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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 2

Momentum

PortoCRV
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
2

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Capacity
50,033
Surface
grass
Attendance
42,812

Teams

Coaches
Francesco Farioli · Vladan Milojević
Position
12 · 22
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
22.8° (feels 22.4°)
Wind
3.8
Humidity
46%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Porto

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 1 · xG 9.89–3.81 · xPts 10.65

  • W A Arouca 4–0 xG 2.33–0.9 PRT PL
  • W A Salzburg 1–0 xG 1.26–1.2 UEFA EL
  • W A Rio Ave 3–0 xG 2.69–0.32 PRT PL
  • W H Nacional 1–0 xG 1.98–0.12 PRT PL
  • W A Sporting CP 2–1 xG 1.63–1.27 PRT PL

Crvena Zvezda

WDLDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 6.94–5.01 · xPts 6.8

  • D H Celtic 1–1 xG 1.76–1.54 UEFA EL
  • D A Pafos FC 1–1 xG 0.97–0.71 UEFA CL
  • L H Pafos FC 1–2 xG 2.56–2.05 UEFA CL
  • D H Lech Poznań 1–1 UEFA CL
  • W A Lech Poznań 3–1 xG 1.65–0.71 UEFA CL

All meetings · 1 match since 2025

Porto 10 draws0 Crvena Zvezda

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 1 match

Porto 10 draws0 Crvena Zvezda

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 1 match

Porto 10 draws0 Crvena Zvezda

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Porto 2–1 Crvena Zvezda UEFA EL · League Stage
MetricPorto all · 12Porto at home · 6Crvena Zvezda all · 10Crvena Zvezda away · 5
Results
Matches126105
Points per game2.002.671.701.80
W / D / L7 / 3 / 25 / 1 / 05 / 2 / 33 / 0 / 2
Goals for / match1.502.170.800.80
Goals against / match0.830.670.800.80
Clean sheets25%33%50%60%
Failed to score17%0%20%20%
Both teams scored58%67%30%20%
Over 2.542%67%10%20%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.691.991.331.12
xG against / match1.000.791.171.15
xG difference0.691.200.15-0.03
Finishing vs xG-0.190.18-0.53-0.32
xPts / match1.832.141.501.40
Points vs xPts0.170.530.200.40
Game state
Scored first58%83%50%60%
PPG when scoring first2.712.603.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.003.000.400.00
Came back from behind60%100%40%0%
Leads held88%83%100%100%
Minutes leading34%55%21%34%
Minutes level41%41%55%45%
Minutes trailing25%4%24%21%
First goal (min)36165537
First goal conceded (min)30353515
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half33%23%62%25%
Goals conceded in 2nd half30%25%57%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.250.170.200.00
Late goals against0.170.170.300.20
Style
Possession52%49%49%49%
Shots14.314.012.010.4
On target5.15.53.12.8
Shot conversion10%16%7%8%
Shots inside box64%66%66%65%
Big chances created2.83.82.12.2
Corners5.14.55.54.8
xG from set plays23%18%36%28%
Goals from headers11%15%25%25%
Pressure index20.823.99.811.5
Dominant minutes57.459.040.841.2
Pass accuracy83%84%80%81%
Fouls11.211.212.812.2
Cards2.421.502.402.40

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Porto

0–15'34
16–30'51
31–45'42
46–60'01
61–75'30
76–90'32

Crvena Zvezda

0–15'02
16–30'11
31–45'20
46–60'21
61–75'11
76–90'22

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Porto · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: when level +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.407
Early press (0-15, level)+0.717

Game state

When ahead+0.146
When level+0.807
When behind+0.193
10 min after conceding+0.203
10 min after scoring+0.616

Situations

At home+0.404
Away+0.393
4+ days rest+0.407

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.605
As favourite+0.566

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.126
Conceded late (76+)+0.026

Ahead vs level -0.67 · Behind vs level -0.61

Crvena Zvezda · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when ahead +0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.115
Early press (0-15, level)+0.065
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.032

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.085
When behind+0.062
10 min after conceding-0.202
10 min after scoring+0.144

Situations

With ten men+0.172
At home-0.023
Away+0.302
4+ days rest+0.115

Opposition

As favourite+0.244

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.273
Conceded late (76+)-0.293

Ahead vs level +0.47 · Behind vs level +0.14

Porto

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-312 100%2.01.50.831.691.0

Crvena Zvezda

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 70%1.570.860.861.361.36
3-4-2-11 10%3.01.00.01.340.58
3-1-4-21 10%0.00.02.01.071.26
4-1-4-11 10%3.01.00.01.370.36

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.61Home 59% P 59%4.1Draw 23% P 23%5.25Away 18% P 18%

Double Chance

1.16FC Porto or Draw 41% P 41%1.22FC Porto or Crvena Zvezda 39% P 38%2.25Draw or Crvena Zvezda 21% P 21%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 54%2.0No 47% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 55%2.1Under 45% P 45%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56% P 57%2.1Under 44% P 43%
5.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 17.5–20% · 511 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home59%59%60%+1.3
Draw23%23%24%+1.3
Away18%18%16%-2.6

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 57%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%55%+0.8

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 18 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.54.72+0.6979
Fouls / match23.824.1-0.11
Fouls per card4.35.1-0.92 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.33-0.5830
Time added6.96.6+0.2264
First card
22' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-14 50 221 36'9
2025-08-23 40 180 12'8
2025-08-07 40 250 10'6
2025-05-17 41 181 9'5
2025-05-04 20 241 85'8
2025-04-06 10 270 77'7
2025-03-16 40 280 54'7
2025-03-02 20 220 45'5
2025-02-15 10 160 49'6
2025-01-30 40 240 9'7