Arouca v Estoril · KickoffDNA

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 28

AroucaArouca

3–2

EstorilEstoril

Momentum

– AroucaEstoril –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

Loading statistics…

Season context

Arouca	at home	Stat	league	away	Estoril
50.3 #8	–	Ball possession	50.0	–	52.7 #5
10.7 #13	–	Shots total	12.1	–	11.7 #9
3.6 #11	–	Shots on target	4.1	–	4.1 #8
3.7 #15	–	Corners	4.7	–	4.4 #9
13.8 #10	–	Fouls	13.7	–	13.0 #13
1.4 #9	–	Offsides	1.5	–	1.3 #14
14.2 #17	–	Tackles	15.6	–	14.7 #14
85.4 #11	–	Attacks	90.3	–	99.5 #5
33.6 #14	–	Dangerous attacks	42.1	–	43.7 #8
413.8 #7	–	Passes	405.0	–	444.9 #5
2.8 #5	–	Yellowcards	2.6	–	2.6 #10
0.2 #1	–	Redcards	0.1	–	0.0 #17
1.0 #6	–	Assists	0.9	–	1.2 #4
– #3	–	Btts	48.0	–	– #1
– #12	–	Cleansheet	29.2	–	– #17
– #16	–	Draw	27.1	–	– #10
1.0 #15	–	Expected goals	1.3	–	1.2 #10
0.3 #3	–	Expected goals difference	0.0	–	0.4 #2
– #12	–	Failed to score	29.2	–	– #10
1.4 #6	1.6	Goals	1.3	1.5	1.6 #5
1.9 #2	1.8	Goals conceded	1.3	1.8	1.7 #3
0.2 #6	–	Injury time goals	0.2	–	0.3 #3
8.5 #12	–	Interceptions	8.6	–	9.6 #2
– #4	–	Lost	36.4	–	– #9
0.0 #16	–	Penalties scored	0.2	–	0.1 #10
6.7 #16	–	Rating	6.8	–	6.8 #8
2.4 #16	–	Shots blocked	3.2	–	2.7 #12
6.2 #13	–	Shots insidebox	7.4	–	7.5 #7
4.7 #10	–	Shots off target	4.8	–	4.9 #8
4.5 #10	–	Shots outsidebox	4.6	–	4.2 #12
– #7	–	Win	36.4	–	– #10

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 306 of 306
Goals / match: 2.68 (home 1.5 · away 1.19)
Home / draw / away: 41% · 27% · 32%
BTTS · over 2.5: 48% · 54%
Cards / match: 5.01 (reds 0.13)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Arouca · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal

Naïs Djouahra 7 · Left Wing

Starts

Rating 6.83 (56th pct) · G+A 6 + 3 (19% of team goals) · 90% of minutes

Tiago Esgaio 28 · Right Back

Starts

Rating 6.87 (72th pct) · G+A 3 + 5 (17% of team goals) · 80% of minutes

Team 1.41 ppg with (27) · 0.57 without (7)

Taichi Fukui 8 · Central Midfield

Starts

Rating 6.86 (62th pct) · G+A 4 + 3 (15% of team goals) · 83% of minutes

Team 1.28 ppg with (29) · 1.0 without (5)

All key players

Estoril · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal

Jordan Holsgrove 10 · Defensive Midfield

Starts

Rating 7.15 (99th pct) · G+A 1 + 7 (15% of team goals) · 93% of minutes

João Carvalho 12 · Attacking Midfield

Starts

Rating 7.14 (98th pct) · G+A 6 + 12 (33% of team goals) · 91% of minutes

Yanis Begraoui 14 · Centre Forward

Starts

Rating 7.04 (85th pct) · G+A 20 + 1 (39% of team goals) · 89% of minutes

All key players

Absences

Estoril

injury Kévin Boma defender · Muscle Injury · 12 missed · until 2026-05-05

Competition

Stage: Regular Season
Round: 28

Venue

Stadium: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Capacity: 5,600
Surface: grass
Attendance: 1,419

Teams

Coaches: Vasco Freire De Seabra · Ian Cathro
Position: 12 · 7
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-1-2

Referee

António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Weather

Conditions: heavy intensity rain
Temperature: 14.1° (feels 13.8°)
Wind: 6.3
Humidity: 85%

