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Champions League · League Stage · Matchday 4

Momentum

LiverpoolReal Madrid
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Anfield, Liverpool
Capacity
61,276
Surface
grass
Attendance
59,916

Teams

Coaches
Arne Slot · Xabi Alonso
Position
10 · 5
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Istvan Kovacs

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
14.7° (feels 14.6°)
Wind
7.5
Humidity
89%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 8800 23419 24 WWWWW
2 FC Bayern München 8701 22814 21 WLWWW
3 Liverpool 8602 20812 18 WLWWW
4 Tottenham Hotspur 8521 17710 17 WLWWW
5 FC Barcelona 8512 22148 16 DLWWW
6 Chelsea 8512 17107 16 DWLWW
7 Sporting CP 8512 17116 16 DWLWW
8 Manchester City 8512 1596 16 WLWLW
9 Real Madrid 8503 21129 15 LWLWL
10 Inter 8503 1578 15 WLLLW
11 Paris Saint Germain 8422 211110 14 LWDLD
12 Newcastle United 8422 17710 14 WLDWD
13 Juventus 8341 14104 13 DWWWD
14 Atlético de Madrid 8413 17152 13 WWWDL
15 Atalanta 8413 10100 13 WWWLL
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8332 1314-1 12 WWDLW
17 Borussia Dortmund 8323 19172 11 LWDLL
18 Olympiacos F.C. 8323 1014-4 11 DLWWW
19 Club Brugge 8314 1517-2 10 DLLWW
20 Galatasaray 8314 911-2 10 WLLDL
21 Monaco 8242 814-6 10 WDWLD
22 Qarabağ 8314 1321-8 10 DLLWL
23 Bodø / Glimt 8233 1415-1 9 LLDWW
24 Benfica 8305 1012-2 9 LWWLW
25 Olympique Marseille 8305 1114-3 9 LWWLL
26 Pafos FC 8233 811-3 9 WDLLW
27 Union Saint-Gilloise 8305 817-9 9 LWLLW
28 PSV 8224 16160 8 DWLLL
29 Athletic Club 8224 914-5 8 LDDWL
30 Napoli 8224 915-6 8 DWLDL
31 FC København 8224 1221-9 8 LWWDL
32 Ajax 8206 821-13 6 LLWWL
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8116 1021-11 4 DLLLL
34 Slavia Praha 8035 519-14 3 LDLLL
35 Villarreal 8017 518-13 1 LLLLL
36 Kairat 8017 722-15 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Liverpool

LLWLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 8 · xG 10.18–5.95 · xPts 9.62

  • W H Aston Villa 2–0 xG 1.1–0.56 UK PL
  • L A Brentford 2–3 xG 2.5–2.56 UK PL
  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 5–1 xG 2.48–0.43 UEFA CL
  • L H Manchester United 1–2 xG 2.2–1.5 UK PL
  • L A Chelsea 1–2 xG 1.9–0.89 UK PL

Real Madrid

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 2 · xG 14.01–4.33 · xPts 12.22

  • W H Valencia 4–0 xG 3.12–0.58 ESP PL
  • W H FC Barcelona 2–1 xG 3.46–1.42 ESP PL
  • W H Juventus 1–0 xG 2.62–0.94 UEFA CL
  • W A Getafe 1–0 xG 1.72–0.54 ESP PL
  • W H Villarreal 3–1 xG 3.1–0.86 ESP PL

All meetings · 12 matches since 2009

Liverpool 41 draws7 Real Madrid

Goals 12–17 · 2.42 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 42%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Liverpool 21 draws7 Real Madrid

Goals 7–17 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Liverpool 20 draws3 Real Madrid

