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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 27

Momentum

CFEACasa Pia
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Capacity
9,000
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Nuno Silva Soto Lopes · Álvaro Teixeira Pacheco
Position
14 · 15
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-3

Referee

Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
13.0° (feels 12.6°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
89%

Where to watch · 1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Estrela Amadora

LLDDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 5.18–8.53 · xPts 4.72

  • L A Rio Ave 1–2 xG 1.53–2.47 PRT PL
  • D H Gil Vicente 2–2 xG 1.28–2.27 PRT PL
  • D A AVS 0–0 xG 0.82–0.81 PRT PL
  • L H Tondela 0–2 xG 0.91–1.42 PRT PL
  • L A Vitória Guimarães 1–2 xG 0.64–1.56 PRT PL

Casa Pia

DWLDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.94–6.34 · xPts 6.73

  • D A Estoril 0–0 xG 1.4–0.48 PRT PL
  • D H Moreirense 1–1 xG 1.3–1.7 PRT PL
  • L A Famalicão 0–2 xG 0.6–2.16 PRT PL
  • W H Arouca 3–2 xG 1.87–0.96 PRT PL
  • D A Nacional 0–0 xG 0.77–1.04 PRT PL

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Estrela Amadora 40 draws2 Casa Pia

Goals 13–6 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Estrela Amadora 40 draws2 Casa Pia

Goals 13–6 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Estrela Amadora 30 draws2 Casa Pia

Goals 12–6 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Estrela Amadora 4–0 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Casa Pia 3–5 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Casa Pia 1–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Estrela Amadora 0–1 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estrela Amadora 3–1 Casa Pia neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Casa Pia 0–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricEstrela Amadora all · 34Estrela Amadora at home · 17Casa Pia all · 34Casa Pia away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.881.060.880.88
W / D / L6 / 12 / 164 / 6 / 76 / 12 / 164 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.121.240.910.76
Goals against / match1.651.411.681.82
Clean sheets24%29%21%29%
Failed to score44%41%44%47%
Both teams scored47%41%47%35%
Over 2.553%53%44%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.131.350.940.91
xG against / match1.631.531.561.63
xG difference-0.50-0.18-0.62-0.72
Finishing vs xG-0.02-0.11-0.03-0.14
xPts / match1.071.261.000.94
Points vs xPts-0.19-0.20-0.12-0.06
Game state
Scored first26%29%29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.562.401.501.80
PPG when conceding first0.550.400.550.40
Came back from behind33%36%30%17%
Leads held50%67%46%67%
Minutes leading15%17%17%14%
Minutes level52%50%53%46%
Minutes trailing33%32%30%40%
First goal (min)40404244
First goal conceded (min)33323928
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half50%48%48%62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%58%56%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.180.180.18
Late goals against0.180.060.320.29
Style
Possession47%50%41%41%
Shots10.813.08.99.4
On target3.63.92.93.0
Shot conversion10%10%10%8%
Shots inside box55%54%62%62%
Big chances created2.02.51.71.6
Corners3.33.64.04.5
xG from set plays41%39%38%34%
Goals from headers13%14%19%15%
Pressure index8.911.07.15.3
Dominant minutes38.446.135.629.6
Pass accuracy79%81%72%74%
Fouls14.414.215.915.0
Cards2.852.883.002.76

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Estrela Amadora

0–15'59
16–30'65
31–45'811
46–60'413
61–75'912
76–90'66

Casa Pia

0–15'57
16–30'33
31–45'815
46–60'49
61–75'512
76–90'611

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Estrela Amadora · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195

Game state

When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416

Situations

At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296

Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12

Casa Pia · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.156
Early press (0-15, level)-0.136
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.654

Game state

When level-0.046
When behind+0.335
10 min after conceding+0.075

Situations

At home+0.423
Away-0.053
4+ days rest+0.156

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.122
v mid-tier opponents-0.102
As underdog+0.005

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.146
Conceded late (76+)-0.265

Ahead vs level +2.48 · Behind vs level +0.37

Estrela Amadora

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-110 29%0.71.22.31.072.09
3-4-310 29%1.51.61.61.281.78
4-3-34 12%0.751.01.01.40.89
5-3-23 9%0.330.671.671.551.6
4-1-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.781.49

Casa Pia

Current: winless 7 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-323 68%1.041.091.611.021.49
3-4-2-14 12%0.250.252.00.691.55
5-4-13 9%0.330.672.330.72.23
3-5-22 6%0.00.52.00.851.51
4-1-4-11 3%3.02.01.01.621.64

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.3h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 36% P 36%3.0Draw 31% P 31%2.9Away 33% P 32%

Double Chance

1.36Estrela Amadora or Draw 35% P 34%1.36Estrela Amadora or Casa Pia 35% P 34%1.53Draw or Casa Pia 31% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 49%1.9No 50% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 41%1.65Under 57% P 59%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 30–32.5% · 302 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%37%38%+1.6
Draw31%32%31%-0.7
Away32%32%31%-0.8

In those fixtures: 2.2 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.541%41%41%-0.4

Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Career
155 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
5.72 (5.4 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
31.3 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 74 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.225.66+0.7476
Fouls / match29.927.8+1.09
Fouls per card4.84.9-0.31 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.610.37+1.7697
Time added8.37.7+0.8385
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-09 50 281 29'9
2026-01-31 100 272 31'10
2025-12-07 50 300 16'7
2025-11-08 20 310 81'7
2025-11-01 · Estrela Amadora · Casa Pia 50 412 53'14
2025-10-04 41 282 15'8
2025-09-27 · Estrela Amadora 52 310 59'7
2025-09-21 · Casa Pia 30 391 6'8
2025-08-17 11 141 24'6
2025-08-10 40 201 29'8