Where to watch · 1

International Bet365

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	34	28	4	2	66	18	48	88	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89	24	65	82	DDWWW
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74	25	49	80	WWDDW
4	Sporting Braga	34	16	11	7	64	36	28	59	WLDDD
5	Famalicão	34	15	11	8	42	29	13	56	DWDDW
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47	38	9	50	LWDLL
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37	49	-12	43	WLWLD
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47	64	-17	42	WLDWW
9	Vitória Guimarães	34	12	6	16	39	51	-12	42	WWLLL
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54	57	-3	39	LLDDL
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35	52	-17	39	LWLDL
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35	57	-22	36	DLDLD
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32	41	-9	36	DWDWL
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37	45	-8	34	WWLLW
15	Estrela Amadora	34	6	12	16	38	56	-18	30	LLLDD
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31	57	-26	30	LLLWD
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27	55	-28	28	LDWWL
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	27	67	-40	21	DDWWD

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	33	6	27	45	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	17	13	2	2	51	11	40	41	DDWWW
3	Benfica	17	11	6	0	41	13	28	39	WWDDW
4	Famalicão	17	9	4	4	27	12	15	31	DWDDW
5	Sporting Braga	17	8	6	3	34	18	16	30	WLDDD
6	Gil Vicente	17	9	3	5	28	17	11	30	LWDLL
7	Vitória Guimarães	17	8	4	5	26	19	7	28	WWLLL
8	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	20	21	-1	27	WLWLD
9	Alverca	17	7	5	5	18	23	-5	26	LWLDL
10	Arouca	17	7	4	6	27	30	-3	25	WLDWW
11	Estoril	17	6	5	6	29	26	3	23	LLDDL
12	Santa Clara	17	7	2	8	17	17	0	23	DWDWL
13	Nacional	17	6	2	9	23	23	0	20	WWLLW
14	Estrela Amadora	17	4	6	7	21	24	-3	18	LLLDD
15	Casa Pia	17	2	9	6	18	26	-8	15	LLLWD
16	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	17	29	-12	15	DLDLD
17	Tondela	17	2	7	8	13	21	-8	13	LDWWL
18	AVS	17	2	6	9	15	27	-12	12	DDWWD

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	33	12	21	43	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	17	12	5	0	38	13	25	41	DDWWW
3	Benfica	17	12	5	0	33	12	21	41	WWDDW
4	Sporting Braga	17	8	5	4	30	18	12	29	WLDDD
5	Famalicão	17	6	7	4	15	17	-2	25	DWDDW
6	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	18	28	-10	21	DLDLD
7	Gil Vicente	17	4	8	5	19	21	-2	20	LWDLL
8	Arouca	17	5	2	10	20	34	-14	17	WLDWW
9	Estoril	17	4	4	9	25	31	-6	16	LLDDL
10	Moreirense	17	4	4	9	17	28	-11	16	WLWLD
11	Casa Pia	17	4	3	10	13	31	-18	15	LLLWD
12	Tondela	17	4	3	10	14	34	-20	15	LDWWL
13	Nacional	17	3	5	9	14	22	-8	14	WWLLW
14	Vitória Guimarães	17	4	2	11	13	32	-19	14	WWLLL
15	Santa Clara	17	2	7	8	15	24	-9	13	DWDWL
16	Alverca	17	3	4	10	17	29	-12	13	LWLDL
17	Estrela Amadora	17	2	6	9	17	32	-15	12	LLLDD
18	AVS	17	1	6	10	12	40	-28	9	DDWWD

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Arouca

WLLLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 6.76–8.74 · xPts 6.15

W A Moreirense 1–0 xG 1.6–0.61 PRT PL
L H Benfica 1–2 xG 2.55–2.34 PRT PL
L A Famalicão 0–1 xG 0.55–0.96 PRT PL
L A Porto 1–3 xG 0.37–3.22 PRT PL
W H Nacional 3–0 xG 1.69–1.6 PRT PL

Estoril

WLDWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 5.34–8.81 · xPts 4.71

L H Rio Ave 1–2 xG 1.18–1.97 PRT PL
W A Nacional 1–0 xG 1.39–0.89 PRT PL
D H Casa Pia 0–0 xG 0.48–1.4 PRT PL
L A Sporting CP 0–3 xG 0.55–2.03 PRT PL
W H Gil Vicente 3–1 xG 1.73–2.53 PRT PL

All meetings · 19 matches since 2013

Arouca 75 draws7 Estoril

Goals 27–31 · 3.05 per match · BTTS 68% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Arouca 52 draws3 Estoril

Goals 18–18 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Arouca 12 draws2 Estoril

