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La Liga · Matchweek 16
Atlético de MadridATM
2–1
FT
ValenciaValencia

Momentum

– ATMValencia –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Capacity
70,460
Surface
grass
Attendance
61,011

Teams

Coaches
D. Simeone · Carlos Corberán Vallet
Position
4 · 16
Formation
4-4-2 · 3-5-2

Referee

César Soto Grado

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
14.4° (feels 13.3°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
56%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 383116 953659 94 WWLWL
2 Real Madrid 382756 773542 86 WLWWW
3 Villarreal 3822610 724626 72 WDLLW
4 Atlético de Madrid 3821611 624418 69 WLWWL
5 Real Betis 3815158 594811 60 WDWLW
6 Celta de Vigo 38141212 53485 54 WWLDW
7 Getafe 3815617 3238-6 51 LDWLW
8 Rayo Vallecano 38121412 4144-3 50 WDDWW
9 Valencia 38131015 4655-9 49 LWDWW
10 Real Sociedad 38111314 5961-2 46 LDDLD
11 Espanyol 38121016 4355-12 46 LLWWD
12 Athletic Club 3813619 4358-15 45 WLLDL
13 Sevilla 3812719 4660-14 43 WWWLL
14 Deportivo Alavés 38111017 4456-12 43 LDWWL
15 Elche 38101315 4957-8 43 LDLWD
16 Levante 3811918 4761-14 42 LWWWL
17 Osasuna 3811918 4450-6 42 LLLLL
18 Mallorca 3811918 4757-10 42 WDLLW
19 Girona 3891415 3955-16 41 LDDLD
20 Real Oviedo 3861121 2660-34 29 LDLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Atlético de Madrid

WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 6.4–8.55 · xPts 5.57

  • W A PSV 3–2 xG 1.63–2.39 UEFA CL
  • L A Athletic Club 0–1 xG 0.51–1.06 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 1–3 xG 0.88–2.43 ESP PL
  • W H Real Oviedo 2–0 xG 1.95–1.08 ESP PL
  • W H Inter 2–1 xG 1.43–1.59 UEFA CL

Valencia

LDWDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 6.31–6.66 · xPts 7.33

  • D H Sevilla 1–1 xG 1.66–0.32 ESP PL
  • D A Rayo Vallecano 1–1 xG 0.71–1.75 ESP PL
  • W H Levante 1–0 xG 1.68–0.44 ESP PL
  • D H Real Betis 1–1 xG 1.68–1.04 ESP PL
  • L A Real Madrid 0–4 xG 0.58–3.12 ESP PL

All meetings · 46 matches since 2006

Atlético de Madrid 2314 draws9 Valencia

Goals 72–47 · 2.59 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Atlético de Madrid 81 draws1 Valencia

Goals 22–9 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Atlético de Madrid 50 draws0 Valencia

Goals 12–1 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Valencia 0–2 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Valencia 0–3 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Atlético de Madrid 3–0 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Atlético de Madrid 2–0 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Valencia 3–0 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Atlético de Madrid 3–0 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Valencia 0–1 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Atlético de Madrid 3–2 Valencia neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Valencia 3–3 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricAtlético de Madrid all · 38Atlético de Madrid at home · 19Valencia all · 38Valencia away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.822.421.291.00
W / D / L21 / 6 / 1115 / 1 / 313 / 10 / 155 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.632.051.211.00
Goals against / match1.160.891.451.68
Clean sheets37%42%24%26%
Failed to score13%10%24%32%
Both teams scored53%47%55%47%
Over 2.550%53%42%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.931.351.09
xG against / match1.260.911.251.48
xG difference0.231.020.10-0.39
Finishing vs xG0.140.12-0.14-0.09
xPts / match1.521.991.471.15
Points vs xPts0.290.43-0.18-0.15
Game state
Scored first76%79%42%37%
PPG when scoring first2.142.672.001.86
PPG when conceding first0.751.500.760.45
Came back from behind27%57%40%23%
Leads held68%88%68%62%
Minutes leading34%44%17%13%
Minutes level54%48%57%52%
Minutes trailing12%8%26%35%
First goal (min)31265250
First goal conceded (min)41314331
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%62%74%63%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%41%67%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.470.390.21
Late goals against0.260.210.340.37
Style
Possession53%55%48%46%
Shots13.115.411.89.8
On target5.16.33.23.1
Shot conversion12%13%10%10%
Shots inside box70%73%65%65%
Big chances created3.14.02.11.9
Corners6.57.85.14.2
xG from set plays24%24%32%34%
Goals from headers21%20%22%26%
Pressure index17.122.310.88.1
Dominant minutes55.665.944.736.3
Pass accuracy85%86%81%80%
Fouls11.210.112.111.6
Cards2.291.951.952.11

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Atlético de Madrid

0–15'135
16–30'77
31–45'910
46–60'84
61–75'118
76–90'1410

Valencia

0–15'53
16–30'48
31–45'37
46–60'812
61–75'1112
76–90'1513

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Atlético de Madrid · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+1.242
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.436
When level+0.357
When behind+0.363
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+0.576

Situations

At home+0.573
Away+0.234
4+ days rest+0.226

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.614
As favourite+0.415

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.237
Conceded when ahead-0.266
Conceded late (76+)-0.486

Congested vs rested +1.46 · Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level +0.01

Valencia · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.23) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.60

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.236
Early press (0-15, level)-0.276
Late push (76+, level)-0.544
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.103

Game state

When level-0.236
When behind-0.264
10 min after conceding-0.604
10 min after scoring+0.462

Situations

At home-0.323
Away-0.163
4+ days rest-0.265

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.224
Evenly matched-0.223
As underdog-0.253

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.386
Conceded late (76+)+0.055

Congested vs rested +0.12 · Ahead vs level +0.06 · Behind vs level -0.03

Atlético de Madrid

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-224 63%1.881.881.081.521.11
4-3-33 8%2.01.331.671.392.04
4-2-3-13 8%0.01.02.331.01.99
5-3-23 8%3.02.00.672.471.06
4-1-4-13 8%1.00.331.330.891.22

Valencia

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-224 63%1.251.211.421.31.27
4-2-3-19 24%1.781.330.781.540.92
3-5-22 5%0.01.03.01.791.49
5-3-21 3%0.00.06.00.142.48
4-3-31 3%3.02.00.01.050.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.3Home 73% P 73%5.5Draw 17% P 17%10.0Away 10% P 10%

Double Chance

1.06Atletico Madrid or Draw 45% P 45%1.16Atletico Madrid or Valencia 41% P 42%3.4Draw or Valencia 14% P 14%

Draw No Bet

1.081 88%8.02 12%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 47%1.8No 52% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 60%2.37Under 40% P 40%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 72.5–75% · away 10–12.5% · 193 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home73%73%73%-0.8
Draw17%16%18%+1.6
Away10%11%10%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.5 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 72%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%61%63%+1.5

César Soto Grado

Career
151 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
5.48 (5.21 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
25.5 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
50%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 103 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.485.08+0.7082
Fouls / match25.325.7-0.36
Fouls per card4.65.1-0.84 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.34-0.5421
Time added8.07.7+0.3557
First card
32' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.26

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-30 120 330 20'10
2025-11-09 20 200 47'7
2025-10-26 102 211 23'15
2025-10-05 · Atlético de Madrid 41 170 25'8
2025-09-23 50 310 42'9
2025-09-14 50 200 24'6
2025-08-23 · Atlético de Madrid 30 210 29'13
2025-07-22 60 270 45'10
2025-05-24 10 270 13'6
2025-05-15 51 180 42'9