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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 32

Momentum

PortoAlverca
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
32

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Capacity
50,033
Surface
grass
Attendance
49,561

Teams

Coaches
Francesco Farioli · Custodio
Position
1 · 9
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-3

Referee

David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
15.7° (feels 15.4°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Porto

DWLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 10.52–4.64 · xPts 10.09

  • W A Estrela Amadora 2–1 xG 2.02–1.41 PRT PL
  • W H Tondela 2–0 xG 3.4–0.11 PRT PL
  • L A Nottingham Forest 0–1 xG 0.71–2.11 UEFA EL
  • W A Estoril 3–1 xG 2.35–0.5 PRT PL
  • D H Nottingham Forest 1–1 xG 2.04–0.51 UEFA EL

Alverca

LWWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 5.57–6.16 · xPts 6.27

  • W H Arouca 2–1 xG 0.81–0.99 PRT PL
  • L A Nacional 0–1 xG 0.42–0.78 PRT PL
  • W H Casa Pia 3–1 xG 2.0–0.86 PRT PL
  • W A Rio Ave 2–1 xG 1.38–1.55 PRT PL
  • L H Sporting CP 1–4 xG 0.96–1.97 PRT PL

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Porto 30 draws0 Alverca

Goals 6–0 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Porto 30 draws0 Alverca

Goals 6–0 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Porto 30 draws0 Alverca

Goals 6–0 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • W Porto 2–0 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 1–0 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Alverca 0–3 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricPorto all · 34Porto at home · 17Alverca all · 34Alverca away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.592.651.150.76
W / D / L28 / 4 / 214 / 3 / 010 / 9 / 153 / 4 / 10
Goals for / match1.941.941.031.00
Goals against / match0.530.351.531.71
Clean sheets62%71%18%6%
Failed to score3%6%29%35%
Both teams scored38%29%56%59%
Over 2.556%47%50%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.861.851.160.93
xG against / match0.710.581.341.49
xG difference1.161.27-0.18-0.56
Finishing vs xG0.080.09-0.130.07
xPts / match2.072.121.291.06
Points vs xPts0.520.53-0.14-0.30
Game state
Scored first85%94%35%24%
PPG when scoring first2.792.752.332.00
PPG when conceding first1.500.480.38
Came back from behind50%29%23%
Leads held90%88%71%60%
Minutes leading51%54%18%16%
Minutes level43%46%53%58%
Minutes trailing6%0%29%26%
First goal (min)36334940
First goal conceded (min)56654043
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half56%52%60%47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half78%100%54%55%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.350.24
Late goals against0.180.120.260.35
Style
Possession55%56%45%43%
Shots14.514.69.68.7
On target5.35.43.53.4
Shot conversion13%13%11%12%
Shots inside box66%68%64%62%
Big chances created2.92.92.11.6
Corners5.65.64.44.1
xG from set plays31%33%42%33%
Goals from headers14%6%26%24%
Pressure index19.920.88.47.5
Dominant minutes64.864.939.133.7
Pass accuracy84%85%80%79%
Fouls13.913.612.511.9
Cards2.532.122.382.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Porto

0–15'91
16–30'82
31–45'121
46–60'135
61–75'123
76–90'126

Alverca

0–15'57
16–30'37
31–45'610
46–60'410
61–75'59
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Porto · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: when level +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.407
Early press (0-15, level)+0.717

Game state

When ahead+0.146
When level+0.807
When behind+0.193
10 min after conceding+0.203
10 min after scoring+0.616

Situations

At home+0.414
Away+0.393
4+ days rest+0.407

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.605
As favourite+0.566

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.126
Conceded late (76+)+0.016

Ahead vs level -0.67 · Behind vs level -0.61

Alverca · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.066
Late push (76+, level)-0.382
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead-0.304
When level-0.126
When behind+0.164
10 min after conceding+0.176
10 min after scoring+0.035

Situations

At home-0.153
Away+0.123
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.033
v bottom-tier opponents+0.152
Evenly matched-0.292
As underdog-0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.414
Conceded late (76+)+0.126

Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level +0.28

Porto

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-334 100%2.591.940.531.860.71

Alverca

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-325 74%1.241.081.361.231.27
3-4-2-17 21%1.141.02.01.061.42
5-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.641.93

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.18Home 80% P 82%6.5Draw 15% P 13%17.0Away 6% P 6%

Double Chance

1.02FC Porto or Draw 47%1.11FC Porto or Alverca 43%4.5Draw or Alverca 11%

Draw No Bet

1.041 93%13.02 7%

Both Teams To Score

2.37Yes 39%1.53No 61%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 61% P 62%2.4Under 39% P 38%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%9.0Over 14 10%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–82.5% · away 5–7.5% · 442 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home82%81%83%+1.6
Draw13%13%11%-1.8
Away6%6%6%+0.2

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 65%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.5

David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Career
50 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
6.72 (6.38 yellow · 0.22 red)
Fouls / match
29.5 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 43 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.235.66+0.7582
Fouls / match29.927.9+1.04
Fouls per card4.84.9-0.36 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.190.37-1.229
Time added8.17.7+0.6076
First card
32' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 44% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-25 80 200 28'8
2026-04-19 70 211 50'8
2026-04-11 40 300 45'7
2026-03-08 50 410 6'10
2026-02-22 · Porto 50 300 90'7
2026-02-15 50 340 45'13
2026-02-07 41 341 37'9
2026-01-25 70 341 15'6
2026-01-16 21 240 12'8
2025-12-19 70 200 41'6