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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12

Momentum

Casa PiaAlverca
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Pina Manique, Lisboa
Capacity
7,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
1,127

Teams

Coaches
Alexandre Miguel Nunes Santana · Custodio
Position
15 · 14
Formation
3-4-3 · 3-4-3

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
15.2° (feels 14.7°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
72%

Where to watch · 4

  • International Bet365
  • Portugal Sport TV Multiscreen · Sport TV1
  • Ukraine Megogo

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Casa Pia

LDLLD 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 15 · xG 5.66–8.56 · xPts 5.27

  • D A Benfica 2–2 xG 1.27–2.17 PRT PL
  • L H Estrela Amadora 3–5 xG 1.2–2.3 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting Braga 0–4 xG 0.18–2.04 PRT PL
  • D H Estoril 2–2 xG 1.46–0.75 PRT PL
  • L A Moreirense 1–2 xG 1.56–1.3 PRT PL

Alverca

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 6.98–6.97 · xPts 7.41

  • D H Rio Ave 1–1 xG 1.77–0.6 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting CP 0–2 xG 0.31–2.85 PRT PL
  • L H Gil Vicente 0–4 xG 1.47–1.44 PRT PL
  • W A AVS 3–1 xG 1.97–0.71 PRT PL
  • W H Vitória Guimarães 2–0 xG 1.47–1.37 PRT PL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Casa Pia 00 draws2 Alverca

Goals 1–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Casa Pia 00 draws2 Alverca

Goals 1–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Casa Pia 00 draws2 Alverca

Goals 1–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • L Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricCasa Pia all · 34Casa Pia at home · 17Alverca all · 34Alverca away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.880.881.150.76
W / D / L6 / 12 / 162 / 9 / 610 / 9 / 153 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match0.911.061.031.00
Goals against / match1.681.531.531.71
Clean sheets21%12%18%6%
Failed to score44%41%29%35%
Both teams scored47%59%56%59%
Over 2.544%29%50%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.940.981.160.93
xG against / match1.561.491.341.49
xG difference-0.62-0.51-0.18-0.56
Finishing vs xG-0.030.08-0.130.07
xPts / match1.001.071.291.06
Points vs xPts-0.12-0.19-0.14-0.30
Game state
Scored first29%29%35%24%
PPG when scoring first1.501.202.332.00
PPG when conceding first0.550.700.480.38
Came back from behind30%46%29%23%
Leads held46%29%71%60%
Minutes leading17%20%18%16%
Minutes level53%60%53%58%
Minutes trailing30%20%29%26%
First goal (min)42394940
First goal conceded (min)39474043
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%39%60%47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%62%54%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.180.350.24
Late goals against0.320.350.260.35
Style
Possession41%41%45%43%
Shots8.98.39.68.7
On target2.92.73.53.4
Shot conversion10%13%11%12%
Shots inside box62%61%64%62%
Big chances created1.71.82.11.6
Corners4.03.64.44.1
xG from set plays38%42%42%33%
Goals from headers19%22%26%24%
Pressure index7.18.98.47.5
Dominant minutes35.641.539.133.7
Pass accuracy72%71%80%79%
Fouls15.916.912.511.9
Cards3.003.242.382.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Casa Pia

0–15'57
16–30'33
31–45'815
46–60'49
61–75'512
76–90'611

Alverca

0–15'57
16–30'37
31–45'610
46–60'410
61–75'59
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Casa Pia · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.156
Early press (0-15, level)-0.136
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.654

Game state

When level-0.046
When behind+0.335
10 min after conceding+0.075

Situations

At home+0.423
Away-0.053
4+ days rest+0.156

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.122
v mid-tier opponents-0.102
As underdog+0.005

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.146
Conceded late (76+)-0.265

Ahead vs level +2.48 · Behind vs level +0.37

Alverca · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.066
Late push (76+, level)-0.382
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead-0.304
When level-0.126
When behind+0.164
10 min after conceding+0.176
10 min after scoring+0.035

Situations

At home-0.153
Away+0.123
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.033
v bottom-tier opponents+0.152
Evenly matched-0.292
As underdog-0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.414
Conceded late (76+)+0.126

Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level +0.28

Casa Pia

Current: winless 7 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-323 68%1.041.091.611.021.49
3-4-2-14 12%0.250.252.00.691.55
5-4-13 9%0.330.672.330.72.23
3-5-22 6%0.00.52.00.851.51
4-1-4-11 3%3.02.01.01.621.64

Alverca

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-325 74%1.241.081.361.231.27
3-4-2-17 21%1.141.02.01.061.42
5-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.641.93

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.5Home 38% P 37%3.0Draw 31% P 32%3.0Away 31% P 31%

Double Chance

1.4Casa Pia or Draw 34% P 34%1.36Casa Pia or Alverca 35% P 34%1.5Draw or Alverca 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 47%1.75No 53% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.4Over 39% P 38%1.53Under 61% P 62%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 30–32.5% · 302 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%37%38%+1.6
Draw32%32%31%-0.7
Away31%32%31%-0.8

In those fixtures: 2.2 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.538%39%39%+0.7

Ricardo Baixinho

Career
39 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
7.46 (6.79 yellow · 0.44 red)
Fouls / match
30.5 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.51
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 39 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match7.335.66+2.14100
Fouls / match30.527.8+1.39
Fouls per card4.24.9-1.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.440.37+0.5473
Time added9.27.7+1.8897
First card
28' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.23

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-14 · Casa Pia 90 390 35'11
2025-08-25 · Alverca 92 421 16'14
2025-08-18 60 290 41'11
2025-04-26 91 280 24'10
2025-04-11 70 300 8'9
2025-03-16 101 301 29'8