Nacional v Tondela · KickoffDNA

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14

NacionalNacional

3–1

TondelaTondela

Momentum

– NacionalTondela –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

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Season context

Nacional	at home	Stat	league	away	Tondela
46.1 #14	–	Ball possession	50.0	–	43.6 #16
12.6 #6	–	Shots total	12.1	–	10.6 #14
4.2 #7	–	Shots on target	4.1	–	3.4 #14
4.4 #9	–	Corners	4.7	–	4.0 #14
14.8 #4	–	Fouls	13.7	–	14.4 #6
1.4 #13	–	Offsides	1.5	–	2.0 #2
16.2 #5	–	Tackles	15.6	–	17.5 #1
90.6 #7	–	Attacks	90.3	–	81.2 #12
37.9 #11	–	Dangerous attacks	42.1	–	36.1 #12
332.8 #16	–	Passes	405.0	–	338.4 #15
3.2 #2	–	Yellowcards	2.6	–	2.7 #6
0.1 #10	–	Redcards	0.1	–	0.1 #10
0.7 #14	–	Assists	0.9	–	0.4 #18
– #8	–	Btts	48.0	–	– #17
– #10	–	Cleansheet	29.2	–	– #12
– #13	–	Draw	27.1	–	– #9
1.2 #9	–	Expected goals	1.3	–	1.3 #7
-0.1 #15	–	Expected goals difference	0.0	–	-0.5 #18
– #8	–	Failed to score	29.2	–	– #1
1.1 #11	1.4	Goals	1.3	0.8	0.8 #17
1.3 #11	1.4	Goals conceded	1.3	2.0	1.6 #7
0.3 #3	–	Injury time goals	0.2	–	0.2 #10
9.2 #6	–	Interceptions	8.6	–	9.2 #5
– #2	–	Lost	36.4	–	– #2
0.2 #7	–	Penalties scored	0.2	–	0.2 #5
6.8 #7	–	Rating	6.8	–	6.7 #15
3.1 #9	–	Shots blocked	3.2	–	2.6 #14
7.4 #9	–	Shots insidebox	7.4	–	6.4 #12
5.3 #6	–	Shots off target	4.8	–	4.6 #12
5.2 #5	–	Shots outsidebox	4.6	–	4.2 #11
– #12	–	Win	36.4	–	– #15

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 306 of 306
Goals / match: 2.68 (home 1.5 · away 1.19)
Home / draw / away: 41% · 27% · 32%
BTTS · over 2.5: 48% · 54%
Cards / match: 5.01 (reds 0.13)

Competition

Stage: Regular Season
Round: 14

Venue

Stadium: Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
Capacity: 5,132
Surface: grass
Attendance: 1,082

Teams

Coaches: Tiago Carvalho Margarido · António Rocha Simão
Position: 11 · 17
Formation: 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho

Weather

Conditions: scattered clouds
Temperature: 11.9° (feels 11.3°)
Wind: 8.8
Humidity: 83%

Where to watch · 3

International Bet365
Portugal Sport TV Multiscreen
Ukraine Megogo

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	34	28	4	2	66	18	48	88	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89	24	65	82	DDWWW
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74	25	49	80	WWDDW
4	Sporting Braga	34	16	11	7	64	36	28	59	WLDDD
5	Famalicão	34	15	11	8	42	29	13	56	DWDDW
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47	38	9	50	LWDLL
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37	49	-12	43	WLWLD
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47	64	-17	42	WLDWW
9	Vitória Guimarães	34	12	6	16	39	51	-12	42	WWLLL
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54	57	-3	39	LLDDL
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35	52	-17	39	LWLDL
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35	57	-22	36	DLDLD
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32	41	-9	36	DWDWL
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37	45	-8	34	WWLLW
15	Estrela Amadora	34	6	12	16	38	56	-18	30	LLLDD
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31	57	-26	30	LLLWD
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27	55	-28	28	LDWWL
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	27	67	-40	21	DDWWD

