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Champions League · League Stage · Matchday 7

Momentum

Real MadridMonaco
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Capacity
84,744
Surface
grass
Attendance
73,599

Teams

Coaches
Arbeloa · Sebastien Pocognoli
Position
7 · 19
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Espen Eskås

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
3.4° (feels 0.9°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 436

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 8800 23419 24 WWWWW
2 FC Bayern München 8701 22814 21 WLWWW
3 Liverpool 8602 20812 18 WLWWW
4 Tottenham Hotspur 8521 17710 17 WLWWW
5 FC Barcelona 8512 22148 16 DLWWW
6 Chelsea 8512 17107 16 DWLWW
7 Sporting CP 8512 17116 16 DWLWW
8 Manchester City 8512 1596 16 WLWLW
9 Real Madrid 8503 21129 15 LWLWL
10 Inter 8503 1578 15 WLLLW
11 Paris Saint Germain 8422 211110 14 LWDLD
12 Newcastle United 8422 17710 14 WLDWD
13 Juventus 8341 14104 13 DWWWD
14 Atlético de Madrid 8413 17152 13 WWWDL
15 Atalanta 8413 10100 13 WWWLL
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8332 1314-1 12 WWDLW
17 Borussia Dortmund 8323 19172 11 LWDLL
18 Olympiacos F.C. 8323 1014-4 11 DLWWW
19 Club Brugge 8314 1517-2 10 DLLWW
20 Galatasaray 8314 911-2 10 WLLDL
21 Monaco 8242 814-6 10 WDWLD
22 Qarabağ 8314 1321-8 10 DLLWL
23 Bodø / Glimt 8233 1415-1 9 LLDWW
24 Benfica 8305 1012-2 9 LWWLW
25 Olympique Marseille 8305 1114-3 9 LWWLL
26 Pafos FC 8233 811-3 9 WDLLW
27 Union Saint-Gilloise 8305 817-9 9 LWLLW
28 PSV 8224 16160 8 DWLLL
29 Athletic Club 8224 914-5 8 LDDWL
30 Napoli 8224 915-6 8 DWLDL
31 FC København 8224 1221-9 8 LWWDL
32 Ajax 8206 821-13 6 LLWWL
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8116 1021-11 4 DLLLL
34 Slavia Praha 8035 519-14 3 LDLLL
35 Villarreal 8017 518-13 1 LLLLL
36 Kairat 8017 722-15 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Real Madrid

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 10.98–6.28 · xPts 9.76

  • W H Levante 2–0 xG 2.55–0.8 ESP PL
  • W H Real Betis 5–1 xG 2.51–0.85 ESP PL
  • W H Sevilla 2–0 xG 2.49–1.26 ESP PL
  • W A Deportivo Alavés 2–1 xG 1.67–1.07 ESP PL
  • L H Manchester City 1–2 xG 1.75–2.29 UEFA CL

Monaco

LWLLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 9.89–6.82 · xPts 7.65

  • L H Lorient 1–3 xG 1.21–1.07 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Lyonnais 1–3 xG 0.54–1.43 FRA L1
  • L A Olympique Marseille 0–1 xG 1.81–1.81 FRA L1
  • W H Galatasaray 1–0 xG 5.52–1.74 UEFA CL
  • L A Brest 0–1 xG 0.82–0.77 FRA L1

All meetings · 3 matches since 2004

Real Madrid 20 draws1 Monaco

Goals 11–6 · 5.67 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Real Madrid 20 draws1 Monaco

Goals 11–6 · 5.67 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Real Madrid 20 draws1 Monaco