Goals 8–11 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

D Estoril 0–0 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
W Arouca 3–2 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
L Estoril 4–3 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
D Arouca 1–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
L Estoril 4–1 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
W Estoril 1–2 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
W Arouca 4–3 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
L Estoril 2–0 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
W Arouca 2–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
W Estoril 1–2 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season

Metric	Arouca all · 34	Arouca at home · 17	Estoril all · 34	Estoril away · 17
Results
Matches	34	17	34	17
Points per game	1.24	1.47	1.15	0.94
W / D / L	12 / 6 / 16	7 / 4 / 6	10 / 9 / 15	4 / 4 / 9
Goals for / match	1.38	1.59	1.59	1.47
Goals against / match	1.88	1.76	1.68	1.82
Clean sheets	21%	18%	15%	18%
Failed to score	26%	24%	29%	35%
Both teams scored	56%	59%	59%	47%
Over 2.5	68%	71%	62%	65%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.04	1.20	1.20	1.18
xG against / match	1.51	1.49	1.59	1.52
xG difference	-0.48	-0.29	-0.39	-0.34
Finishing vs xG	0.34	0.38	0.39	0.29
xPts / match	1.14	1.21	1.13	1.15
Points vs xPts	0.09	0.26	0.02	-0.21
Game state
Scored first	50%	59%	38%	47%
PPG when scoring first	1.82	1.90	1.85	1.75
PPG when conceding first	0.63	0.86	0.70	0.22
Came back from behind	24%	33%	40%	31%
Leads held	60%	58%	59%	50%
Minutes leading	20%	30%	23%	23%
Minutes level	50%	45%	40%	31%
Minutes trailing	30%	25%	37%	45%
First goal (min)	37	30	34	30
First goal conceded (min)	35	37	30	27
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	62%	63%	52%	52%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	50%	53%	46%	48%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.18	0.24	0.26	0.24
Late goals against	0.41	0.41	0.24	0.35
Style
Possession	50%	50%	53%	52%
Shots	10.7	10.8	11.7	11.3
On target	3.6	4.2	4.1	3.6
Shot conversion	13%	15%	14%	13%
Shots inside box	58%	63%	64%	66%
Big chances created	2.1	2.6	2.2	2.2
Corners	3.7	4.1	4.4	4.1
xG from set plays	24%	20%	32%	39%
Goals from headers	34%	30%	13%	8%
Pressure index	10.7	10.4	11.2	10.3
Dominant minutes	43.4	42.8	46.8	44.4
Pass accuracy	82%	81%	81%	81%
Fouls	13.9	14.4	13.0	13.5
Cards	3.32	4.00	2.53	2.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

0–15'910

16–30'28

31–45'714

46–60'119

61–75'129

76–90'614

Estoril

0–15'615

16–30'87

31–45'129

46–60'118

61–75'810

76–90'98

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Arouca · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046

Early press (0-15, level)-0.146

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.092

Game state

When ahead-0.193

When level-0.036

When behind+0.093

10 min after conceding-0.073

10 min after scoring+0.534

Situations

At home+0.203

Away-0.233

4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.222

As favourite+0.292

Evenly matched+0.162

As underdog-0.482

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.196

Conceded when ahead+0.433

Conceded late (76+)-0.095

Ahead vs level -0.16 · Behind vs level +0.12

Estoril · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046

Early press (0-15, level)+0.136

Late push (76+, level)+0.013

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.164

Game state

When level+0.036

When behind-0.165

10 min after conceding-0.395

10 min after scoring+0.222

Situations

With ten men-0.212

At home+0.153

Away-0.233

4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.242

v bottom-tier opponents-0.302

Evenly matched-0.113

As underdog-0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016

Conceded late (76+)-0.176

Behind vs level -0.19

Arouca

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	32 94%	1.31	1.44	1.88	1.04	1.52
4-3-3	1 3%	0.0	1.0	3.0	0.85	2.32
5-4-1	1 3%	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.08	0.66

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-3	7 21%	1.14	2.14	2.14	1.16	1.44
4-3-3	6 18%	1.33	1.33	1.17	1.22	1.36
3-4-2-1	5 15%	0.8	0.8	1.2	0.84	1.46
4-3-1-2	5 15%	0.6	1.4	2.6	1.12	2.41
4-4-2	4 12%	1.75	2.75	1.5	1.67	1.61

