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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 34

Momentum

AroucaTondela
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
34

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Capacity
5,600
Surface
grass
Attendance
2,642

Teams

Coaches
Vasco Freire De Seabra · Goncalo Feio
Position
11 · 17
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
14.4° (feels 13.7°)
Wind
2.2
Humidity
68%

Where to watch · 1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Arouca

LWLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 5.28–5.77 · xPts 6.51

  • W A Gil Vicente 3–1 xG 0.95–1.03 PRT PL
  • D H Santa Clara 2–2 xG 1.3–1.92 PRT PL
  • L A Alverca 1–2 xG 0.99–0.81 PRT PL
  • W H Estrela Amadora 1–0 xG 0.96–1.35 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting Braga 0–1 xG 1.08–0.66 PRT PL

Tondela

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 6.83–8.42 · xPts 7.0

  • W H Moreirense 2–0 xG 1.91–0.32 PRT PL
  • W A Casa Pia 1–0 xG 1.49–0.48 PRT PL
  • D A Sporting CP 2–2 xG 1.4–2.64 PRT PL
  • L H Nacional 0–2 xG 1.93–1.56 PRT PL
  • L A Porto 0–2 xG 0.11–3.4 PRT PL

All meetings · 8 matches since 2015

Arouca 42 draws2 Tondela

Goals 13–10 · 2.88 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 8 matches

Arouca 42 draws2 Tondela

Goals 13–10 · 2.88 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 62%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Arouca 21 draws2 Tondela

Goals 9–8 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Arouca 3–1 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Tondela 3–1 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Tondela 2–2 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Arouca 2–0 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Arouca 1–2 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Tondela 1–2 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Tondela 0–1 Arouca PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Arouca 1–1 Tondela PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricArouca all · 34Arouca at home · 17Tondela all · 34Tondela away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.241.470.820.88
W / D / L12 / 6 / 167 / 4 / 66 / 10 / 184 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.381.590.790.82
Goals against / match1.881.761.622.00
Clean sheets21%18%21%18%
Failed to score26%24%53%47%
Both teams scored56%59%35%35%
Over 2.568%71%50%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.041.201.271.18
xG against / match1.511.491.561.60
xG difference-0.48-0.29-0.30-0.41
Finishing vs xG0.340.38-0.47-0.36
xPts / match1.141.211.231.15
Points vs xPts0.090.26-0.40-0.27
Game state
Scored first50%59%32%41%
PPG when scoring first1.821.901.732.00
PPG when conceding first0.630.860.300.10
Came back from behind24%33%25%17%
Leads held60%58%46%57%
Minutes leading20%30%14%17%
Minutes level50%45%56%48%
Minutes trailing30%25%29%36%
First goal (min)37304144
First goal conceded (min)35374240
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%63%63%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%53%60%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.240.150.12
Late goals against0.410.410.440.53
Style
Possession50%50%44%42%
Shots10.710.810.69.1
On target3.64.23.43.3
Shot conversion13%15%8%9%
Shots inside box58%63%60%56%
Big chances created2.12.62.01.9
Corners3.74.14.04.0
xG from set plays24%20%46%58%
Goals from headers34%30%12%8%
Pressure index10.710.48.37.7
Dominant minutes43.442.838.135.2
Pass accuracy82%81%78%80%
Fouls13.914.414.415.0
Cards3.324.002.713.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Arouca

0–15'910
16–30'28
31–45'714
46–60'119
61–75'129
76–90'614

Tondela

0–15'64
16–30'29
31–45'29
46–60'66
61–75'612
76–90'515

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Arouca · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.146
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.092

Game state

When ahead-0.193
When level-0.036
When behind+0.093
10 min after conceding-0.073
10 min after scoring+0.534

Situations

At home+0.203
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.222
As favourite+0.292
Evenly matched+0.162
As underdog-0.482

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.196
Conceded when ahead+0.433
Conceded late (76+)-0.095

Ahead vs level -0.16 · Behind vs level +0.12

Tondela

No pressure profile yet.

Arouca

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-132 94%1.311.441.881.041.52
4-3-31 3%0.01.03.00.852.32
5-4-11 3%0.00.01.01.080.66

Tondela

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-121 62%0.860.761.711.431.57
5-4-14 12%1.251.01.00.911.77
4-3-33 9%0.671.331.671.261.7
3-4-33 9%0.00.332.330.861.51
4-4-22 6%1.51.01.01.281.13

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.1Home 31% P 32%3.4Draw 28% P 27%2.3Away 41% P 41%

Double Chance

1.7FC Arouca or Draw 28%1.28FC Arouca or Tondela 37%1.3Draw or Tondela 36%

Draw No Bet

2.371 39%1.532 61%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.85Over 51% P 52%1.95Under 49% P 48%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home32%31%31%-0.2
Draw27%28%24%-4.2
Away41%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Career
133 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
5.92 (5.53 yellow · 0.21 red)
Fouls / match
28.8 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.35
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.185.66+0.6973
Fouls / match28.227.8+0.18
Fouls per card4.84.9-0.40 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.37-0.1246
Time added7.17.7-0.5721
First card
29' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.21

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-04 20 200 7'4
2026-04-18 50 320 58'7
2026-04-06 · Arouca 50 310 23'8
2026-03-22 90 271 15'7
2026-03-06 · Arouca 20 270 51'5
2026-02-13 81 280 45'7
2026-01-30 70 311 42'7
2026-01-26 41 211 35'6
2025-12-11 71 230 11'7
2025-12-05 71 350 30'9