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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 33
ToulouseToulouse
2–1
FT
Olympique LyonnaisLYO

Momentum

– ToulouseLYO –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
26,683

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Paulo Rodrigues Fonseca
Position
10 · 3
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Bastien Dechepy

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
13.1° (feels 12.9°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

LLLDW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 13 · xG 4.97–8.15 · xPts 5.5

  • W A Strasbourg 2–1 xG 1.29–0.45 FRA L1
  • D H Monaco 2–2 xG 2.05–0.89 FRA L1
  • L A Lens 2–3 xG 0.27–3.34 FRA L1
  • L H LOSC Lille 0–4 xG 1.21–1.98 FRA L1
  • L A Paris Saint Germain 1–3 xG 0.15–1.49 FRA L1

Olympique Lyonnais

DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 11 GA 5 · xG 7.2–7.0 · xPts 7.54

  • W H Rennes 4–2 xG 2.16–0.9 FRA L1
  • W H Auxerre 3–2 xG 2.1–1.02 FRA L1
  • W A Paris Saint Germain 2–1 xG 0.85–3.34 FRA L1
  • W H Lorient 2–0 xG 1.11–1.3 FRA L1
  • D A Angers SCO 0–0 xG 0.98–0.44 FRA L1

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

Toulouse 89 draws22 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 40–68 · 2.77 per match · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 22 draws6 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 9–18 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 21 draws2 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 5–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Toulouse 0–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Olympique Lyonnais 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Lyonnais 0–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 2–3 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Olympique Lyonnais all · 34Olympique Lyonnais away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.761.35
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 518 / 6 / 106 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.421.471.561.35
Goals against / match1.391.411.181.29
Clean sheets27%35%44%41%
Failed to score30%35%18%29%
Both teams scored48%41%50%53%
Over 2.554%53%56%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.541.29
xG against / match1.261.151.391.53
xG difference0.120.480.15-0.24
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.160.020.06
xPts / match1.471.681.471.24
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.270.300.12
Game state
Scored first39%35%62%53%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.332.11
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.780.00
Came back from behind38%44%23%0%
Leads held80%100%78%67%
Minutes leading24%24%36%38%
Minutes level45%43%50%45%
Minutes trailing31%33%14%17%
First goal (min)41423727
First goal conceded (min)40354646
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%49%39%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%62%68%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.260.24
Late goals against0.300.240.440.59
Style
Possession42%43%55%53%
Shots12.814.712.311.0
On target4.34.84.74.6
Shot conversion11%10%13%12%
Shots inside box65%68%68%67%
Big chances created1.92.12.72.3
Corners4.55.15.95.2
xG from set plays38%38%26%27%
Goals from headers15%8%17%22%
Pressure index8.69.514.511.2
Dominant minutes38.240.853.448.8
Pass accuracy80%82%85%84%
Fouls14.413.913.012.7
Cards2.582.182.152.47

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Olympique Lyonnais

0–15'63
16–30'93
31–45'129
46–60'105
61–75'75
76–90'915

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Olympique Lyonnais · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.028
Early press (0-15, level)-0.118
Late push (76+, level)-0.353
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.332

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level-0.128
When behind-0.052
10 min after conceding-0.145
10 min after scoring+0.427

Situations

At home+0.094
Away-0.134
4+ days rest-0.017

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.032
v mid-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.094
Evenly matched-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.008
Conceded when ahead-0.115
Conceded late (76+)-0.327

Congested vs rested -0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.07

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Olympique Lyonnais

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%1.351.411.291.621.38
4-3-37 21%2.571.290.711.251.15
4-3-1-24 12%1.51.752.251.461.94
3-4-2-13 9%2.01.670.331.611.37
4-1-4-12 6%2.01.50.51.571.37

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.7Home 25% P 24%3.9Draw 24% P 25%1.85Away 51% P 51%

Double Chance

1.95Toulouse or Draw 24%1.22Toulouse or Lyon 38%1.22Draw or Lyon 38%

Draw No Bet

3.251 29%1.332 71%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 50–52.5% · 348 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home24%24%27%+3.4
Draw25%25%29%+3.7
Away51%51%44%-7.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Bastien Dechepy

Career
99 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.14 (3.87 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
25.1 · 6.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 82 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.06+0.4276
Fouls / match24.624.3+0.23
Fouls per card5.86.0-0.33 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.36+0.5072
Time added6.56.7-0.0636
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.21

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-02 20 160 47'5
2026-04-18 40 190 21'8
2026-03-22 40 260 32'7
2026-03-07 · Toulouse 50 290 12'7
2026-02-14 30 221 45'8
2026-01-31 90 300 16'7
2026-01-17 70 390 14'5
2025-12-13 · Toulouse 40 261 45'7
2025-11-30 30 261 44'8
2025-11-08 31 342 45'10