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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 4

Momentum

FerencvárosiLudogorets
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Groupama Aréna, Budapest
Capacity
22,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,789

Teams

Coaches
Robbie Keane · Todor Zhivondov
Position
7 · 28
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Mohammed Al Hakim

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
11.8° (feels 10.5°)
Wind
2.9
Humidity
56%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Ferencvárosi

LWDWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 8.81–5.25 · xPts 9.0

  • W A Salzburg 3–2 xG 2.55–1.26 UEFA EL
  • W A Genk 1–0 xG 1.3–1.19 UEFA EL
  • D H Viktoria Plzeň 1–1 xG 1.13–0.73 UEFA EL
  • W A Qarabağ 3–2 xG 2.81–1.25 UEFA CL
  • L H Qarabağ 1–3 xG 1.02–0.81 UEFA CL

Ludogorets

LWWLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 9 GA 9 · xG 6.95–6.0 · xPts 6.12

  • L A Young Boys 2–3 xG 1.01–3.47 UEFA EL
  • L H Real Betis 0–2 xG 0.4–1.1 UEFA EL
  • W A Malmö FF 2–1 xG 2.61–0.52 UEFA EL
  • W H Skendija 79 4–1 aet xG 2.93–0.91 UEFA EL
  • L A Skendija 79 1–2 UEFA EL

All meetings · 9 matches since 2019

Ferencvárosi 52 draws2 Ludogorets

Goals 15–10 · 2.78 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 9 matches

Ferencvárosi 52 draws2 Ludogorets

Goals 15–10 · 2.78 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ferencvárosi 31 draws1 Ludogorets

Goals 9–3 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Ferencvárosi 2–0 Ludogorets UEFA EL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 2/2
  • L Ludogorets 2–1 Ferencvárosi UEFA EL · Knockout Round Play-offs · leg 1/2
  • W Ferencvárosi 3–1 Ludogorets UEFA EL · League Stage
  • W Ferencvárosi 3–0 Ludogorets UEFA CL · Qualification Round 3 · leg 2/2
  • D Ludogorets 0–0 Ferencvárosi UEFA CL · Qualification Round 3 · leg 1/2
  • D Ludogorets 1–1 Ferencvárosi UEFA EL · Group Stage
  • L Ferencvárosi 0–3 Ludogorets UEFA EL · Group Stage
  • W Ludogorets 2–3 Ferencvárosi neutral UEFA CL · 1st Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
  • W Ferencvárosi 2–1 Ludogorets UEFA CL · 1st Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
MetricFerencvárosi all · 12Ferencvárosi at home · 6Ludogorets all · 12Ludogorets away · 6
Results
Matches126126
Points per game1.752.331.330.50
W / D / L6 / 3 / 34 / 2 / 05 / 1 / 61 / 0 / 5
Goals for / match1.421.831.581.00
Goals against / match1.420.671.752.00
Clean sheets25%33%8%0%
Failed to score17%0%25%33%
Both teams scored58%67%67%67%
Over 2.550%33%67%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.401.611.551.41
xG against / match1.211.021.611.86
xG difference0.190.59-0.06-0.44
Finishing vs xG0.020.220.09-0.41
xPts / match1.491.771.341.18
Points vs xPts0.260.570.12-0.58
Game state
Scored first50%67%67%50%
PPG when scoring first2.332.502.001.00
PPG when conceding first1.172.000.000.00
Came back from behind50%100%14%0%
Leads held75%80%62%33%
Minutes leading30%44%36%22%
Minutes level42%39%33%30%
Minutes trailing28%17%31%48%
First goal (min)46462832
First goal conceded (min)38524239
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%54%41%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half47%50%57%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.330.420.33
Late goals against0.250.330.330.33
Style
Possession45%46%49%49%
Shots11.613.815.114.8
On target4.04.24.84.2
Shot conversion12%13%10%7%
Shots inside box70%71%56%61%
Big chances created2.52.32.01.8
Corners3.64.23.53.3
xG from set plays36%29%29%21%
Goals from headers29%18%11%0%
Pressure index9.110.318.56.7
Dominant minutes37.442.844.335.0
Pass accuracy80%80%84%85%
Fouls14.914.512.012.7
Cards2.752.832.002.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ferencvárosi

0–15'13
16–30'25
31–45'41
46–60'42
61–75'43
76–90'23

Ludogorets

0–15'31
16–30'52
31–45'26
46–60'15
61–75'33
76–90'34

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ferencvárosi · 8 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.218
Early press (0-15, level)-0.438
Late push (76+, level)-0.154

Game state

When ahead-0.177
When level-0.248
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.108

Situations

Against ten men+0.063
At home-0.113
Away-0.255
4+ days rest-0.218

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.332
Evenly matched-0.194
As underdog-0.273

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.208
Conceded when ahead+0.097
Conceded late (76+)-0.246

Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.20

Ludogorets · 2 matches

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.042
Early press (0-15, level)-0.142

Game state

When level-0.162
When behind+0.332
10 min after conceding-0.132

Situations

4+ days rest+0.042

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.302
Conceded late (76+)-0.352

Ahead vs level -0.59 · Behind vs level +0.48

Ferencvárosi

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 3 · scoring 8 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-27 58%2.291.861.01.71.2
3-4-2-12 17%0.50.52.51.211.59
3-4-1-22 17%1.51.02.00.681.09
3-1-4-21 8%1.01.01.01.130.73

Ludogorets

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-36 50%1.01.51.831.651.7
4-2-3-14 33%2.251.51.01.451.27
4-1-4-11 8%0.01.03.01.011.69
4-4-21 8%1.03.03.01.952.44

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.57Home 60% P 60%4.1Draw 23% P 23%5.5Away 17% P 17%

Double Chance

1.14Ferencvarosi TC or Draw 41% P 42%1.22Ferencvarosi TC or Ludogorets Razgrad 39% P 38%2.37Draw or Ludogorets Razgrad 20% P 20%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.95Yes 48% P 50%1.8No 52% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 52%1.9Under 50% P 48%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 41%1.61Under 58% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 15–17.5% · 555 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home60%59%57%-1.5
Draw23%25%28%+3.8
Away17%16%14%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 49%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Mohammed Al Hakim

Career
42 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.71 (3.55 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 15 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.84.72-1.0611
Fouls / match22.524.1-0.72
Fouls per card5.95.1+0.76 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.270.33-0.2943
Time added6.56.6-0.2134
First card
33' on average
Card timing
22% in first 30' · 20% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.5

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-02 40 290 34'8
2025-08-21 41 251 45'10
2025-08-07 40 170 27'8
2025-01-23 · Ludogorets 40 280 28'6
2024-12-19 20 240 59'5
2024-11-07 · Ferencvárosi 51 140 17'7