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	33	6	27	45	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	17	13	2	2	51	11	40	41	DDWWW
3	Benfica	17	11	6	0	41	13	28	39	WWDDW
4	Famalicão	17	9	4	4	27	12	15	31	DWDDW
5	Sporting Braga	17	8	6	3	34	18	16	30	WLDDD
6	Gil Vicente	17	9	3	5	28	17	11	30	LWDLL
7	Vitória Guimarães	17	8	4	5	26	19	7	28	WWLLL
8	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	20	21	-1	27	WLWLD
9	Alverca	17	7	5	5	18	23	-5	26	LWLDL
10	Arouca	17	7	4	6	27	30	-3	25	WLDWW
11	Estoril	17	6	5	6	29	26	3	23	LLDDL
12	Santa Clara	17	7	2	8	17	17	0	23	DWDWL
13	Nacional	17	6	2	9	23	23	0	20	WWLLW
14	Estrela Amadora	17	4	6	7	21	24	-3	18	LLLDD
15	Casa Pia	17	2	9	6	18	26	-8	15	LLLWD
16	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	17	29	-12	15	DLDLD
17	Tondela	17	2	7	8	13	21	-8	13	LDWWL
18	AVS	17	2	6	9	15	27	-12	12	DDWWD

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	33	12	21	43	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	17	12	5	0	38	13	25	41	DDWWW
3	Benfica	17	12	5	0	33	12	21	41	WWDDW
4	Sporting Braga	17	8	5	4	30	18	12	29	WLDDD
5	Famalicão	17	6	7	4	15	17	-2	25	DWDDW
6	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	18	28	-10	21	DLDLD
7	Gil Vicente	17	4	8	5	19	21	-2	20	LWDLL
8	Arouca	17	5	2	10	20	34	-14	17	WLDWW
9	Estoril	17	4	4	9	25	31	-6	16	LLDDL
10	Moreirense	17	4	4	9	17	28	-11	16	WLWLD
11	Casa Pia	17	4	3	10	13	31	-18	15	LLLWD
12	Tondela	17	4	3	10	14	34	-20	15	LDWWL
13	Nacional	17	3	5	9	14	22	-8	14	WWLLW
14	Vitória Guimarães	17	4	2	11	13	32	-19	14	WWLLL
15	Santa Clara	17	2	7	8	15	24	-9	13	DWDWL
16	Alverca	17	3	4	10	17	29	-12	13	LWLDL
17	Estrela Amadora	17	2	6	9	17	32	-15	12	LLLDD
18	AVS	17	1	6	10	12	40	-28	9	DDWWD

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Nacional

DLDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 4.95–10.02 · xPts 3.85

L A Alverca 0–1 xG 1.12–1.95 PRT PL
L H Benfica 1–2 xG 0.44–2.53 PRT PL
D A Estrela Amadora 1–1 xG 1.65–2.17 PRT PL
L H Famalicão 0–1 xG 0.37–1.76 PRT PL
D A Estoril 1–1 xG 1.37–1.61 PRT PL

Tondela

LDLWL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 5.73–8.04 · xPts 5.87

L H Porto 0–2 xG 0.58–1.9 PRT PL
W A Gil Vicente 1–0 xG 0.92–0.63 PRT PL
L H Vitória Guimarães 0–1 xG 1.75–1.51 PRT PL
D A AVS 2–2 xG 1.84–0.93 PRT PL
L H Sporting CP 0–3 xG 0.63–3.07 PRT PL

All meetings · 10 matches since 2015

Nacional 61 draws3 Tondela

Goals 18–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Nacional 61 draws3 Tondela

Goals 18–12 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Nacional 40 draws1 Tondela

Goals 11–5 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

W Tondela 0–2 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
W Nacional 3–1 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
L Tondela 2–1 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
W Nacional 2–0 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
W Nacional 3–2 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
D Tondela 1–1 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
L Tondela 2–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
W Nacional 3–2 Tondela neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
W Nacional 3–1 Tondela neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
L Tondela 1–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season

