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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 29
BrestBrest
1–2
FT
StrasbourgStrasbourg

Momentum

– BrestStrasbourg –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest
Capacity
15,097
Surface
grass
Attendance
14,539

Teams

Coaches
Eric Roy · Gary O'Neil
Position
12 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Benoît Millot

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
10.9° (feels 9.9°)
Wind
7.7
Humidity
71%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Brest

LDDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 13 · xG 2.8–11.49 · xPts 2.25

  • L A Paris Saint Germain 0–1 xG 0.27–1.95 FRA L1
  • L A Paris 0–4 xG 0.68–1.69 FRA L1
  • D H Lens 3–3 xG 0.34–3.7 FRA L1
  • D A Nantes 1–1 xG 0.32–0.95 FRA L1
  • L H Rennes 3–4 xG 1.18–3.21 FRA L1

Strasbourg

WLLLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 5.68–7.63 · xPts 5.39

  • D A Angers SCO 1–1 xG 1.89–0.82 FRA L1
  • L H Rayo Vallecano 0–1 xG 1.46–2.1 UEFA ECL
  • L H Toulouse 1–2 xG 0.45–1.29 FRA L1
  • L A Rayo Vallecano 0–1 xG 0.28–1.26 UEFA ECL
  • W A Lorient 3–2 xG 1.59–2.17 FRA L1

All meetings · 13 matches since 2019

Brest 54 draws4 Strasbourg

Goals 20–15 · 2.69 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Brest 43 draws3 Strasbourg

Goals 13–10 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Brest 31 draws1 Strasbourg

Goals 9–4 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Brest 1–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 1–2 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Strasbourg 0–0 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Brest 3–1 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 0–3 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Brest 1–1 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 0–1 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Brest 1–1 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Brest 0–1 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 3–1 Brest FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricBrest all · 34Brest at home · 17Strasbourg all · 34Strasbourg away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.151.531.561.35
W / D / L10 / 9 / 157 / 5 / 515 / 8 / 116 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match1.261.651.711.65
Goals against / match1.621.351.381.65
Clean sheets26%41%26%12%
Failed to score32%24%18%18%
Both teams scored47%47%65%76%
Over 2.550%47%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.291.681.461.42
xG against / match1.541.421.331.61
xG difference-0.250.250.13-0.19
Finishing vs xG-0.03-0.030.240.23
xPts / match1.281.611.441.25
Points vs xPts-0.13-0.080.120.10
Game state
Scored first47%59%56%41%
PPG when scoring first1.942.302.052.00
PPG when conceding first0.380.200.920.89
Came back from behind21%17%31%40%
Leads held56%70%65%60%
Minutes leading24%33%26%21%
Minutes level44%43%52%46%
Minutes trailing32%24%22%34%
First goal (min)35264144
First goal conceded (min)33273935
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half49%50%57%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%39%62%61%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.240.410.59
Late goals against0.320.180.350.35
Style
Possession43%44%54%56%
Shots11.213.911.510.9
On target3.54.54.64.2
Shot conversion11%12%15%15%
Shots inside box63%63%69%69%
Big chances created2.23.03.02.8
Corners3.94.64.23.5
xG from set plays36%33%23%26%
Goals from headers21%25%16%21%
Pressure index8.110.214.212.2
Dominant minutes36.740.754.752.8
Pass accuracy78%78%88%88%
Fouls12.712.611.112.6
Cards1.851.761.942.41

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Brest

0–15'98
16–30'612
31–45'77
46–60'86
61–75'511
76–90'811

Strasbourg

0–15'47
16–30'106
31–45'115
46–60'914
61–75'103
76–90'1412

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Brest · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: when level +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.184
Early press (0-15, level)+0.424
Late push (76+, level)+1.122
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012

Game state

When ahead-0.192
When level+0.654
When behind-0.073
10 min after conceding-0.204
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home+0.142
Away+0.212
4+ days rest+0.184

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.212
Evenly matched+0.303

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.124
Conceded when ahead+0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.204

Ahead vs level -0.84 · Behind vs level -0.72

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.204
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

Brest

Current: winless 1 · conceding 13

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 71%1.421.381.421.351.38
4-3-35 15%0.21.02.21.512.04
4-1-4-12 6%0.51.53.50.512.69
4-2-2-21 3%0.00.02.00.90.43
4-4-21 3%3.02.00.01.791.34

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%1.591.761.471.61.46
3-4-2-110 29%1.11.61.41.551.24
4-4-1-12 6%1.52.02.01.021.73
5-3-21 3%3.01.00.00.740.21
3-5-21 3%0.01.02.00.621.57

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.25Home 29% P 28%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.15Away 44% P 45%

Double Chance

1.5Brest or Draw 31%1.28Brest or Strasbourg 36%1.44Draw or Strasbourg 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46% P 45%1.72Under 54% P 55%
4.52.2Over 42% P 29%1.61Under 58% P 71%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 45–47.5% · 218 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home28%28%34%+6.0
Draw27%26%22%-3.6
Away45%46%44%-2.4

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 59%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Benoît Millot

Career
284 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.14 (3.93 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
25.5 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.28
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 82 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.994.06-0.2040
Fouls / match25.924.3+0.89
Fouls per card6.66.0+0.72 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.36-0.5624
Time added7.06.7+0.3060
First card
35' on average
Card timing
19% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.2

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-26 · Strasbourg 30 251 25'11
2026-04-05 40 370 17'8
2026-03-15 · Strasbourg 10 280 37'8
2026-02-21 70 200 34'10
2026-02-01 41 220 9'8
2026-01-18 40 300 22'10
2025-12-13 · Brest 50 380 29'8
2025-11-23 30 212 29'8
2025-10-29 · Brest 40 230 43'7
2025-10-26 50 300 22'15