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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 24

Momentum

Sporting CPEstoril
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
24

Venue

Stadium
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
Capacity
52,095
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Rui Borges · Ian Cathro
Position
2 · 7
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-1-2

Referee

Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.3° (feels 10.6°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
79%

Where to watch · 17

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Sporting CP

WWDWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 8.22–2.96 · xPts 10.54

  • W A Moreirense 3–0 xG 1.69–0.4 PRT PL
  • W H Famalicão 1–0 xG 1.95–0.23 PRT PL
  • D A Porto 1–1 xG 1.47–0.85 PRT PL
  • W H Nacional 2–1 xG 1.99–0.82 PRT PL
  • W A Athletic Club 3–2 xG 1.12–0.67 UEFA CL

Estoril

WWDLW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 10 · xG 8.07–8.34 · xPts 6.72

  • W H Gil Vicente 3–1 xG 1.73–2.53 PRT PL
  • L A AVS 0–3 xG 0.82–1.31 PRT PL
  • D H Tondela 2–2 xG 1.23–1.14 PRT PL
  • W A Santa Clara 4–2 xG 2.31–1.41 PRT PL
  • W H Vitória Guimarães 4–2 xG 1.97–1.95 PRT PL

All meetings · 22 matches since 2012

Sporting CP 163 draws3 Estoril

Goals 42–15 · 2.59 per match · BTTS 36% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Sporting CP 100 draws0 Estoril

Goals 24–2 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Sporting CP 50 draws0 Estoril

Goals 11–1 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Sporting CP 3–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–1 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Sporting CP 3–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–3 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–1 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Sporting CP 5–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Sporting CP 2–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–2 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Sporting CP 3–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–1 Sporting CP PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricSporting CP all · 34Sporting CP at home · 17Estoril all · 34Estoril away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.412.411.150.94
W / D / L25 / 7 / 213 / 2 / 210 / 9 / 154 / 4 / 9
Goals for / match2.623.001.591.47
Goals against / match0.710.651.681.82
Clean sheets44%59%15%18%
Failed to score0%0%29%35%
Both teams scored56%41%59%47%
Over 2.571%82%62%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.092.291.201.18
xG against / match0.820.741.591.52
xG difference1.271.55-0.39-0.34
Finishing vs xG0.530.710.390.29
xPts / match2.122.251.131.15
Points vs xPts0.300.160.02-0.21
Game state
Scored first76%82%38%47%
PPG when scoring first2.542.711.851.75
PPG when conceding first2.001.000.700.22
Came back from behind75%33%40%31%
Leads held81%87%59%50%
Minutes leading45%50%23%23%
Minutes level48%44%40%31%
Minutes trailing7%6%37%45%
First goal (min)39423430
First goal conceded (min)50623027
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%55%52%52%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%46%48%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.710.260.24
Late goals against0.320.410.240.35
Style
Possession62%61%53%52%
Shots17.619.111.711.3
On target6.87.54.13.6
Shot conversion15%16%14%13%
Shots inside box68%70%64%66%
Big chances created3.63.82.22.2
Corners6.96.24.44.1
xG from set plays24%24%32%39%
Goals from headers16%16%13%8%
Pressure index24.626.711.210.3
Dominant minutes69.670.546.844.4
Pass accuracy88%88%81%81%
Fouls12.212.113.013.5
Cards2.181.532.532.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Sporting CP

0–15'74
16–30'103
31–45'211
46–60'132
61–75'163
76–90'2211

Estoril

0–15'615
16–30'87
31–45'129
46–60'118
61–75'810
76–90'98

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Sporting CP · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.16) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.167
Early press (0-15, level)-0.037
Late push (76+, level)-0.192

Game state

When ahead+0.107
When level+0.317
10 min after conceding-0.495
10 min after scoring+0.187

Situations

At home+0.054
Away+0.323
4+ days rest+0.167

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.013
v bottom-tier opponents+0.363
As favourite+0.167

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.157
Conceded when ahead-0.237
Conceded late (76+)-0.196

Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level -0.80

Estoril · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.136
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.164

Game state

When level+0.036
When behind-0.165
10 min after conceding-0.395
10 min after scoring+0.222

Situations

With ten men-0.212
At home+0.153
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents-0.302
Evenly matched-0.113
As underdog-0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded late (76+)-0.176

Behind vs level -0.19

Sporting CP

Current: unbeaten 12 · winless 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-132 94%2.382.530.722.020.83
4-4-22 6%3.04.00.53.230.69

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-37 21%1.142.142.141.161.44
4-3-36 18%1.331.331.171.221.36
4-3-1-25 15%0.61.42.61.122.41
3-4-2-15 15%0.80.81.20.841.46
4-4-24 12%1.752.751.51.671.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.2Home 78% P 82%7.0Draw 13% P 11%11.0Away 9% P 7%

Double Chance

1.05Sporting or Draw 29% P 47%1.1Sporting or Estoril 28% P 44%1.05Sporting or Tie 29% P 44%4.33Tie or Estoril 7% P 44%4.5Draw or Estoril 7% P 9%

Draw No Bet

1.061 90%10.02 10%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 52%1.95No 48% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.28Over 74% P 73%3.6Under 26% P 27%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–82.5% · away 5–7.5% · 442 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home82%81%83%+1.6
Draw11%13%11%-1.8
Away7%6%6%+0.2

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 72.5–75% · 217 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.573%73%74%+0.3

Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Career
25 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
4.8 (4.8 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
27.6 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.08
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 25 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.685.66-1.2215
Fouls / match27.627.9-0.16
Fouls per card5.94.9+1.00 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.040.37-2.250
Time added7.77.7+0.1342
First card
28' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-31 30 260 14'3
2026-01-11 20 200 30'6
2025-11-03 50 300 51'7
2025-10-26 30 340 26'10
2025-09-23 60 330 10'11
2025-09-20 100 370 7'10
2025-08-31 · Estoril 40 191 15'11
2025-08-24 40 190 28'4
2025-08-09 20 300 18'5
2025-05-03 50 280 34'7