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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 16

Momentum

EstorilAlverca
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Capacity
8,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
1,948

Teams

Coaches
Ian Cathro · Custodio
Position
9 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Fabio Verssimo

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
8.6° (feels 5.5°)
Wind
5.8
Humidity
89%

Where to watch · 6

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Estoril

WLDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 11 · xG 5.62–8.72 · xPts 4.96

  • W H Sporting Braga 1–0 xG 1.45–2.26 PRT PL
  • L A Famalicão 0–4 xG 0.77–2.5 PRT PL
  • D H Moreirense 3–3 xG 0.71–1.44 PRT PL
  • L A Porto 0–1 xG 0.72–1.37 PRT PL
  • W H Arouca 4–3 xG 1.98–1.15 PRT PL

Alverca

DWWLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.92–4.65 · xPts 7.66

  • L H Porto 0–3 xG 0.68–1.25 PRT PL
  • L A Arouca 0–1 xG 0.33–1.39 PRT PL
  • W H Nacional 1–0 xG 1.95–1.12 PRT PL
  • W A Casa Pia 2–0 xG 1.2–0.29 PRT PL
  • D H Rio Ave 1–1 xG 1.77–0.6 PRT PL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Estoril 11 draws0 Alverca

Goals 5–2 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Estoril 11 draws0 Alverca

Goals 5–2 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Estoril 11 draws0 Alverca

Goals 5–2 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • D Alverca 1–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 4–1 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricEstoril all · 34Estoril at home · 17Alverca all · 34Alverca away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.151.351.150.76
W / D / L10 / 9 / 156 / 5 / 610 / 9 / 153 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.591.711.031.00
Goals against / match1.681.531.531.71
Clean sheets15%12%18%6%
Failed to score29%24%29%35%
Both teams scored59%71%56%59%
Over 2.562%59%50%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.201.221.160.93
xG against / match1.591.651.341.49
xG difference-0.39-0.43-0.18-0.56
Finishing vs xG0.390.48-0.130.07
xPts / match1.131.101.291.06
Points vs xPts0.020.25-0.14-0.30
Game state
Scored first38%29%35%24%
PPG when scoring first1.852.002.332.00
PPG when conceding first0.701.090.480.38
Came back from behind40%50%29%23%
Leads held59%67%71%60%
Minutes leading23%24%18%16%
Minutes level40%48%53%58%
Minutes trailing37%28%29%26%
First goal (min)34374940
First goal conceded (min)30344043
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%52%60%47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half46%42%54%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.290.350.24
Late goals against0.240.120.260.35
Style
Possession53%53%45%43%
Shots11.712.19.68.7
On target4.14.53.53.4
Shot conversion14%14%11%12%
Shots inside box64%62%64%62%
Big chances created2.22.12.11.6
Corners4.44.64.44.1
xG from set plays32%26%42%33%
Goals from headers13%17%26%24%
Pressure index11.212.18.47.5
Dominant minutes46.849.339.133.7
Pass accuracy81%81%80%79%
Fouls13.012.512.511.9
Cards2.532.712.382.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Estoril

0–15'615
16–30'87
31–45'129
46–60'118
61–75'810
76–90'98

Alverca

0–15'57
16–30'37
31–45'610
46–60'410
61–75'59
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Estoril · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.136
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.164

Game state

When level+0.036
When behind-0.165
10 min after conceding-0.395
10 min after scoring+0.222

Situations

With ten men-0.212
At home+0.153
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents-0.302
Evenly matched-0.113
As underdog-0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded late (76+)-0.176

Behind vs level -0.19

Alverca · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.066
Late push (76+, level)-0.382
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead-0.304
When level-0.126
When behind+0.164
10 min after conceding+0.176
10 min after scoring+0.035

Situations

At home-0.153
Away+0.123
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.033
v bottom-tier opponents+0.152
Evenly matched-0.292
As underdog-0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.414
Conceded late (76+)+0.126

Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level +0.28

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-37 21%1.142.142.141.161.44
4-3-36 18%1.331.331.171.221.36
3-4-2-15 15%0.80.81.20.841.46
4-3-1-25 15%0.61.42.61.122.41
4-4-24 12%1.752.751.51.671.61

Alverca

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-325 74%1.241.081.361.231.27
3-4-2-17 21%1.141.02.01.061.42
5-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.641.93

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 44%3.3Draw 29% P 28%3.4Away 28% P 28%

Double Chance

1.36Estoril or Draw 35% P 36%1.33Estoril or Alverca 36% P 36%1.61Draw or Alverca 29% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 56%2.05No 45% P 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.95Over 49% P 50%1.85Under 51% P 50%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%43%-0.3
Draw28%28%30%+2.4
Away28%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes56%56%57%+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%49%50%+1.3

Fabio Verssimo

Career
18 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
6.17 (6.11 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.5
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.75.66+0.0842
Fouls / match25.627.8-1.15
Fouls per card4.54.9-0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.40.37+0.2958
Time added6.57.7-1.279
First card
24' on average
Card timing
22% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-09 70 271 22'12
2025-11-02 60 280 19'6
2025-09-29 81 210 3'6