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Champions League · League Stage · Matchday 4

Momentum

InterKairat
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Capacity
75,817
Surface
grass
Attendance
69,983

Teams

Coaches
Cristian Chivu · Rafael Urazbakhtin
Position
4 · 34
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
14.1° (feels 12.6°)
Wind
1.1
Humidity
39%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 8800 23419 24 WWWWW
2 FC Bayern München 8701 22814 21 WLWWW
3 Liverpool 8602 20812 18 WLWWW
4 Tottenham Hotspur 8521 17710 17 WLWWW
5 FC Barcelona 8512 22148 16 DLWWW
6 Chelsea 8512 17107 16 DWLWW
7 Sporting CP 8512 17116 16 DWLWW
8 Manchester City 8512 1596 16 WLWLW
9 Real Madrid 8503 21129 15 LWLWL
10 Inter 8503 1578 15 WLLLW
11 Paris Saint Germain 8422 211110 14 LWDLD
12 Newcastle United 8422 17710 14 WLDWD
13 Juventus 8341 14104 13 DWWWD
14 Atlético de Madrid 8413 17152 13 WWWDL
15 Atalanta 8413 10100 13 WWWLL
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8332 1314-1 12 WWDLW
17 Borussia Dortmund 8323 19172 11 LWDLL
18 Olympiacos F.C. 8323 1014-4 11 DLWWW
19 Club Brugge 8314 1517-2 10 DLLWW
20 Galatasaray 8314 911-2 10 WLLDL
21 Monaco 8242 814-6 10 WDWLD
22 Qarabağ 8314 1321-8 10 DLLWL
23 Bodø / Glimt 8233 1415-1 9 LLDWW
24 Benfica 8305 1012-2 9 LWWLW
25 Olympique Marseille 8305 1114-3 9 LWWLL
26 Pafos FC 8233 811-3 9 WDLLW
27 Union Saint-Gilloise 8305 817-9 9 LWLLW
28 PSV 8224 16160 8 DWLLL
29 Athletic Club 8224 914-5 8 LDDWL
30 Napoli 8224 915-6 8 DWLDL
31 FC København 8224 1221-9 8 LWWDL
32 Ajax 8206 821-13 6 LLWWL
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8116 1021-11 4 DLLLL
34 Slavia Praha 8035 519-14 3 LDLLL
35 Villarreal 8017 518-13 1 LLLLL
36 Kairat 8017 722-15 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Inter

WWLWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 4 · xG 11.27–5.65 · xPts 9.65

  • W A Hellas Verona 2–1 xG 1.07–0.58 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 3–0 xG 2.94–1.0 ITA SA
  • L A Napoli 1–3 xG 1.82–1.39 ITA SA
  • W A Union Saint-Gilloise 4–0 xG 4.36–1.25 UEFA CL
  • W A Roma 1–0 xG 1.09–1.43 ITA SA

Kairat

DDLLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 1 GA 9 · xG 4.44–9.25 · xPts 4.65

  • D H Pafos FC 0–0 xG 1.85–1.18 UEFA CL
  • L H Real Madrid 0–5 xG 0.42–3.03 UEFA CL
  • L A Sporting CP 1–4 xG 0.82–3.47 UEFA CL
  • D H Celtic 0–0 won on pens None–None xG 0.71–0.9 UEFA CL
  • D A Celtic 0–0 xG 0.64–0.68 UEFA CL

All meetings · 1 match since 2025

Inter 10 draws0 Kairat

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 1 match

Inter 10 draws0 Kairat

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 1 match

Inter 10 draws0 Kairat

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Inter 2–1 Kairat UEFA CL · League Stage
MetricInter all · 10Inter at home · 5Kairat all · 16Kairat away · 8
Results
Matches105168
Points per game1.501.200.810.25
W / D / L5 / 0 / 52 / 0 / 33 / 4 / 90 / 2 / 6
Goals for / match1.701.400.880.88
Goals against / match1.201.401.632.00
Clean sheets40%20%38%12%
Failed to score10%20%44%38%
Both teams scored50%60%38%62%
Over 2.570%80%44%50%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.202.240.800.89
xG against / match1.041.022.222.50
xG difference1.161.23-1.41-1.61
Finishing vs xG-0.50-0.84-0.170.11
xPts / match1.971.970.670.62
Points vs xPts-0.47-0.77-0.40-0.45
Game state
Scored first50%40%25%12%
PPG when scoring first3.003.002.501.00
PPG when conceding first0.000.000.000.00
Came back from behind0%0%0%0%
Leads held100%100%75%0%
Minutes leading22%21%12%1%
Minutes level57%57%56%52%
Minutes trailing21%22%33%47%
First goal (min)46425458
First goal conceded (min)40533937
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%43%57%86%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%71%62%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.400.200.380.50
Late goals against0.300.400.190.00
Style
Possession57%59%44%39%
Shots18.020.210.98.8
On target5.45.63.43.1
Shot conversion9%7%8%10%
Shots inside box77%72%48%51%
Big chances created3.93.81.01.7
Corners6.18.03.93.0
xG from set plays27%27%23%26%
Goals from headers12%0%29%33%
Pressure index18.820.511.111.5
Dominant minutes58.659.229.217.9
Pass accuracy87%87%74%72%
Fouls10.711.212.513.5
Cards1.501.602.562.50

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Inter

0–15'02
16–30'31
31–45'51
46–60'32
61–75'23
76–90'43

Kairat

0–15'32
16–30'13
31–45'25
46–60'23
61–75'010
76–90'63

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Kairat · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: at home +0.30

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.052

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level+0.187
When behind+0.214
10 min after conceding+0.075
10 min after scoring-0.113

Situations

Against ten men+0.093
At home+0.304
Away-0.033
4+ days rest+0.157

Opposition

As favourite+0.142
Evenly matched+0.182
As underdog+0.143

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.167
Conceded when ahead-0.333
Conceded late (76+)-0.405

Ahead vs level -0.23 · Behind vs level +0.04

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-210 100%1.51.71.22.21.04

Kairat

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-18 50%0.380.631.750.752.01
4-3-34 25%1.00.751.01.081.32
4-3-2-12 12%3.02.00.0
3-4-31 6%0.02.03.01.323.97
4-4-21 6%0.00.05.00.423.03

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.02Home 93% P 92%19.0Draw 5% P 6%51.0Away 2% P 2%

Double Chance

1.02Inter Milan or Kairat Almaty17.0Draw or Kairat Almaty

Draw No Bet

41.02

Both Teams To Score

3.5Yes 27% P 31%1.28No 73% P 69%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.2Over 79% P 73%4.5Under 21% P 27%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.629 - 11 33%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.52.25Over 41%1.57Under 59%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 90–95% · away 0–5% · 123 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home92%92%97%+5.1
Draw6%6%3%-2.6
Away2%3%0%-2.5

In those fixtures: 4.3 goals a game · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 82%

Both teams to score · yes 30–40% · 559 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes31%37%40%+2.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 72.5–75% · 217 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.573%73%74%+0.3

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Career
221 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
5.43 (5.18 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
29.9 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.34
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Champions League (5-year window · 4 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 3.5 cards, 20.0 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-25 90 360 10'8
2025-10-05 61 340 61'10
2025-09-27 60 250 48'7
2025-09-24 40 260 42'10
2025-09-13 60 201 30'13
2025-08-10 60 350 61'8
2025-08-07 10 80 72'12
2025-07-09 30 120 17'8
2025-05-10 32 7
2025-04-18 50 230 50'8