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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 29
ToulouseToulouse
0–4
FT
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille

Momentum

– ToulouseLOSC Lille –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Capacity
33,150
Attendance
24,568

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Bruno Génésio
Position
10 · 4
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Hakim Ben El Hadj

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
8.1° (feels 5.3°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
87%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Toulouse

LLWWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 4.49–5.72 · xPts 5.89

  • L A Paris Saint Germain 1–3 xG 0.15–1.49 FRA L1
  • W H Lorient 1–0 xG 1.05–0.72 FRA L1
  • W A Metz 4–3 xG 1.68–2.0 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Marseille 0–1 xG 0.97–0.7 FRA L1
  • L A Rennes 0–1 xG 0.65–0.8 FRA L1

LOSC Lille

LWLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 6.08–4.84 · xPts 7.21

  • W H Lens 3–0 xG 2.61–0.61 FRA L1
  • W A Olympique Marseille 2–1 xG 1.24–0.84 FRA L1
  • L A Aston Villa 0–2 xG 0.46–1.06 UEFA EL
  • W A Rennes 2–1 xG 1.39–1.66 FRA L1
  • L H Aston Villa 0–1 xG 0.39–0.67 UEFA EL

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

Toulouse 911 draws19 LOSC Lille

Goals 37–55 · 2.36 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Toulouse 11 draws8 LOSC Lille

Goals 8–20 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Toulouse 00 draws5 LOSC Lille

Goals 3–11 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Toulouse 0–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–4 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 1–2 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Toulouse 3–1 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D LOSC Lille 1–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Toulouse 0–2 LOSC Lille FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 2–1 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L LOSC Lille 3–0 Toulouse FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricToulouse all · 33Toulouse at home · 17LOSC Lille all · 34LOSC Lille away · 17
Results
Matches33173417
Points per game1.331.411.791.88
W / D / L12 / 8 / 136 / 6 / 518 / 7 / 910 / 2 / 5
Goals for / match1.421.471.531.65
Goals against / match1.391.411.091.18
Clean sheets27%35%38%41%
Failed to score30%35%29%35%
Both teams scored48%41%38%29%
Over 2.554%53%38%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.381.631.581.46
xG against / match1.261.151.041.20
xG difference0.120.480.540.26
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.16-0.050.19
xPts / match1.471.681.711.52
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.270.090.36
Game state
Scored first39%35%53%59%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.672.80
PPG when conceding first0.610.440.790.50
Came back from behind38%44%40%29%
Leads held80%100%86%91%
Minutes leading24%24%26%34%
Minutes level45%43%52%45%
Minutes trailing31%33%22%21%
First goal (min)41424834
First goal conceded (min)40354440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%72%71%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%54%62%60%
Late goals for (76'+)0.480.590.680.71
Late goals against0.300.240.210.18
Style
Possession42%43%56%55%
Shots12.814.713.612.4
On target4.34.84.64.5
Shot conversion11%10%11%13%
Shots inside box65%68%70%66%
Big chances created1.92.12.82.4
Corners4.55.15.75.1
xG from set plays38%38%30%30%
Goals from headers15%8%10%11%
Pressure index8.69.515.214.5
Dominant minutes38.240.861.459.8
Pass accuracy80%82%85%85%
Fouls14.413.910.710.9
Cards2.582.182.412.76

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Toulouse

0–15'95
16–30'49
31–45'78
46–60'58
61–75'66
76–90'1610

LOSC Lille

0–15'53
16–30'54
31–45'57
46–60'99
61–75'57
76–90'237

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Toulouse · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when level +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.014
Late push (76+, level)+0.262
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.182

Game state

When level+0.354
When behind+0.033
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.392

Situations

At home+0.422
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.422
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.063

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.044
Conceded late (76+)+0.104

Ahead vs level -0.73 · Behind vs level -0.32

LOSC Lille · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.055
Early press (0-15, level)+0.255

Game state

When ahead-0.065
When level+0.025
10 min after conceding-0.522
10 min after scoring+0.385

Situations

At home+0.023
Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.182
As favourite+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.265
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)-0.155

Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.26

Toulouse

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 70%1.01.041.391.251.2
3-4-39 27%2.332.220.891.611.24
5-4-11 3%0.03.06.02.362.75

LOSC Lille

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-129 85%1.931.550.91.580.98
4-3-32 6%0.50.52.00.861.28
5-4-11 3%0.01.04.01.963.0
4-3-1-21 3%1.01.01.00.640.59
4-4-21 3%3.04.02.03.730.93

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.7h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.4Home 28% P 27%3.2Draw 30% P 30%2.25Away 42% P 43%

Double Chance

1.61Toulouse or Draw 29%1.33Toulouse or Lille 35%1.33Draw or Lille 35%

Draw No Bet

2.371 39%1.532 61%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48%1.8No 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 42.5–45% · 322 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home27%27%26%-0.8
Draw30%29%32%+2.9
Away43%44%42%-2.0

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Hakim Ben El Hadj

Career
153 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.07 (3.86 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
25.9 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.064.06-0.0756
Fouls / match24.524.3+0.15
Fouls per card6.26.0+0.23 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.240.36-1.148
Time added6.96.7+0.2352
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.29

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-21 41 240 6'11
2026-03-01 81 150 19'6
2026-02-14 · LOSC Lille 10 180 12'5
2026-01-25 60 260 9'10
2026-01-04 20 230 47'8
2025-12-07 21 200 53'6
2025-11-22 11 161 19'7
2025-11-09 · Toulouse 40 242 32'6
2025-10-26 40 330 2'8
2025-08-22 –– 12– –8