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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 15

Momentum

VSCSporting CP
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Capacity
30,029
Surface
grass
Attendance
25,097

Teams

Coaches
Luís Correia Pinto · Rui Borges
Position
7 · 2
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-4-2

Referee

Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
7.4° (feels 6.8°)
Wind
1.3
Humidity
85%

Where to watch · 17

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Vitória Guimarães

LWWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 5.59–6.0 · xPts 6.92

  • W A Rio Ave 1–0 xG 1.68–0.4 PRT PL
  • D H Gil Vicente 0–0 xG 0.49–0.32 PRT PL
  • W H AVS 4–0 xG 1.43–1.04 PRT PL
  • W A Tondela 1–0 xG 1.51–1.75 PRT PL
  • L H Benfica 0–3 xG 0.47–2.5 PRT PL

Sporting CP

WWDLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 15 GA 4 · xG 7.03–5.23 · xPts 8.11

  • W H AVS 6–0 xG 2.53–0.65 PRT PL
  • L A FC Bayern München 1–3 xG 0.33–2.21 UEFA CL
  • D A Benfica 1–1 xG 0.41–1.57 PRT PL
  • W H Estrela Amadora 4–0 xG 1.62–0.17 PRT PL
  • W H Club Brugge 3–0 xG 2.14–0.62 UEFA CL

All meetings · 41 matches since 2005

Vitória Guimarães 59 draws27 Sporting CP

Goals 35–89 · 3.02 per match · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 51%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Vitória Guimarães 11 draws8 Sporting CP

Goals 12–31 · 4.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Vitória Guimarães 01 draws4 Sporting CP

Goals 8–18 · 5.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Sporting CP 3–2 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Sporting CP 5–1 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Vitória Guimarães 1–4 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Sporting CP 2–0 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Vitória Guimarães 4–4 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Sporting CP 3–0 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Vitória Guimarães 3–2 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Vitória Guimarães 0–2 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Sporting CP 3–0 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Vitória Guimarães 1–3 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricVitória Guimarães all · 34Vitória Guimarães at home · 17Sporting CP all · 34Sporting CP away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.241.652.412.41
W / D / L12 / 6 / 168 / 4 / 525 / 7 / 212 / 5 / 0
Goals for / match1.151.532.622.24
Goals against / match1.501.120.710.76
Clean sheets29%29%44%29%
Failed to score35%24%0%0%
Both teams scored41%53%56%71%
Over 2.544%53%71%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.271.332.091.90
xG against / match1.291.210.820.91
xG difference-0.020.131.270.99
Finishing vs xG-0.120.200.530.34
xPts / match1.381.482.121.98
Points vs xPts-0.150.170.300.44
Game state
Scored first41%41%76%71%
PPG when scoring first2.142.432.542.33
PPG when conceding first0.561.112.002.60
Came back from behind20%44%75%100%
Leads held71%80%81%75%
Minutes leading16%20%45%41%
Minutes level55%60%48%51%
Minutes trailing29%20%7%8%
First goal (min)45453937
First goal conceded (min)37445042
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half56%65%57%60%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%58%67%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.180.650.59
Late goals against0.290.290.320.24
Style
Possession51%50%62%63%
Shots13.313.517.616.1
On target3.94.16.86.1
Shot conversion9%11%15%14%
Shots inside box56%58%68%65%
Big chances created1.61.63.63.3
Corners4.44.46.97.5
xG from set plays35%43%24%23%
Goals from headers16%15%16%17%
Pressure index12.914.024.622.6
Dominant minutes53.853.969.668.8
Pass accuracy82%82%88%88%
Fouls14.515.512.212.3
Cards2.412.762.182.82

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Vitória Guimarães

0–15'27
16–30'87
31–45'79
46–60'68
61–75'1010
76–90'610

Sporting CP

0–15'74
16–30'103
31–45'211
46–60'132
61–75'163
76–90'2211

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Vitória Guimarães · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.22) · stands out: at home +0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.226
Early press (0-15, level)-0.226
Late push (76+, level)+0.163
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.154

Game state

When level+0.176
When behind+0.434
10 min after conceding+0.224
10 min after scoring+0.373

Situations

At home+0.493
Away-0.073
4+ days rest+0.226

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.312
v bottom-tier opponents+0.464
As favourite+0.464
As underdog-0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.246
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.27

Sporting CP · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.16) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.167
Early press (0-15, level)-0.037
Late push (76+, level)-0.192

Game state

When ahead+0.107
When level+0.317
10 min after conceding-0.495
10 min after scoring+0.187

Situations

At home+0.054
Away+0.323
4+ days rest+0.167

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.013
v bottom-tier opponents+0.363
As favourite+0.167

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.157
Conceded when ahead-0.237
Conceded late (76+)-0.196

Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level -0.80

Vitória Guimarães

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-125 74%1.160.961.481.191.32
4-4-23 9%2.02.01.331.451.41
3-4-32 6%1.51.52.01.141.39
4-3-32 6%2.03.00.52.440.4
4-1-4-11 3%0.00.02.01.351.13

Sporting CP

Current: unbeaten 12 · winless 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-132 94%2.382.530.722.020.83
4-4-22 6%3.04.00.53.230.69

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.25Home 15% P 13%4.33Draw 21% P 21%1.45Away 64% P 66%

Double Chance

2.62Guimaraes or Draw 18% P 17%1.18Guimaraes or Sporting 40% P 40%1.12Draw or Sporting 42% P 43%

Draw No Bet

5.01 19%1.162 81%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 46%1.75No 53% P 54%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.85Over 51% P 51%1.95Under 49% P 49%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 12.5–15% · away 65–67.5% · 254 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home13%14%13%-0.7
Draw21%20%21%+1.1
Away66%66%66%-0.5

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes46%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Career
86 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.77 (4.48 yellow · 0.16 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 68 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.825.66-1.0421
Fouls / match26.227.8-0.83
Fouls per card5.54.9+0.55 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.37-0.1542
Time added7.47.7-0.2230
First card
35' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.2

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-01 41 201 13'6
2025-11-01 31 241 21'6
2025-10-05 80 210 45'6
2025-09-27 90 382 27'8
2025-09-14 · Vitória Guimarães 20 210 71'12
2025-09-06 50 271 37'9
2025-08-17 30 211 24'7
2025-08-07 20 210 65'8
2025-07-29 31 320 5'9
2025-05-17 61 231 33'10