Metric	Arouca all · 10	Arouca at home · 10	Estoril all · 10	Estoril away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	1.70	2.20	0.40	0.50
W / D / L	5 / 2 / 3	7 / 1 / 2	0 / 4 / 6	1 / 2 / 7
Goals for / match	1.70	2.30	0.50	0.60
Goals against / match	1.10	1.20	1.40	1.70
Clean sheets	30%	30%	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	0%	50%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	50%	40%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	20%	40%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.11	1.54	0.89	0.74
xG against / match	1.35	1.34	1.55	1.46
xG difference	-0.24	0.21	-0.65	-0.72
Finishing vs xG	0.59	0.76	-0.39	-0.14
xPts / match	1.27	1.51	0.97	0.89
Points vs xPts	0.42	0.69	-0.57	-0.39
Game state
Scored first	50%	60%	0%	20%
PPG when scoring first	2.60	2.17	–	1.50
PPG when conceding first	0.75	2.25	0.33	0.25
Came back from behind	25%	60%	33%	22%
Leads held	83%	78%	–	50%
Minutes leading	26%	39%	0%	12%
Minutes level	56%	46%	55%	44%
Minutes trailing	19%	15%	45%	45%
First goal (min)	38	30	74	44
First goal conceded (min)	38	29	37	35
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	65%	56%	100%	50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	54%	33%	43%	53%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.50	0.40	0.30	0.20
Late goals against	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.40
Style
Possession	53%	52%	48%	50%
Shots	11.3	12.1	12.1	9.2
On target	4.0	5.3	4.0	2.6
Shot conversion	15%	19%	4%	6%
Shots inside box	56%	65%	59%	64%
Big chances created	2.1	3.4	1.3	1.4
Corners	3.3	3.6	4.6	3.2
xG from set plays	16%	18%	16%	19%
Goals from headers	35%	39%	0%	17%
Pressure index	10.4	10.1	10.2	8.2
Dominant minutes	46.5	47.5	43.3	40.8
Pass accuracy	85%	83%	82%	82%
Fouls	11.3	13.7	12.7	13.2
Cards	3.10	3.80	2.70	3.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

0–15'12

16–30'32

31–45'21

46–60'40

61–75'24

76–90'52

Estoril

0–15'04

16–30'02

31–45'02

46–60'12

61–75'12

76–90'32

Arouca

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	10 100%	1.7	1.7	1.1	1.11	1.35

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	5 50%	0.4	0.2	1.2	0.93	1.43
3-4-2-1	2 20%	0.5	0.5	1.0	0.56	1.19
3-4-3	2 20%	0.5	1.0	1.5	0.63	1.24
4-3-1-2	1 10%	0.0	1.0	3.0	1.9	3.44

Metric	Arouca all · 35	Arouca at home · 17	Estoril all · 35	Estoril away · 18
Results
Matches	35	17	35	18
Points per game	1.34	1.59	1.03	0.83
W / D / L	14 / 5 / 16	8 / 3 / 6	9 / 9 / 17	4 / 3 / 11
Goals for / match	1.37	1.65	1.37	1.22
Goals against / match	1.60	1.59	1.63	1.72
Clean sheets	29%	24%	17%	17%
Failed to score	26%	18%	37%	44%
Both teams scored	51%	59%	51%	39%
Over 2.5	66%	76%	54%	56%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.07	1.28	1.11	1.06
xG against / match	1.54	1.47	1.57	1.53
xG difference	-0.47	-0.19	-0.46	-0.47
Finishing vs xG	0.30	0.37	0.26	0.17
xPts / match	1.16	1.28	1.08	1.06
Points vs xPts	0.18	0.31	-0.05	-0.23
Game state
Scored first	49%	53%	26%	33%
PPG when scoring first	1.94	2.00	2.11	2.17
PPG when conceding first	0.75	1.13	0.63	0.17
Came back from behind	20%	33%	37%	21%
Leads held	67%	67%	69%	67%
Minutes leading	21%	29%	17%	19%
Minutes level	52%	46%	43%	35%
Minutes trailing	27%	24%	40%	46%
First goal (min)	39	34	39	35
First goal conceded (min)	34	32	28	30
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	60%	57%	56%	54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	46%	41%	42%	48%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.17	0.24	0.26	0.22
Late goals against	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.39
Style
Possession	50%	49%	51%	50%
Shots	10.8	11.4	11.5	10.3
On target	3.6	4.5	4.0	3.3
Shot conversion	13%	14%	12%	12%
Shots inside box	58%	62%	64%	66%
Big chances created	2.2	2.7	2.0	1.9
Corners	3.6	3.9	4.6	3.9
xG from set plays	22%	17%	32%	35%
Goals from headers	35%	36%	15%	9%
Pressure index	10.7	10.1	11.0	10.0
Dominant minutes	42.9	41.5	44.8	42.4
Pass accuracy	82%	81%	81%	81%
Fouls	13.1	13.7	12.8	13.3
Cards	3.34	4.06	2.46	2.61

