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La Liga · Matchweek 28

Momentum

RAYLevante
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Capacity
14,708
Surface
grass
Attendance
10,975

Teams

Coaches
Iñigo Pérez · Luís Ferreira de Castro
Position
14 · 19
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

César Soto Grado

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
12.3° (feels 11.1°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
58%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 383116 953659 94 WWLWL
2 Real Madrid 382756 773542 86 WLWWW
3 Villarreal 3822610 724626 72 WDLLW
4 Atlético de Madrid 3821611 624418 69 WLWWL
5 Real Betis 3815158 594811 60 WDWLW
6 Celta de Vigo 38141212 53485 54 WWLDW
7 Getafe 3815617 3238-6 51 LDWLW
8 Rayo Vallecano 38121412 4144-3 50 WDDWW
9 Valencia 38131015 4655-9 49 LWDWW
10 Real Sociedad 38111314 5961-2 46 LDDLD
11 Espanyol 38121016 4355-12 46 LLWWD
12 Athletic Club 3813619 4358-15 45 WLLDL
13 Sevilla 3812719 4660-14 43 WWWLL
14 Deportivo Alavés 38111017 4456-12 43 LDWWL
15 Elche 38101315 4957-8 43 LDLWD
16 Levante 3811918 4761-14 42 LWWWL
17 Osasuna 3811918 4450-6 42 LLLLL
18 Mallorca 3811918 4757-10 42 WDLLW
19 Girona 3891415 3955-16 41 LDDLD
20 Real Oviedo 3861121 2660-34 29 LDLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Rayo Vallecano

DDWDW 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 4 · xG 6.17–5.33 · xPts 7.03

  • W A Samsunspor 3–1 xG 0.66–0.8 UEFA ECL
  • D A Sevilla 1–1 xG 0.38–1.02 ESP PL
  • W H Real Oviedo 3–0 xG 2.64–0.86 ESP PL
  • D H Athletic Club 1–1 xG 1.26–0.87 ESP PL
  • D A Real Betis 1–1 xG 1.23–1.77 ESP PL

Levante

LLLWD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 7 · xG 5.2–8.5 · xPts 5.12

  • D H Girona 1–1 xG 0.89–1.7 ESP PL
  • W H Deportivo Alavés 2–0 xG 2.02–1.49 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 0–3 xG 0.48–2.89 ESP PL
  • L H Villarreal 0–1 xG 1.08–1.92 ESP PL
  • L H Valencia 0–2 xG 0.73–0.5 ESP PL

All meetings · 16 matches since 2011

Rayo Vallecano 83 draws5 Levante

Goals 33–25 · 3.63 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 75%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Rayo Vallecano 52 draws3 Levante

Goals 20–16 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano 12 draws2 Levante

Goals 8–10 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Levante ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Levante 0–3 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Rayo Vallecano 2–4 Levante ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Levante 1–1 Rayo Vallecano neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Levante 4–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Levante ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Rayo Vallecano 3–1 Levante ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Levante 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Rayo Vallecano 4–2 Levante ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Levante 0–2 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricRayo Vallecano all · 38Rayo Vallecano at home · 19Levante all · 38Levante away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.321.631.110.84
W / D / L12 / 14 / 127 / 10 / 211 / 9 / 184 / 4 / 11
Goals for / match1.081.261.241.11
Goals against / match1.160.791.611.74
Clean sheets32%42%24%21%
Failed to score32%16%32%37%
Both teams scored45%53%50%47%
Over 2.537%26%45%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.431.661.321.06
xG against / match1.351.091.581.75
xG difference0.080.57-0.26-0.69
Finishing vs xG-0.35-0.40-0.080.05
xPts / match1.441.751.220.98
Points vs xPts-0.12-0.12-0.12-0.14
Game state
Scored first42%58%37%32%
PPG when scoring first2.382.272.072.00
PPG when conceding first0.470.670.500.25
Came back from behind37%67%22%8%
Leads held67%64%65%57%
Minutes leading17%20%20%18%
Minutes level59%71%50%47%
Minutes trailing24%9%30%35%
First goal (min)50554543
First goal conceded (min)39543939
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%58%60%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half57%67%57%64%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.370.370.26
Late goals against0.320.320.450.58
Style
Possession53%55%43%41%
Shots14.016.512.510.4
On target4.85.83.93.7
Shot conversion8%8%10%11%
Shots inside box55%55%64%62%
Big chances created2.73.02.52.2
Corners5.76.64.33.3
xG from set plays25%25%35%25%
Goals from headers15%21%26%24%
Pressure index12.615.79.46.8
Dominant minutes50.459.737.329.7
Pass accuracy82%81%78%78%
Fouls13.412.012.311.8
Cards3.032.422.422.32

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Rayo Vallecano

0–15'26
16–30'66
31–45'117
46–60'56
61–75'77
76–90'1012

Levante

0–15'410
16–30'54
31–45'1012
46–60'89
61–75'69
76–90'1417

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Rayo Vallecano · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)+0.306
Late push (76+, level)-0.252
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.553

Game state

When ahead-0.135
When level+0.036
When behind-0.064
10 min after conceding-0.376
10 min after scoring+0.676

Situations

Against ten men+0.352
At home-0.083
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.052
v mid-tier opponents-0.103
Evenly matched-0.103
As underdog-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.246
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)+0.396

Congested vs rested -0.10 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.10

Levante · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.58

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.115
Early press (0-15, level)-0.275
Late push (76+, level)-0.082
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.332

Game state

When level-0.055
When behind-0.152
10 min after conceding-0.583
10 min after scoring-0.332

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.115

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.072
Evenly matched-0.122
As underdog-0.103

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.235
Conceded late (76+)-0.175

Ahead vs level -0.24 · Behind vs level -0.10

Rayo Vallecano

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 63%1.51.211.081.471.37
4-3-35 13%1.40.61.41.481.19
4-4-25 13%0.40.81.61.391.63
4-1-4-13 8%1.671.670.671.40.91
4-4-1-11 3%0.00.01.00.381.66

Levante

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-112 32%0.921.171.51.21.46
4-4-211 29%1.091.271.641.41.73
4-1-4-18 21%2.01.631.51.481.4
5-4-13 8%0.01.02.331.111.82
4-3-32 5%0.00.01.50.762.43

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.8Home 53% P 52%3.5Draw 27% P 27%4.75Away 20% P 21%

Double Chance

1.16Rayo Vallecano or Draw 41% P 39%1.25Rayo Vallecano or Levante 38% P 36%2.15Draw or Levante 22% P 24%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 50%1.8No 52% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.61Over 58% P 56%2.2Under 42% P 44%
5.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 20–22.5% · 722 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home52%51%55%+3.6
Draw27%27%26%-1.4
Away21%21%19%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 47%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

César Soto Grado

Career
151 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
5.48 (5.21 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
25.5 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
50%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 103 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.485.08+0.7082
Fouls / match25.325.7-0.36
Fouls per card4.65.1-0.84 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.34-0.5421
Time added8.07.7+0.3557
First card
32' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.26

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 40 180 42'5
2026-02-16 41 161 41'11
2026-02-02 20 241 44'10
2026-01-24 40 291 2'6
2026-01-11 · Levante 10 190 45'8
2025-12-20 40 271 61'6
2025-12-13 40 240 32'8
2025-11-30 120 330 20'10
2025-11-09 20 200 47'7
2025-10-26 102 211 23'15