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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 26

Momentum

VSCFamalicão
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
26

Venue

Stadium
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Capacity
30,029
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Luís Correia Pinto · Hugo Filipe Carvalho Oliveira
Position
9 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Hélder Carvalho

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
12.9° (feels 10.9°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
26%

Where to watch · 1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Vitória Guimarães

LWLDL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 10 · xG 6.58–6.88 · xPts 6.85

  • L A Santa Clara 0–2 xG 1.05–0.96 PRT PL
  • D H Alverca 1–1 xG 1.71–1.94 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting Braga 2–3 xG 0.98–2.25 PRT PL
  • W H Estrela Amadora 2–1 xG 1.56–0.64 PRT PL
  • L A Arouca 2–3 xG 1.27–1.08 PRT PL

Famalicão

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 2 · xG 6.15–4.56 · xPts 7.98

  • W H Arouca 1–0 xG 0.96–0.55 PRT PL
  • D A Rio Ave 0–0 xG 0.96–1.07 PRT PL
  • W H Casa Pia 2–0 xG 2.16–0.6 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting CP 0–1 xG 0.23–1.95 PRT PL
  • W H AVS 3–1 xG 1.84–0.38 PRT PL

All meetings · 14 matches since 2019

Vitória Guimarães 82 draws4 Famalicão

Goals 25–15 · 2.86 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 64%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Vitória Guimarães 61 draws3 Famalicão

Goals 15–12 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Vitória Guimarães 21 draws2 Famalicão

Goals 4–5 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Vitória Guimarães 1–2 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Famalicão 2–0 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Famalicão 0–0 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Vitória Guimarães 1–0 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Famalicão 1–3 Vitória Guimarães PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Famalicão 2–1 Vitória Guimarães neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Vitória Guimarães 3–2 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Famalicão 1–2 Vitória Guimarães neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricVitória Guimarães all · 34Vitória Guimarães at home · 17Famalicão all · 34Famalicão away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.241.651.651.47
W / D / L12 / 6 / 168 / 4 / 515 / 11 / 86 / 7 / 4
Goals for / match1.151.531.240.88
Goals against / match1.501.120.851.00
Clean sheets29%29%50%41%
Failed to score35%24%26%35%
Both teams scored41%53%35%35%
Over 2.544%53%38%29%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.271.331.421.24
xG against / match1.291.211.001.12
xG difference-0.020.130.420.12
Finishing vs xG-0.120.20-0.18-0.36
xPts / match1.381.481.661.48
Points vs xPts-0.150.17-0.01-0.01
Game state
Scored first41%41%53%47%
PPG when scoring first2.142.432.442.50
PPG when conceding first0.561.110.670.43
Came back from behind20%44%43%43%
Leads held71%80%75%67%
Minutes leading16%20%24%20%
Minutes level55%60%60%67%
Minutes trailing29%20%16%13%
First goal (min)45454752
First goal conceded (min)37443950
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half56%65%64%73%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%58%55%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.180.260.12
Late goals against0.290.290.260.53
Style
Possession51%50%52%49%
Shots13.313.512.410.5
On target3.94.14.33.6
Shot conversion9%11%10%8%
Shots inside box56%58%67%68%
Big chances created1.61.62.52.2
Corners4.44.45.55.2
xG from set plays35%43%31%32%
Goals from headers16%15%26%33%
Pressure index12.914.013.811.5
Dominant minutes53.853.953.550.7
Pass accuracy82%82%82%81%
Fouls14.515.515.716.0
Cards2.412.762.682.65

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Vitória Guimarães

0–15'27
16–30'87
31–45'79
46–60'68
61–75'1010
76–90'610

Famalicão

0–15'34
16–30'65
31–45'64
46–60'85
61–75'102
76–90'99

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Vitória Guimarães · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.22) · stands out: at home +0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.226
Early press (0-15, level)-0.226
Late push (76+, level)+0.163
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.154

Game state

When level+0.176
When behind+0.434
10 min after conceding+0.224
10 min after scoring+0.373

Situations

At home+0.493
Away-0.073
4+ days rest+0.226

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.312
v bottom-tier opponents+0.464
As favourite+0.464
As underdog-0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.246
Conceded late (76+)-0.446

Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.27

Famalicão · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.34

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.026
Early press (0-15, level)-0.196
Late push (76+, level)-0.345
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.154

Game state

When ahead-0.013
When level-0.106
When behind+0.284
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.114

Situations

At home+0.003
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.026

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.192
As favourite+0.092
Evenly matched-0.043

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.046
Conceded when ahead-0.013
Conceded late (76+)+0.026

Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level +0.37

Vitória Guimarães

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-125 74%1.160.961.481.191.32
4-4-23 9%2.02.01.331.451.41
3-4-32 6%1.51.52.01.141.39
4-3-32 6%2.03.00.52.440.4
4-4-1-11 3%0.00.03.00.531.83

Famalicão

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-125 74%1.61.240.921.41.07
4-3-37 21%1.861.140.571.610.69
4-1-4-12 6%1.51.51.01.031.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 38% P 37%3.3Draw 28% P 30%2.8Away 33% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4Guimaraes or Draw 34% P 34%1.36Guimaraes or Famalicao 35% P 35%1.5Draw or Famalicao 32% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.81 51%1.92 49%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.05Over 46% P 45%1.75Under 54% P 55%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 32.5–35% · 702 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home37%36%35%-1.6
Draw30%30%32%+2.1
Away33%34%33%-0.6

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%46%45%-1.2

Hélder Carvalho

Career
42 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.86 (4.48 yellow · 0.36 red)
Fouls / match
28.5 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.625.66-1.2912
Fouls / match28.927.8+0.56
Fouls per card6.34.9+1.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.450.37+0.6679
Time added8.07.7+0.4873
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 40 260 54'7
2026-02-21 40 301 14'10
2026-01-24 62 230 64'6
2026-01-03 30 221 11'8
2025-12-14 20 340 28'6
2025-10-25 40 313 43'7
2025-09-22 20 342 45'7
2025-08-23 50 300 20'9
2025-08-16 60 371 25'8
2025-04-12 40 280 26'1