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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
ToulouseToulouse
1–1
FT
ParisParis

Momentum

– ToulouseParis –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
23

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
23,228

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Stéphane Gilli
Position
10 · 15
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 5-4-1

Referee

Benoît Millot

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
10.1° (feels 9.1°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 198

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

WWDLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 6.49–5.63 · xPts 7.05

  • L A Le Havre 1–2 xG 2.29–0.55 FRA L1
  • L A Angers SCO 0–1 xG 0.66–1.12 FRA L1
  • D H Auxerre 0–0 xG 0.78–0.85 FRA L1
  • W A Brest 2–0 xG 0.43–0.9 FRA L1
  • W H Nice 5–1 xG 2.32–2.21 FRA L1

Paris

WDDDL 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 4.44–8.62 · xPts 5.16

  • L H Lens 0–5 xG 0.63–4.0 FRA L1
  • D A Auxerre 0–0 xG 1.02–0.9 FRA L1
  • D H Olympique Marseille 2–2 xG 1.4–2.61 FRA L1
  • D H Angers SCO 0–0 xG 0.81–0.74 FRA L1
  • W A Nantes 2–1 xG 0.58–0.36 FRA L1

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Toulouse 11 draws0 Paris

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Toulouse 11 draws0 Paris

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Toulouse 11 draws0 Paris

Goals 4–1 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • D Toulouse 1–1 Paris FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Paris 0–3 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Paris all · 34Paris away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.291.12
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 511 / 11 / 124 / 7 / 6
Goals for / match1.421.471.381.12
Goals against / match1.391.411.471.35
Clean sheets27%35%24%24%
Failed to score30%35%26%24%
Both teams scored48%41%62%71%
Over 2.554%53%56%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.321.12
xG against / match1.261.151.621.64
xG difference0.120.48-0.30-0.52
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.160.060.00
xPts / match1.471.681.251.11
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.270.040.01
Game state
Scored first39%35%41%47%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.141.75
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.630.33
Came back from behind38%44%33%25%
Leads held80%100%69%50%
Minutes leading24%24%23%21%
Minutes level45%43%49%58%
Minutes trailing31%33%28%20%
First goal (min)41424141
First goal conceded (min)40354047
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%55%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%58%65%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.410.24
Late goals against0.300.240.380.41
Style
Possession42%43%50%49%
Shots12.814.711.79.9
On target4.34.84.03.4
Shot conversion11%10%12%11%
Shots inside box65%68%67%64%
Big chances created1.92.12.41.9
Corners4.55.14.43.2
xG from set plays38%38%26%21%
Goals from headers15%8%4%0%
Pressure index8.69.510.58.3
Dominant minutes38.240.846.037.5
Pass accuracy80%82%84%84%
Fouls14.413.910.610.4
Cards2.582.182.351.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Paris

0–15'73
16–30'99
31–45'59
46–60'510
61–75'76
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Paris · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)-0.364
Late push (76+, level)-0.313

Game state

When ahead-0.062
When level-0.154
10 min after scoring-0.242

Situations

At home-0.212
Away-0.042
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.082
v bottom-tier opponents-0.162
As favourite-0.162

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.222
Conceded late (76+)-0.194

Ahead vs level +0.09

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Paris

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-310 29%1.51.92.01.421.79
5-4-18 24%1.00.750.881.041.42
4-2-3-17 21%1.431.571.01.341.09
4-1-4-13 9%2.02.671.671.962.36
4-5-12 6%0.50.01.51.052.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 51.3h before kick-off · stale. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 30% P 48%3.3Draw 18% P 29%4.0Away 15% P 23%3.4Empate 18%3.4Tie 18%

Double Chance

1.25Toulouse or Draw 14% P 39%1.8Tie or Paris FC 10% P 35%1.33Toulouse or Paris FC 13% P 35%1.22Toulouse or Tie 15% P 35%1.8Draw or Paris FC 10% P 26%1.9Empate ou Paris FC 9%1.18Toulouse ou Empate 15%1.3Toulouse ou Paris FC 14%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 24% P 49%1.8No 26% P 51%1.75Não 27%2.0Sim 23%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 22% P 43%1.66Under 28% P 57%2.2Mais de 22%1.66Menos de 28%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 21%1.61Under 29%2.0Mais de 23%1.72Menos de 27%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-1.9
Draw29%28%29%+1.7
Away23%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Benoît Millot

Career
284 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.14 (3.93 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
25.5 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.28
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 83 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.994.06-0.2140
Fouls / match25.824.3+0.86
Fouls per card6.56.0+0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.36-0.5924
Time added7.06.7+0.3060
First card
35' on average
Card timing
19% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-01 41 220 9'8
2026-01-18 · Paris 40 300 22'10
2025-12-13 50 380 29'8
2025-11-23 · Paris 30 212 29'8
2025-10-29 40 230 43'7
2025-10-26 50 300 22'15
2025-10-03 · Paris 30 290 45'6
2025-09-14 10 172 45'12
2025-08-24 · Toulouse 10 240 63'14
2025-05-03 · Toulouse 50 220 14'7