Metric	Nacional all · 34	Nacional at home · 17	Tondela all · 34	Tondela away · 17
Results
Matches	34	17	34	17
Points per game	1.00	1.18	0.82	0.88
W / D / L	9 / 7 / 18	6 / 2 / 9	6 / 10 / 18	4 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match	1.09	1.35	0.79	0.82
Goals against / match	1.32	1.35	1.62	2.00
Clean sheets	24%	29%	21%	18%
Failed to score	32%	29%	53%	47%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	35%	35%
Over 2.5	41%	53%	50%	65%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.22	1.31	1.27	1.18
xG against / match	1.63	1.63	1.56	1.60
xG difference	-0.41	-0.32	-0.30	-0.41
Finishing vs xG	-0.13	0.04	-0.47	-0.36
xPts / match	1.18	1.24	1.23	1.15
Points vs xPts	-0.18	-0.07	-0.40	-0.27
Game state
Scored first	38%	47%	32%	41%
PPG when scoring first	1.77	1.50	1.73	2.00
PPG when conceding first	0.50	0.88	0.30	0.10
Came back from behind	25%	25%	25%	17%
Leads held	56%	54%	46%	57%
Minutes leading	19%	22%	14%	17%
Minutes level	53%	53%	56%	48%
Minutes trailing	27%	24%	29%	36%
First goal (min)	44	40	41	44
First goal conceded (min)	42	38	42	40
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	60%	70%	63%	64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	60%	61%	60%	59%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.24	0.29	0.15	0.12
Late goals against	0.35	0.47	0.44	0.53
Style
Possession	46%	48%	44%	42%
Shots	12.6	12.5	10.6	9.1
On target	4.2	4.2	3.4	3.3
Shot conversion	9%	11%	8%	9%
Shots inside box	58%	59%	60%	56%
Big chances created	1.9	1.9	2.0	1.9
Corners	4.4	4.8	4.0	4.0
xG from set plays	41%	54%	46%	58%
Goals from headers	19%	17%	12%	8%
Pressure index	8.3	9.8	8.3	7.7
Dominant minutes	36.7	41.1	38.1	35.2
Pass accuracy	76%	76%	78%	80%
Fouls	14.9	14.2	14.4	15.0
Cards	3.35	3.76	2.71	3.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

0–15'48

16–30'43

31–45'77

46–60'67

61–75'88

76–90'812

Tondela

0–15'64

16–30'29

31–45'29

46–60'66

61–75'612

76–90'515

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nacional · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.246

Early press (0-15, level)-0.176

Late push (76+, level)-0.192

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.284

Game state

When ahead-0.492

When level-0.226

When behind-0.185

10 min after conceding-0.325

10 min after scoring+0.334

Situations

At home-0.193

Away-0.283

4+ days rest-0.246

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.162

v bottom-tier opponents-0.262

Evenly matched-0.193

As underdog-0.283

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.126

Conceded when ahead+0.192

Conceded late (76+)-0.136

Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level +0.03

Tondela

No pressure profile yet.

Nacional

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-3-3	18 53%	1.0	0.83	1.11	1.0	1.73
4-2-3-1	9 26%	0.89	1.22	1.56	1.32	1.58
5-4-1	3 9%	1.33	1.0	1.0	1.35	1.58
4-1-4-1	2 6%	0.0	0.5	2.5	2.22	1.28
4-4-2	1 3%	1.0	3.0	3.0	1.81	2.04

Tondela

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	21 62%	0.86	0.76	1.71	1.43	1.57
5-4-1	4 12%	1.25	1.0	1.0	0.91	1.77
4-3-3	3 9%	0.67	1.33	1.67	1.26	1.7
3-4-3	3 9%	0.0	0.33	2.33	0.86	1.51
4-4-2	2 6%	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.28	1.13

