brest 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Brest 3–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 2–5 Brest neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricBrest all · 34Brest at home · 17Toulouse all · 33Toulouse away · 16
Results
Matches34173316
Points per game1.151.531.331.25
W / D / L10 / 9 / 157 / 5 / 512 / 8 / 136 / 2 / 8
Goals for / match1.261.651.421.38
Goals against / match1.621.351.391.38
Clean sheets26%41%27%19%
Failed to score32%24%30%25%
Both teams scored47%47%48%56%
Over 2.550%47%54%56%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.291.681.381.11
xG against / match1.541.421.261.38
xG difference-0.250.250.12-0.26
Finishing vs xG-0.03-0.030.040.26
xPts / match1.281.611.471.24
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.08-0.130.01
Game state
Scored first47%59%39%44%
PPG when scoring first1.942.302.381.86
PPG when conceding first0.380.200.610.78
Came back from behind21%17%38%33%
Leads held56%70%80%67%
Minutes leading24%33%24%24%
Minutes level44%43%45%47%
Minutes trailing32%24%31%29%
First goal (min)35264141
First goal conceded (min)33274044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half49%50%57%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%39%52%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.240.480.38
Late goals against0.320.180.300.38
Style
Possession43%44%42%41%
Shots11.213.912.810.9
On target3.54.54.33.8
Shot conversion11%12%11%13%
Shots inside box63%63%65%60%
Big chances created2.23.01.91.7
Corners3.94.64.53.8
xG from set plays36%33%38%36%
Goals from headers21%25%15%23%
Pressure index8.110.28.67.6
Dominant minutes36.740.738.235.5
Pass accuracy78%78%80%79%
Fouls12.712.614.414.8
Cards1.851.762.583.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Brest

0–15'98
16–30'612
31–45'77
46–60'86
61–75'511
76–90'811

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Brest · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: when level +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.184
Early press (0-15, level)+0.424
Late push (76+, level)+1.122
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead-0.192
When level+0.654
When behind-0.073
10 min after conceding-0.204
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home+0.142
Away+0.212
4+ days rest+0.184

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.212
Evenly matched+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.124
Conceded when ahead+0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.204

Ahead vs level -0.84 · Behind vs level -0.72

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.402

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Brest

Current: winless 1 · conceding 13

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%1.421.381.421.351.38
4-3-35 15%0.21.02.21.512.04
4-1-4-12 6%0.51.53.50.512.69
3-4-31 3%0.00.01.00.271.95
4-4-21 3%3.02.00.01.791.34

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.0Home 31% P 31%2.9Draw 32% P 33%2.6Away 36% P 36%

Double Chance

1.44Brest or Draw 32% P 32%1.36Brest or Toulouse 34% P 33%1.4Draw or Toulouse 33% P 35%

Draw No Bet

1.91 49%1.82 51%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 45%1.8No 52% P 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.37Over 40% P 36%1.57Under 60% P 64%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 35–37.5% · 235 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%32%27%-4.3
Draw33%32%34%+2.2
Away36%37%39%+2.2

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes45%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 35–37.5% · 819 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.536%36%41%+4.2

Guillaume Paradis

Career
17 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
3.94 (3.82 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.06
Cards to home side
51%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.824.06-0.5520
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.46.0+0.49 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.060.36-2.900
Time added8.96.7+1.6696
First card
30' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-04 30 170 45'8
2025-11-30 20 180 48'8
2025-11-07 60 220 57'5
2025-10-25 · Toulouse 70 330 18'17
2025-10-05 40 230 6'7
2025-09-28 40 320 30'9
2025-09-13 20 300 44'11
2025-08-24 40 331 7'9