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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 25
ToulouseToulouse
0–1
FT
Olympique MarseilleOM

Momentum

– ToulouseOM –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
31,788

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Habib Beye
Position
12 · 4
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Bastien Dechepy

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
12.1° (feels 11.5°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 289

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

DLLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 2 GA 5 · xG 7.04–3.91 · xPts 8.45

  • L A Rennes 0–1 xG 0.65–0.8 FRA L1
  • D H Paris 1–1 xG 2.65–0.59 FRA L1
  • L A Le Havre 1–2 xG 2.29–0.55 FRA L1
  • L A Angers SCO 0–1 xG 0.66–1.12 FRA L1
  • D H Auxerre 0–0 xG 0.78–0.85 FRA L1

Olympique Marseille

DLDLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 13 · xG 8.25–8.28 · xPts 7.19

  • W H Olympique Lyonnais 3–2 xG 2.05–1.3 FRA L1
  • L A Brest 0–2 xG 1.67–0.83 FRA L1
  • D H Strasbourg 2–2 xG 1.09–1.71 FRA L1
  • L A Paris Saint Germain 0–5 xG 0.84–3.03 FRA L1
  • D A Paris 2–2 xG 2.61–1.4 FRA L1

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

Toulouse 417 draws17 Olympique Marseille

Goals 33–63 · 2.53 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 45%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 03 draws7 Olympique Marseille

Goals 10–23 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 02 draws3 Olympique Marseille

Goals 7–11 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Toulouse 0–1 Olympique Marseille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Marseille 2–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Marseille 3–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–3 Olympique Marseille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 2–2 Olympique Marseille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Olympique Marseille 0–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 2–3 Olympique Marseille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Marseille 6–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Olympique Marseille 1–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–2 Olympique Marseille neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Olympique Marseille all · 34Olympique Marseille away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.741.29
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 518 / 5 / 117 / 1 / 9
Goals for / match1.421.471.851.29
Goals against / match1.391.411.321.47
Clean sheets27%35%26%24%
Failed to score30%35%24%41%
Both teams scored48%41%50%35%
Over 2.554%53%62%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.701.61
xG against / match1.261.151.201.35
xG difference0.120.480.490.25
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.160.16-0.31
xPts / match1.471.681.691.55
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.270.04-0.26
Game state
Scored first39%35%59%47%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.402.38
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.790.33
Came back from behind38%44%31%10%
Leads held80%100%72%78%
Minutes leading24%24%38%28%
Minutes level45%43%41%43%
Minutes trailing31%33%21%29%
First goal (min)41423638
First goal conceded (min)40354647
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%59%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%69%68%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.500.29
Late goals against0.300.240.440.29
Style
Possession42%43%57%56%
Shots12.814.715.114.4
On target4.34.85.75.1
Shot conversion11%10%12%9%
Shots inside box65%68%64%64%
Big chances created1.92.13.02.6
Corners4.55.15.24.8
xG from set plays38%38%26%26%
Goals from headers15%8%10%4%
Pressure index8.69.517.615.8
Dominant minutes38.240.858.355.6
Pass accuracy80%82%87%87%
Fouls14.413.912.712.5
Cards2.582.182.532.65

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Olympique Marseille

0–15'95
16–30'106
31–45'73
46–60'1010
61–75'106
76–90'1715

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Olympique Marseille · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.105
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.064

Game state

When level+0.245
When behind-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.563

Situations

At home+0.282
Away-0.033
4+ days rest+0.105

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.173
As favourite+0.282
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.065
Conceded late (76+)-0.325

Ahead vs level -0.19 · Behind vs level -0.27

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Olympique Marseille

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-118 53%2.172.441.171.91.23
3-4-2-19 26%1.441.671.441.521.09
3-4-1-22 6%1.51.01.01.310.95
3-5-21 3%3.01.00.00.590.83
3-5-1-11 3%1.01.01.01.811.38

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.9Home 31% P 29%3.4Draw 26% P 27%2.1Away 43% P 44%

Double Chance

1.66Toulouse or Draw 28% P 28%1.28Toulouse or Marseille 37% P 36%1.36Draw or Marseille 35% P 35%

Draw No Bet

2.251 41%1.572 59%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 59%2.25No 41% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 54%2.2Under 43% P 46%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 50%1.72Under 54% P 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 42.5–45% · 505 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home29%29%23%-5.8
Draw27%28%27%-0.3
Away44%44%50%+6.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Bastien Dechepy

Career
99 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.14 (3.87 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
25.1 · 6.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 82 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.06+0.4276
Fouls / match24.624.3+0.23
Fouls per card5.86.0-0.33 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.36+0.5072
Time added6.56.7-0.0636
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.21

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-14 30 221 45'8
2026-01-31 90 300 16'7
2026-01-17 70 390 14'5
2025-12-13 · Toulouse 40 261 45'7
2025-11-30 30 261 44'8
2025-11-08 31 342 45'10
2025-10-29 60 211 35'8
2025-10-18 · Olympique Marseille 31 291 34'11
2025-09-28 61 250 1'7
2025-09-14 31 211 23'9