Metric	Nacional all · 10	Nacional at home · 10	Tondela all · 10	Tondela away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	1.00	1.20	0.90	0.80
W / D / L	3 / 1 / 6	4 / 0 / 6	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 2 / 6
Goals for / match	1.20	1.20	0.80	0.90
Goals against / match	1.50	1.20	1.70	2.10
Clean sheets	30%	40%	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%	50%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	30%	40%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	40%	60%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.24	1.27	1.12	1.11
xG against / match	1.78	1.37	1.71	1.70
xG difference	-0.53	-0.10	-0.59	-0.60
Finishing vs xG	-0.04	-0.07	-0.32	-0.21
xPts / match	1.10	1.35	1.13	1.06
Points vs xPts	-0.10	-0.16	-0.23	-0.26
Game state
Scored first	50%	60%	30%	40%
PPG when scoring first	1.80	2.00	2.33	1.75
PPG when conceding first	0.20	0.00	0.17	0.17
Came back from behind	14%	0%	29%	14%
Leads held	60%	67%	67%	50%
Minutes leading	19%	24%	12%	16%
Minutes level	45%	48%	55%	51%
Minutes trailing	36%	28%	33%	33%
First goal (min)	40	44	51	48
First goal conceded (min)	26	30	36	40
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	50%	75%	75%	67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	33%	42%	65%	71%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.20
Late goals against	0.20	0.20	0.40	0.60
Style
Possession	50%	51%	48%	42%
Shots	12.2	13.8	10.3	8.5
On target	3.3	4.1	3.1	3.0
Shot conversion	10%	9%	8%	11%
Shots inside box	57%	59%	57%	54%
Big chances created	1.8	1.9	1.6	1.6
Corners	4.3	4.5	4.1	4.0
xG from set plays	30%	27%	34%	46%
Goals from headers	33%	17%	14%	12%
Pressure index	9.1	10.2	9.7	9.8
Dominant minutes	42.0	44.6	42.2	36.8
Pass accuracy	79%	78%	81%	80%
Fouls	11.3	13.0	13.8	14.2
Cards	2.10	3.10	2.20	2.70

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

0–15'21

16–30'14

31–45'35

46–60'01

61–75'32

76–90'32

Tondela

0–15'11

16–30'14

31–45'01

46–60'13

61–75'24

76–90'34

Nacional

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 40%	0.75	1.0	1.75	1.65	1.67
3-4-2-1	4 40%	0.75	1.0	1.5	0.86	2.06
4-3-3	1 10%	3.0	2.0	0.0	1.13	1.35
3-4-3	1 10%	1.0	2.0	2.0	1.25	1.5

Tondela

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 40%	1.5	0.75	1.75	1.34	1.24
5-4-1	2 20%	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.54	2.15
4-3-3	2 20%	1.0	2.0	2.0	1.63	2.28
3-4-2-1	1 10%	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.62	1.28
3-4-3	1 10%	0.0	1.0	3.0	0.85	2.06

Metric	Nacional all · 35	Nacional at home · 18	Tondela all · 29	Tondela away · 14
Results
Matches	35	18	29	14
Points per game	0.97	1.28	0.93	1.07
W / D / L	9 / 7 / 19	7 / 2 / 9	6 / 9 / 14	4 / 3 / 7
Goals for / match	1.14	1.50	0.86	1.00
Goals against / match	1.37	1.28	1.55	1.93
Clean sheets	23%	33%	24%	21%
Failed to score	31%	22%	48%	36%
Both teams scored	49%	50%	38%	43%
Over 2.5	46%	56%	48%	64%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.26	1.41	1.24	1.19
xG against / match	1.67	1.57	1.55	1.57
xG difference	-0.41	-0.16	-0.31	-0.37
Finishing vs xG	-0.12	0.09	-0.38	-0.19
xPts / match	1.19	1.32	1.23	1.19
Points vs xPts	-0.22	-0.04	-0.30	-0.11
Game state
Scored first	37%	50%	38%	50%
PPG when scoring first	1.77	1.67	1.73	2.00
PPG when conceding first	0.48	0.88	0.33	0.14
Came back from behind	24%	25%	26%	22%
Leads held	56%	58%	50%	57%
Minutes leading	18%	22%	17%	20%
Minutes level	55%	55%	57%	50%
Minutes trailing	28%	23%	26%	30%
First goal (min)	44	44	39	44
First goal conceded (min)	40	37	42	42
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	62%	74%	60%	64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	54%	52%	64%	67%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.26	0.39	0.14	0.14
Late goals against	0.29	0.33	0.41	0.50
Style
Possession	48%	50%	44%	43%
Shots	12.7	13.3	10.4	8.9
On target	4.2	4.3	3.3	3.1
Shot conversion	9%	11%	8%	11%
Shots inside box	58%	57%	60%	54%
Big chances created	1.9	2.2	1.8	1.9
Corners	3.9	4.3	4.1	4.1
xG from set plays	39%	44%	45%	55%
Goals from headers	18%	18%	14%	8%
Pressure index	9.0	10.7	9.2	8.8
Dominant minutes	39.7	44.4	39.7	38.2
Pass accuracy	78%	78%	78%	79%
Fouls	13.4	13.1	14.8	15.6
Cards	2.89	3.33	2.90	3.14

