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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16

Momentum

PortoAVS
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Capacity
50,033
Surface
grass
Attendance
48,097

Teams

Coaches
Francesco Farioli · João Oliveira Nunes Henriques
Position
1 · 18
Formation
4-3-3 · 5-4-1

Referee

Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
6.7° (feels 6.7°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 12

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Porto

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 2 · xG 10.69–2.96 · xPts 11.3

  • W A Alverca 3–0 xG 1.25–0.68 PRT PL
  • W H Estrela Amadora 3–1 xG 3.49–0.26 PRT PL
  • W H Malmö FF 2–1 xG 2.68–0.72 UEFA EL
  • W A Tondela 2–0 xG 1.9–0.58 PRT PL
  • W H Estoril 1–0 xG 1.37–0.72 PRT PL

AVS

DLLLD 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 15 · xG 5.53–10.19 · xPts 4.23

  • D H Nacional 2–2 xG 1.1–1.43 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting CP 0–6 xG 0.65–2.53 PRT PL
  • L H Rio Ave 1–2 xG 0.97–2.54 PRT PL
  • L A Vitória Guimarães 0–4 xG 1.04–1.43 PRT PL
  • D H Gil Vicente 1–1 xG 1.77–2.26 PRT PL

All meetings · 4 matches since 2024

Porto 30 draws1 AVS

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Porto 30 draws1 AVS

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Porto 30 draws1 AVS

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • L AVS 3–1 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 2–0 AVS PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 2–0 AVS PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W AVS 0–5 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricPorto all · 34Porto at home · 17AVS all · 34AVS away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.592.650.620.53
W / D / L28 / 4 / 214 / 3 / 03 / 12 / 191 / 6 / 10
Goals for / match1.941.940.790.71
Goals against / match0.530.351.972.35
Clean sheets62%71%15%18%
Failed to score3%6%53%59%
Both teams scored38%29%44%41%
Over 2.556%47%59%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.861.850.910.91
xG against / match0.710.581.851.88
xG difference1.161.27-0.94-0.97
Finishing vs xG0.080.09-0.11-0.20
xPts / match2.072.120.820.81
Points vs xPts0.520.53-0.20-0.28
Game state
Scored first85%94%15%6%
PPG when scoring first2.792.751.400.00
PPG when conceding first1.500.400.46
Came back from behind50%30%29%
Leads held90%88%33%25%
Minutes leading51%54%9%6%
Minutes level43%46%50%46%
Minutes trailing6%0%42%48%
First goal (min)36334854
First goal conceded (min)56653024
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half56%52%63%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half78%100%52%48%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.210.24
Late goals against0.180.120.260.29
Style
Possession55%56%39%39%
Shots14.514.611.110.7
On target5.35.43.12.5
Shot conversion13%13%7%7%
Shots inside box66%68%54%53%
Big chances created2.92.91.41.4
Corners5.65.63.73.9
xG from set plays31%33%39%39%
Goals from headers14%6%11%17%
Pressure index19.920.85.34.9
Dominant minutes64.864.929.125.1
Pass accuracy84%85%73%72%
Fouls13.913.613.813.4
Cards2.532.122.501.94

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Porto

0–15'91
16–30'82
31–45'121
46–60'135
61–75'123
76–90'126

AVS

0–15'111
16–30'410
31–45'511
46–60'414
61–75'612
76–90'79

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Porto · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: when level +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.407
Early press (0-15, level)+0.717

Game state

When ahead+0.146
When level+0.807
When behind+0.193
10 min after conceding+0.203
10 min after scoring+0.616

Situations

At home+0.404
Away+0.393
4+ days rest+0.407

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.605
As favourite+0.566

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.126
Conceded late (76+)+0.026

Ahead vs level -0.67 · Behind vs level -0.61

AVS

No pressure profile yet.

Porto

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-334 100%2.591.940.531.860.71

AVS

Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-113 38%0.541.082.311.061.82
4-3-38 24%0.880.751.250.941.88
4-1-4-16 18%0.830.671.50.831.78
5-4-14 12%0.00.03.50.532.14
5-3-21 3%1.00.00.00.430.85

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.11Home 85% P 87%9.5Draw 10% P 9%19.0Away 5% P 4%

Double Chance

1.01FC Porto or Draw 48% P 48%1.05FC Porto or AVS 46% P 46%9.0Draw or AVS 5% P 7%

Draw No Bet

1.021 95%19.02 5%

Both Teams To Score

2.5Yes 38% P 36%1.5No 62% P 64%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 67% P 67%2.87Under 33% P 33%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 85–87.5% · away 2.5–5% · 296 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home87%86%88%+1.6
Draw9%10%9%-0.8
Away4%4%3%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 72%

Both teams to score · yes 35–37.5% · 141 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes36%36%38%+1.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.567%66%69%+3.2

Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Career
45 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.73 (4.53 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
27.4 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.4
Cards to home side
41%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 46 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.435.66-1.539
Fouls / match27.527.8-0.17
Fouls per card6.24.9+1.41 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.37+0.2352
Time added8.47.7+0.9491
First card
31' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.26

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-15 40 250 36'7
2025-11-28 · AVS 10 250 90'4
2025-09-28 31 321 16'10
2025-09-20 · AVS 20 281 29'8
2025-08-23 51 250 26'8
2025-05-16 80 290 17'5
2025-05-10 50 230 18'12
2025-04-13 81 390 28'2
2025-03-29 40 210 61'8
2025-03-09 30 260 52'6