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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15

Momentum

TondelaCasa Pia
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Capacity
5,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
1,673

Teams

Coaches
António Rocha Simão · Gonçalo Brandão
Position
17 · 16
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
2.6° (feels 2.6°)
Wind
0.7
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 3

  • International Bet365
  • Portugal Sport TV Multiscreen · Sport TV1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Tondela

DLWLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 9.13–7.32 · xPts 7.8

  • L A Nacional 1–3 xG 4.04–2.35 PRT PL
  • L H Porto 0–2 xG 0.58–1.9 PRT PL
  • W A Gil Vicente 1–0 xG 0.92–0.63 PRT PL
  • L H Vitória Guimarães 0–1 xG 1.75–1.51 PRT PL
  • D A AVS 2–2 xG 1.84–0.93 PRT PL

Casa Pia

LDLLD 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 3.46–7.68 · xPts 3.65

  • D H Gil Vicente 1–1 xG 0.22–0.83 PRT PL
  • L A Santa Clara 0–1 xG 0.48–1.18 PRT PL
  • L H Alverca 0–2 xG 0.29–1.2 PRT PL
  • D A Benfica 2–2 xG 1.27–2.17 PRT PL
  • L H Estrela Amadora 3–5 xG 1.2–2.3 PRT PL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Tondela 10 draws1 Casa Pia

Goals 2–2 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Tondela 10 draws1 Casa Pia

Goals 2–2 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Tondela 10 draws1 Casa Pia

Goals 2–2 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Tondela 1–2 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricTondela all · 34Tondela at home · 17Casa Pia all · 34Casa Pia away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.820.760.880.88
W / D / L6 / 10 / 182 / 7 / 86 / 12 / 164 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match0.790.760.910.76
Goals against / match1.621.241.681.82
Clean sheets21%24%21%29%
Failed to score53%59%44%47%
Both teams scored35%35%47%35%
Over 2.550%35%44%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.271.350.940.91
xG against / match1.561.531.561.63
xG difference-0.30-0.18-0.62-0.72
Finishing vs xG-0.47-0.59-0.03-0.14
xPts / match1.231.301.000.94
Points vs xPts-0.40-0.54-0.12-0.06
Game state
Scored first32%24%29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.731.251.501.80
PPG when conceding first0.300.500.550.40
Came back from behind25%33%30%17%
Leads held46%33%46%67%
Minutes leading14%12%17%14%
Minutes level56%65%53%46%
Minutes trailing29%23%30%40%
First goal (min)41384244
First goal conceded (min)42443928
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%62%48%62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half60%62%56%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.180.180.18
Late goals against0.440.350.320.29
Style
Possession44%45%41%41%
Shots10.612.18.99.4
On target3.43.52.93.0
Shot conversion8%6%10%8%
Shots inside box60%63%62%62%
Big chances created2.02.01.71.6
Corners4.03.94.04.5
xG from set plays46%36%38%34%
Goals from headers12%17%19%15%
Pressure index8.38.97.15.3
Dominant minutes38.141.135.629.6
Pass accuracy78%77%72%74%
Fouls14.413.915.915.0
Cards2.712.413.002.76

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Tondela

0–15'64
16–30'29
31–45'29
46–60'66
61–75'612
76–90'515

Casa Pia

0–15'57
16–30'33
31–45'815
46–60'49
61–75'512
76–90'611

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Tondela

No pressure profile yet.

Casa Pia · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.156
Early press (0-15, level)-0.136
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.654

Game state

When level-0.046
When behind+0.335
10 min after conceding+0.075

Situations

At home+0.423
Away-0.053
4+ days rest+0.156

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.122
v mid-tier opponents-0.102
As underdog+0.005

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.146
Conceded late (76+)-0.265

Ahead vs level +2.48 · Behind vs level +0.37

Tondela

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%0.860.761.711.431.57
5-4-14 12%1.251.01.00.911.77
3-4-33 9%0.00.332.330.861.51
4-3-33 9%0.671.331.671.261.7
4-4-22 6%1.51.01.01.281.13

Casa Pia

Current: winless 7 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-323 68%1.041.091.611.021.49
3-4-2-14 12%0.250.252.00.691.55
5-4-13 9%0.330.672.330.72.23
3-5-22 6%0.00.52.00.851.51
4-1-4-11 3%3.02.01.01.621.64

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.1Draw 30% P 30%3.4Away 28% P 28%

Double Chance

1.28Tondela or Draw 37% P 36%1.36Tondela or Casa Pia 35% P 35%1.66Draw or Casa Pia 28% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 47%1.75No 53% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.4Over 39% P 40%1.53Under 61% P 60%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%42%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.4
Away28%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.540%39%39%+0.7

Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Career
19 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
5.37 (5.26 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
29.0 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.32
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 18 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.395.66-0.3233
Fouls / match29.027.8+0.59
Fouls per card5.74.9+0.75 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.440.37+0.6076
Time added8.37.7+0.8385
First card
28' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 47% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.25

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-15 60 301 48'8
2025-10-26 60 281 40'12
2025-09-28 30 110 12'18
2025-05-11 80 360 33'8
2025-04-12 70 420 34'2
2025-03-30 61 390 16'10
2025-02-15 60 291 25'11
2025-01-18 40 300 38'9