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

0–15'48

16–30'45

31–45'79

46–60'67

61–75'109

76–90'910

Tondela

0–15'64

16–30'28

31–45'24

46–60'66

61–75'511

76–90'412

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nacional · 35 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.1535

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0035

Late push (76+, level)-0.1215

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1718

Game state

When ahead-0.3716

When level-0.1035

When behind-0.1225

10 min after conceding-0.1827

10 min after scoring+0.0424

Situations

With ten men-0.105

Against ten men-0.073

At home-0.1318

Away-0.1817

4+ days rest-0.1535

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.437

v mid-tier opponents-0.209

v bottom-tier opponents-0.0411

As favourite-0.056

Evenly matched-0.0515

As underdog-0.3114

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.2735

Conceded when ahead+0.4616

Conceded late (76+)+0.0533

Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.01

Tondela · 29 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.41

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.1729

Early press (0-15, level)-0.2229

Late push (76+, level)-0.2613

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1015

Game state

When ahead-0.2812

When level-0.2029

When behind-0.0319

10 min after conceding-0.1222

10 min after scoring+0.1715

Situations

Against ten men+0.077

At home-0.1915

Away-0.1514

4+ days rest-0.1729

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.416

v mid-tier opponents-0.207

v bottom-tier opponents+0.0011

As favourite-0.184

Evenly matched-0.0613

As underdog-0.3012

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.3929

Conceded when ahead+0.3612

Conceded late (76+)+0.0527

Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level +0.17

Nacional

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-3-3	13 37%	1.08	0.85	0.92	1.07	1.75
4-2-3-1	10 29%	0.8	1.2	1.7	1.41	1.57
3-4-2-1	4 11%	0.75	1.0	1.5	0.86	2.06
5-4-1	3 9%	1.33	1.0	1.0	1.35	1.58
4-1-4-1	2 6%	0.0	0.5	2.5	2.22	1.28

Tondela

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	16 55%	1.06	0.88	1.63	1.43	1.55
5-4-1	4 14%	1.25	1.0	1.0	0.91	1.77
3-4-3	3 10%	0.0	0.33	2.33	0.86	1.51
4-3-3	3 10%	0.67	1.33	1.67	1.26	1.7
4-4-2	2 7%	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.28	1.13

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 40%3.1Draw 30% P 30%3.2Away 29% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36Nacional or Draw 35% P 35%1.36Nacional or Tondela 35% P 35%1.57Draw or Tondela 30% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 51%1.95No 48% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.7Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 30–32.5% · 800 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	40%	39%	39%	-0.2
Draw	30%	30%	31%	+1.5
Away	30%	31%	30%	-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 44%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Yes	51%	51%	51%	-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	44%	44%	43%	-1.2

Ricardo Baixinho

Career: 39 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match: 7.46 (6.79 yellow · 0.44 red)
Fouls / match: 30.5 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.51
Cards to home side: 43%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 39 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	7.33	5.66	+2.14	100
Fouls / match	30.5	27.8	+1.39
Fouls per card	4.2	4.9	-1.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.44	0.37	+0.54	73
Time added	9.2	7.7	+1.88	97

First card: 28' on average
Card timing: 16% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 43% (league 48%)
VAR events / match: 1.23

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2025-11-29	8	1	26	0	43'	13
2025-09-14	9	0	39	0	35'	11
2025-08-25	9	2	42	1	16'	14
2025-08-18	6	0	29	0	41'	11
2025-04-26	9	1	28	0	24'	10
2025-04-11	7	0	30	0	8'	9
2025-03-16	10	1	30	1	29'	8

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2025/2026

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Nacional · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal

Tondela

Absences

Nacional

Tondela

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 3

Nacional

Tondela

All meetings · 10 matches since 2015

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

Tondela

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nacional · 6 matches

Tondela

Nacional

Tondela

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

Tondela

Nacional

Tondela

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nacional

Tondela

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nacional · 35 matches

Tondela · 29 matches

Nacional

Tondela

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 30–32.5% · 800 fixtures

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

Ricardo Baixinho

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 39 matches)

Recent matches