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

0–15'89

16–30'39

31–45'812

46–60'137

61–75'107

76–90'612

Estoril

0–15'516

16–30'67

31–45'1010

46–60'107

61–75'89

76–90'98

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Arouca · 35 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.0235

Early press (0-15, level)-0.0334

Late push (76+, level)-0.4712

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0213

Game state

When ahead-0.2021

When level-0.0134

When behind+0.1020

10 min after conceding-0.1025

10 min after scoring+0.1526

Situations

With ten men-0.205

Against ten men+0.208

At home-0.1017

Away+0.0418

4+ days rest-0.0235

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.348

v mid-tier opponents-0.199

v bottom-tier opponents+0.0710

As favourite-0.074

Evenly matched+0.2214

As underdog-0.2317

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.1535

Conceded when ahead+0.2521

Conceded late (76+)+0.1029

Ahead vs level -0.19 · Behind vs level +0.11

Estoril · 35 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.05) · stands out: against ten men -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.0535

Early press (0-15, level)-0.0635

Late push (76+, level)-0.0611

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1918

Game state

When ahead-0.0713

When level-0.0135

When behind-0.0927

10 min after conceding-0.2528

10 min after scoring+0.3122

Situations

With ten men+0.083

Against ten men-0.473

At home+0.0117

Away-0.1118

4+ days rest-0.0535

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.1610

v mid-tier opponents+0.067

v bottom-tier opponents-0.0713

As favourite+0.088

Evenly matched+0.0113

As underdog-0.1814

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.0935

Conceded when ahead+0.0813

Conceded late (76+)-0.0831

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level -0.09

Arouca

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	33 94%	1.42	1.42	1.58	1.08	1.54
5-4-1	1 3%	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.08	0.66
4-3-3	1 3%	0.0	1.0	3.0	0.85	2.32

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-3-3	6 17%	1.33	1.33	1.17	1.22	1.36
4-2-3-1	6 17%	0.83	0.83	1.17	0.97	1.32
4-3-1-2	5 14%	0.6	1.4	2.6	1.12	2.41
3-4-3	5 14%	1.2	2.2	2.2	0.94	1.31
3-4-2-1	4 11%	0.25	0.25	1.25	0.5	1.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 40%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.8Away 33% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4FC Arouca or Draw 33%1.28FC Arouca or Estoril 36%1.53Draw or Estoril 30%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.7Over 55% P 58%2.1Under 45% P 42%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	40%	39%	39%	+0.4
Draw	27%	28%	28%	+0.1
Away	34%	34%	33%	-0.5

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	58%	59%	60%	+0.8

António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Career: 133 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match: 5.92 (5.53 yellow · 0.21 red)
Fouls / match: 28.8 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.35
Cards to home side: 48%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 73 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	6.18	5.66	+0.69	73
Fouls / match	28.2	27.8	+0.18
Fouls per card	4.8	4.9	-0.40 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.34	0.37	-0.12	46
Time added	7.1	7.7	-0.57	21

First card: 29' on average
Card timing: 15% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match: 1.21

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2026-03-22	9	0	27	1	15'	7
2026-03-06 · Arouca	2	0	27	0	51'	5
2026-02-13	8	1	28	0	45'	7
2026-01-30	7	0	31	1	42'	7
2026-01-26	4	1	21	1	35'	6
2025-12-11	7	1	23	0	11'	7
2025-12-05	7	1	35	0	30'	9
2025-10-31	2	0	19	0	36'	8
2025-10-25	2	0	25	1	23'	5
2025-10-05	11	2	30	0	11'	7

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2025/2026

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Arouca · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal

Estoril · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal

Absences

Estoril

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 1

Arouca

Estoril

All meetings · 19 matches since 2013

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

Estoril

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Arouca · 6 matches

Estoril · 6 matches

Arouca

Estoril

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

Estoril

Arouca

Estoril

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

Estoril

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Arouca · 35 matches

Estoril · 35 matches

Arouca

Estoril

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 73 matches)

Recent matches