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • W Liverpool 1–0 Real Madrid UEFA CL · League Stage
  • W Liverpool 2–0 Real Madrid UEFA CL · League Stage
  • L Real Madrid 1–0 Liverpool UEFA CL · Round of 16 · leg 2/2
  • L Liverpool 2–5 Real Madrid UEFA CL · Round of 16 · leg 1/2
  • L Liverpool 0–1 Real Madrid UEFA CL · Final
  • D Liverpool 0–0 Real Madrid UEFA CL · Quarter-finals · leg 2/2
  • L Real Madrid 3–1 Liverpool UEFA CL · Quarter-finals · leg 1/2
  • L Real Madrid 3–1 Liverpool UEFA CL · Final
  • L Real Madrid 1–0 Liverpool neutral UEFA CL · Group stage
  • L Liverpool 0–3 Real Madrid UEFA CL · Group stage
MetricLiverpool all · 12Liverpool at home · 6Real Madrid all · 14Real Madrid away · 7
Results
Matches126147
Points per game1.752.001.931.71
W / D / L7 / 0 / 54 / 0 / 29 / 0 / 54 / 0 / 3
Goals for / match2.002.502.362.43
Goals against / match1.081.331.431.86
Clean sheets42%50%29%29%
Failed to score33%17%7%14%
Both teams scored25%33%64%57%
Over 2.550%67%79%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.473.502.101.81
xG against / match0.930.761.741.80
xG difference1.532.730.360.00
Finishing vs xG-0.47-1.000.260.62
xPts / match2.072.541.571.40
Points vs xPts-0.32-0.540.360.31
Game state
Scored first50%67%64%71%
PPG when scoring first3.003.002.001.80
PPG when conceding first0.500.001.801.50
Came back from behind17%0%38%25%
Leads held100%100%75%67%
Minutes leading32%46%37%41%
Minutes level40%43%47%45%
Minutes trailing28%12%15%14%
First goal (min)36242925
First goal conceded (min)26413430
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%60%48%47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%75%45%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.330.330.430.43
Late goals against0.250.500.290.57
Style
Possession53%55%54%57%
Shots19.225.817.414.4
On target7.59.76.96.6
Shot conversion10%10%14%17%
Shots inside box70%71%67%64%
Big chances created4.86.03.94.1
Corners6.68.35.74.6
xG from set plays26%25%26%22%
Goals from headers23%21%9%19%
Pressure index23.627.514.615.9
Dominant minutes60.860.054.456.1
Pass accuracy84%84%87%87%
Fouls11.811.510.810.0
Cards1.330.833.004.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Liverpool

0–15'33
16–30'32
31–45'41
46–60'41
61–75'63
76–90'43

Real Madrid

0–15'23
16–30'131
31–45'27
46–60'73
61–75'32
76–90'64

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Liverpool · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when behind +0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.115
Early press (0-15, level)-0.325
Late push (76+, level)+0.113
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead-0.172
When level-0.075
When behind+0.573
10 min after conceding+0.453
10 min after scoring+0.474

Situations

At home-0.043
Away+0.342
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.043
As favourite+0.115

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.215
Conceded when ahead-0.072
Conceded late (76+)-0.405

Congested vs rested -0.30 · Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level +0.64

Real Madrid · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.47) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.477
Early press (0-15, level)+0.317
Late push (76+, level)+0.733

Game state

When ahead+0.346
When level+0.677
10 min after conceding-0.016
10 min after scoring+1.026

Situations

At home+0.244
Away+0.703
4+ days rest+0.456

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.693
v bottom-tier opponents+0.702
As favourite+0.477

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.056
Conceded late (76+)-0.496

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -1.19

Liverpool

Current: unbeaten 6 · winless 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 58%1.291.571.432.81.01
4-3-1-22 17%3.02.50.02.840.42
3-5-21 8%0.00.02.00.251.94
4-2-2-21 8%3.03.00.01.560.9
4-4-21 8%3.05.01.02.480.43

Real Madrid

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-27 50%1.711.861.431.851.91
4-3-33 21%2.03.01.672.471.87
4-2-3-13 21%3.03.671.332.891.01
4-1-4-11 7%0.00.01.00.342.34

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.37Home 40% P 40%3.8Draw 25% P 25%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.4Liverpool or Draw 33% P 32%1.25Liverpool or Real Madrid 37% P 38%1.57Draw or Real Madrid 30% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66% P 70%2.75No 34% P 30%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.44Over 66% P 67%2.75Under 34% P 33%

Total Corners

17.0Under 6 5%4.336 - 8 20%2.629 - 11 33%3.412 - 14 26%5.5Over 14 16%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 32.5–35% · 189 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%41%40%-0.7
Draw25%26%22%-4.0
Away35%33%38%+4.7

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 67.5–70% · 136 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes70%69%68%-0.9

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.567%66%69%+3.2

Istvan Kovacs

Career
89 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
5.37 (5.07 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 4.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Champions League (5-year window · 37 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.244.4+1.4994
Fouls / match24.222.7+1.11
Fouls per card4.75.2-0.84 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1252
Time added6.66.5+0.2761
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.3

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-01 40 260 6'8
2025-09-17 61 290 15'10
2025-08-27 10 401 85'6
2025-08-12 40 320 11'9
2025-05-31 50 200 56'3
2025-04-10 31 181 13'15
2025-03-11 · Liverpool 20 200 46'6
2025-02-19 · Real Madrid 30 180 28'4
2025-01-29 30 150 55'5
2025-01-21 22 50'6