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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 27
ToulouseToulouse
1–0
FT
LorientLorient

Momentum

– ToulouseLorient –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
23,011

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Olivier Pantaloni
Position
11 · 9
Formation
3-4-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Guillaume Paradis

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
18.1° (feels 16.9°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
36%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 8.24–4.64 · xPts 8.97

  • W A Metz 4–3 xG 1.68–2.0 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Marseille 0–1 xG 0.97–0.7 FRA L1
  • L A Rennes 0–1 xG 0.65–0.8 FRA L1
  • D H Paris 1–1 xG 2.65–0.59 FRA L1
  • L A Le Havre 1–2 xG 2.29–0.55 FRA L1

Lorient

WDDDW 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 7.63–6.36 · xPts 7.62

  • W H Lens 2–1 xG 2.04–1.64 FRA L1
  • D A LOSC Lille 1–1 xG 0.59–0.64 FRA L1
  • D H Auxerre 2–2 xG 1.21–1.19 FRA L1
  • D A Nice 3–3 xG 2.52–2.13 FRA L1
  • W H Angers SCO 2–0 xG 1.28–0.77 FRA L1

All meetings · 29 matches since 2006

Toulouse 913 draws7 Lorient

Goals 31–26 · 1.97 per match · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 28%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 46 draws0 Lorient

Goals 15–11 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 23 draws0 Lorient

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Lorient 2–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 1–0 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Lorient 1–2 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Lorient 0–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 2–2 Lorient FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 3–2 Lorient neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Lorient 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17Lorient all · 34Lorient away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.320.88
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 511 / 12 / 113 / 6 / 8
Goals for / match1.421.471.411.00
Goals against / match1.391.411.501.53
Clean sheets27%35%21%18%
Failed to score30%35%29%53%
Both teams scored48%41%53%35%
Over 2.554%53%44%35%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.351.08
xG against / match1.261.151.381.57
xG difference0.120.48-0.03-0.49
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.160.07-0.08
xPts / match1.471.681.341.07
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.27-0.01-0.18
Game state
Scored first39%35%47%29%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.192.20
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.530.27
Came back from behind38%44%42%27%
Leads held80%100%65%60%
Minutes leading24%24%26%16%
Minutes level45%43%49%48%
Minutes trailing31%33%25%36%
First goal (min)41423738
First goal conceded (min)40354542
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%58%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%67%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.380.53
Late goals against0.300.240.470.41
Style
Possession42%43%45%45%
Shots12.814.711.310.7
On target4.34.83.93.5
Shot conversion11%10%12%9%
Shots inside box65%68%63%61%
Big chances created1.92.12.01.5
Corners4.55.13.53.8
xG from set plays38%38%33%30%
Goals from headers15%8%6%0%
Pressure index8.69.510.19.6
Dominant minutes38.240.842.842.1
Pass accuracy80%82%84%84%
Fouls14.413.99.59.5
Cards2.582.181.681.65

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Lorient

0–15'46
16–30'76
31–45'95
46–60'811
61–75'77
76–90'1316

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Lorient · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.96

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.124
Early press (0-15, level)+0.374
Late push (76+, level)-0.152

Game state

When ahead-0.322
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.522
10 min after scoring+0.963

Situations

At home-0.072
Away-0.182
4+ days rest-0.124

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.022
Evenly matched-0.232

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.214
Conceded when ahead+0.162
Conceded late (76+)-0.064

Ahead vs level -0.18 · Behind vs level +0.28

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Lorient

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-128 82%1.291.391.681.371.46
3-4-34 12%1.751.750.51.680.99
5-4-12 6%1.01.01.00.410.96

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.5h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.83Home 52% P 53%3.25Draw 29% P 29%5.0Away 19% P 19%

Double Chance

1.16Toulouse or Draw 40% P 41%1.33Toulouse or Lorient 35% P 36%1.9Draw or Lorient 25% P 24%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 50%1.9No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 17.5–20% · 551 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%54%52%-1.7
Draw29%27%27%+0.4
Away19%19%20%+1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Guillaume Paradis

Career
17 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
3.94 (3.82 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
24.5 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.06
Cards to home side
51%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.824.06-0.5620
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.46.0+0.50 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.060.36-2.900
Time added8.96.7+1.6796
First card
30' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 30 190 45'7
2026-02-06 20 210 7'10
2026-01-25 · Toulouse 50 320 15'9
2026-01-04 · Lorient 30 170 45'8
2025-11-30 20 180 48'8
2025-11-07 60 220 57'5
2025-10-25 · Toulouse 70 330 18'17
2025-10-05 40 230 6'7
2025-09-28 40 320 30'9
2025-09-13 20 300 44'11