Goals 11–6 · 5.67 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Real Madrid 6–1 Monaco UEFA CL · League Stage
  • L Monaco 3–1 Real Madrid UEFA CL · Quarter-finals · leg 2/2
  • W Real Madrid 4–2 Monaco UEFA CL · Quarter-finals · leg 1/2
MetricReal Madrid all · 14Real Madrid at home · 7Monaco all · 10Monaco away · 5
Results
Matches147105
Points per game1.932.141.101.00
W / D / L9 / 0 / 55 / 0 / 22 / 5 / 31 / 2 / 2
Goals for / match2.362.291.201.40
Goals against / match1.431.001.902.80
Clean sheets29%29%40%20%
Failed to score7%0%20%0%
Both teams scored64%71%60%80%
Over 2.579%86%60%80%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.102.391.841.50
xG against / match1.741.682.012.43
xG difference0.360.71-0.16-0.93
Finishing vs xG0.26-0.10-0.64-0.10
xPts / match1.571.741.280.95
Points vs xPts0.360.40-0.180.05
Game state
Scored first64%57%50%60%
PPG when scoring first2.002.251.601.67
PPG when conceding first1.802.000.330.00
Came back from behind38%50%40%33%
Leads held75%83%40%33%
Minutes leading37%34%22%30%
Minutes level47%50%51%32%
Minutes trailing15%16%27%37%
First goal (min)29334351
First goal conceded (min)34372629
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%50%42%43%
Goals conceded in 2nd half45%29%47%57%
Late goals for (76'+)0.430.430.300.40
Late goals against0.290.000.200.40
Style
Possession54%51%41%43%
Shots17.420.413.413.2
On target6.97.34.84.6
Shot conversion14%11%9%11%
Shots inside box67%69%70%70%
Big chances created3.93.73.32.4
Corners5.76.94.84.4
xG from set plays26%28%34%20%
Goals from headers9%0%8%0%
Pressure index14.613.210.27.8
Dominant minutes54.452.739.231.0
Pass accuracy87%88%81%83%
Fouls10.811.611.511.4
Cards3.001.712.403.40

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Real Madrid

0–15'23
16–30'131
31–45'27
46–60'73
61–75'32
76–90'64

Monaco

0–15'22
16–30'33
31–45'25
46–60'03
61–75'24
76–90'32

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Real Madrid · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.48) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.487
Early press (0-15, level)+0.317
Late push (76+, level)+0.733

Game state

When ahead+0.346
When level+0.677
10 min after conceding-0.016
10 min after scoring+1.026

Situations

At home+0.244
Away+0.703
4+ days rest+0.456

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.693
v bottom-tier opponents+0.702
As favourite+0.487

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.056
Conceded late (76+)-0.496

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -1.19

Monaco · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.037
Early press (0-15, level)+0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.162

Game state

When ahead-0.096
When level+0.037
When behind+0.122
10 min after conceding-0.434
10 min after scoring+0.267

Situations

At home-0.113
Away+0.024
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.025

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.223
As favourite-0.044
Evenly matched+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.196
Conceded late (76+)+0.106

Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level +0.09

Real Madrid

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-27 50%1.711.861.431.851.91
4-2-3-13 21%3.03.671.332.891.01
4-3-33 21%2.03.01.672.471.87
4-1-4-11 7%0.00.01.00.342.34

Monaco

Current: unbeaten 7 · wins 1 · scoring 8 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 40%1.01.52.752.42.42
3-4-2-13 30%1.00.670.671.570.97
4-2-2-21 10%0.01.04.01.413.63
3-1-4-21 10%3.01.00.01.411.94
3-5-21 10%1.02.02.01.31.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.3Home 73% P 74%6.0Draw 16% P 15%8.5Away 11% P 11%

Double Chance

1.08Real Madrid or Draw 44% P 45%1.12Real Madrid or Monaco 42% P 42%3.4Draw or Monaco 14% P 13%

Draw No Bet

1.11 86%7.02 14%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 62%2.25No 41% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 72%3.2Under 30% P 28%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.412 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 50%1.83Under 50% P 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 72.5–75% · away 10–12.5% · 193 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home74%73%73%-0.8
Draw15%16%18%+1.6
Away11%11%10%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.5 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 72%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 478 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.572%71%70%-1.3

Espen Eskås

Career
49 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.45 (4.33 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
20.5 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.33
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Champions League (5-year window · 22 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.54.4-1.166
Fouls / match21.122.7-0.86
Fouls per card6.05.2+0.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.320.32-0.1645
Time added8.26.5+2.23100
First card
41' on average
Card timing
12% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.29

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-04 40 230 45'9
2025-10-23 10 180 45'7
2025-09-30 20 181 58'6
2025-08-28 61 271 13'8
2025-08-20 50 210 6'13
2025-08-06 40 260 11'5
2025-05-01 61 261 35'8
2025-04-09 20 170 24'2
2025-03-13 110 290 19'7
2025-03-05 50 211 68'6