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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 28
Paris Saint GermainPSG
3–1
FT
ToulouseToulouse

Momentum

– PSGToulouse –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
Parc des Princes, Paris
Capacity
48,583
Surface
grass
Attendance
47,710

Teams

Coaches
Luis Enrique · Carles Martínez Novell
Position
1 · 9
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Eric Wattellier

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
11.2° (feels 10.9°)
Wind
5.7
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Paris Saint Germain

WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 14 GA 5 · xG 9.93–5.18 · xPts 9.34

  • W A Nice 4–0 xG 2.69–0.46 FRA L1
  • W A Chelsea 3–0 xG 1.1–1.7 UEFA CL
  • W H Chelsea 5–2 xG 0.93–1.06 UEFA CL
  • L H Monaco 1–3 xG 1.92–1.27 FRA L1
  • W A Le Havre 1–0 xG 3.3–0.69 FRA L1

Toulouse

DLLWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 6.99–4.81 · xPts 8.11

  • W H Lorient 1–0 xG 1.05–0.72 FRA L1
  • W A Metz 4–3 xG 1.68–2.0 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Marseille 0–1 xG 0.97–0.7 FRA L1
  • L A Rennes 0–1 xG 0.65–0.8 FRA L1
  • D H Paris 1–1 xG 2.65–0.59 FRA L1

All meetings · 37 matches since 2005

Paris Saint Germain 255 draws7 Toulouse

Goals 74–31 · 2.84 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 49%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Paris Saint Germain 81 draws1 Toulouse

Goals 25–9 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Paris Saint Germain 40 draws1 Toulouse

Goals 14–7 · 4.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 3–6 Paris Saint Germain FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 0–1 Paris Saint Germain FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Paris Saint Germain 1–3 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Toulouse 1–1 Paris Saint Germain FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Toulouse neutral FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 0–3 Paris Saint Germain FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 0–1 Paris Saint Germain FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricParis Saint Germain all · 34Paris Saint Germain at home · 17Toulouse all · 33Toulouse away · 16
Results
Matches34173316
Points per game2.242.411.331.25
W / D / L24 / 4 / 613 / 2 / 212 / 8 / 136 / 2 / 8
Goals for / match2.182.411.421.38
Goals against / match0.850.711.391.38
Clean sheets53%65%27%19%
Failed to score6%0%30%25%
Both teams scored41%35%48%56%
Over 2.562%71%54%56%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.992.251.381.11
xG against / match0.980.801.261.38
xG difference1.011.450.12-0.26
Finishing vs xG0.180.160.040.26
xPts / match1.992.241.471.24
Points vs xPts0.250.18-0.130.01
Game state
Scored first85%88%39%44%
PPG when scoring first2.622.732.381.86
PPG when conceding first0.000.000.610.78
Came back from behind14%33%38%33%
Leads held83%87%80%67%
Minutes leading44%50%24%24%
Minutes level45%38%45%47%
Minutes trailing11%12%31%29%
First goal (min)38364141
First goal conceded (min)38254044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%58%57%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%42%52%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.530.590.480.38
Late goals against0.240.060.300.38
Style
Possession69%69%42%41%
Shots17.720.212.810.9
On target6.77.04.33.8
Shot conversion12%12%11%13%
Shots inside box63%61%65%60%
Big chances created3.73.51.91.7
Corners6.47.54.53.8
xG from set plays29%31%38%36%
Goals from headers15%12%15%23%
Pressure index27.430.38.67.6
Dominant minutes73.077.238.235.5
Pass accuracy91%91%80%79%
Fouls9.19.514.414.8
Cards1.181.242.583.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Paris Saint Germain

0–15'113
16–30'76
31–45'154
46–60'115
61–75'123
76–90'188

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Paris Saint Germain · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.47) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.475
Early press (0-15, level)+0.635
Late push (76+, level)-0.252
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.203

Game state

When ahead+0.283
When level+0.405
When behind+0.673
10 min after conceding+0.143
10 min after scoring+0.675

Situations

At home+0.582
Away+0.433
4+ days rest+0.475

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.232
v mid-tier opponents+0.472
As favourite+0.475

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.315
Conceded when ahead-0.223
Conceded late (76+)-0.424

Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level +0.26

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

Paris Saint Germain

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 36 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-333 97%2.32.240.852.030.97
3-5-21 3%0.00.01.00.661.17

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.5h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.27Home 75% P 75%6.0Draw 16% P 16%10.0Away 9% P 9%

Double Chance

1.06PSG or Draw 45%1.12PSG or Toulouse 42%3.75Draw or Toulouse 13%

Draw No Bet

1.071 89%9.02 11%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53%2.0No 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 66%3.0Under 32% P 34%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

2.51.8Over 51%1.9Under 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home75%76%77%+0.9
Draw16%15%15%-0.5
Away9%9%8%-0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.566%66%69%+3.2

Eric Wattellier

Career
147 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
3.39 (3.16 yellow · 0.18 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 6.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.4
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 94 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.434.06-1.368
Fouls / match20.624.3-1.90
Fouls per card6.16.0+0.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.430.36+0.6076
Time added6.36.7-0.2132
First card
40' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-08 20 161 27'9
2026-02-13 71 230 45'8
2026-02-01 · Paris Saint Germain 11 141 75'11
2026-01-25 10 151 72'8
2026-01-03 21 180 13'6
2025-12-07 30 221 45'7
2025-11-29 · Toulouse 30 170 42'7
2025-11-01 50 220 36'8
2025-10-26 41 341 61'11
2025-10-19 40 241 45'6