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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 5

Momentum

PAOSturm Graz
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Athens
Capacity
69,618
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,013

Teams

Coaches
Rafael Benítez Maudes · Jürgen Säumel
Position
19 · 28
Formation
3-4-3 · 4-3-1-2

Referee

Simone Sozza

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
13.9° (feels 13.5°)
Wind
6.7
Humidity
83%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Panathinaikos

DWLLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 7.63–7.98 · xPts 6.68

  • W A Malmö FF 1–0 xG 1.57–1.88 UEFA EL
  • L A Feyenoord 1–3 xG 1.04–2.37 UEFA EL
  • L H Go Ahead Eagles 1–2 xG 2.4–1.03 UEFA EL
  • W A Young Boys 4–1 xG 1.85–1.83 UEFA EL
  • D A Samsunspor 0–0 xG 0.77–0.86 UEFA EL

Sturm Graz

WLWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 4.32–9.0 · xPts 4.69

  • D H Nottingham Forest 0–0 xG 0.1–1.78 UEFA EL
  • L A Celtic 1–2 xG 0.46–3.56 UEFA EL
  • W H Rangers 2–1 xG 1.27–2.33 UEFA EL
  • L A FC Midtjylland 0–2 xG 0.75–0.43 UEFA EL
  • W H Bodø / Glimt 2–1 xG 1.75–0.9 UEFA CL

All meetings · 5 matches since 2001

Panathinaikos 30 draws2 Sturm Graz

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 10 · 5 matches

Panathinaikos 30 draws2 Sturm Graz

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Panathinaikos 30 draws2 Sturm Graz

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Panathinaikos 2–1 Sturm Graz UEFA EL · League Stage
  • W Sturm Graz 0–1 Panathinaikos neutral UEFA EL · Group stage
  • W Panathinaikos 1–0 Sturm Graz neutral UEFA EL · Group stage
  • L Panathinaikos 1–2 Sturm Graz UEFA CL · 2nd Group Stage
  • L Sturm Graz 2–0 Panathinaikos UEFA CL · 2nd Group Stage
MetricPanathinaikos all · 16Panathinaikos at home · 8Sturm Graz all · 8Sturm Graz away · 4
Results
Matches1688
Points per game1.441.630.88
W / D / L5 / 8 / 33 / 4 / 12 / 1 / 5
Goals for / match1.061.130.63
Goals against / match1.060.881.38
Clean sheets38%38%25%
Failed to score31%25%50%
Both teams scored56%62%38%
Over 2.544%50%50%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.391.190.65
xG against / match1.460.681.81
xG difference-0.070.51-1.16
Finishing vs xG-0.250.09-0.02
xPts / match1.361.720.71
Points vs xPts0.110.000.16
Game state
Scored first50%50%38%
PPG when scoring first1.751.752.00
PPG when conceding first1.252.000.00
Came back from behind50%67%0%
Leads held50%50%67%
Minutes leading18%15%19%
Minutes level69%79%45%
Minutes trailing12%6%36%
First goal (min)485335
First goal conceded (min)455032
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%78%20%
Goals conceded in 2nd half65%71%73%
Late goals for (76'+)0.190.130.13
Late goals against0.250.380.25
Style
Possession49%53%45%
Shots12.413.810.0
On target4.24.83.1
Shot conversion9%8%6%
Shots inside box58%58%59%
Big chances created1.71.40.9
Corners4.87.12.8
xG from set plays41%35%23%
Goals from headers24%44%0%
Pressure index15.823.74.3
Dominant minutes47.860.426.6
Pass accuracy81%82%76%
Fouls11.310.417.1
Cards3.062.382.13

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Panathinaikos

0–15'32
16–30'31
31–45'13
46–60'23
61–75'54
76–90'34

Sturm Graz

0–15'22
16–30'01
31–45'20
46–60'02
61–75'04
76–90'12

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Panathinaikos · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.76

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.405
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435
Late push (76+, level)+0.303

Game state

When ahead+0.204
When level+0.525
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.765

Situations

At home+0.212
Away+0.553
4+ days rest+0.405

Opposition

As favourite+0.405

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.325
Conceded when ahead-0.324
Conceded late (76+)-0.345

Ahead vs level -0.31 · Behind vs level -0.23

Sturm Graz · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.34

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.344

Game state

When ahead-0.242
When level+0.124
10 min after scoring-0.152

Situations

At home-0.143
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

As underdog+0.013

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.494
Conceded when ahead+0.142
Conceded late (76+)-0.053

Ahead vs level -0.36 · Behind vs level -0.50

Panathinaikos

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-35 31%1.00.81.21.311.09
4-2-3-14 25%2.01.250.251.611.31
3-4-2-13 19%1.01.331.332.262.45
5-4-12 12%0.50.52.50.562.03
3-4-32 12%3.01.50.50.780.57

Sturm Graz

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-1-24 50%1.00.751.00.472.07
4-2-3-12 25%1.51.01.51.011.38
4-1-3-21 12%0.00.01.01.151.65
4-4-21 12%0.00.03.00.131.77

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.53Home 62% P 62%4.33Draw 22% P 22%5.75Away 16% P 16%

Double Chance

1.14Panathinaikos or Draw 41% P 42%1.2Panathinaikos or SK Sturm Graz 39% P 39%2.37Draw or SK Sturm Graz 20% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 54%2.0No 47% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw22%23%23%+0.7
Away16%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,508 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.454.72+0.6477
Fouls / match23.824.1-0.11
Fouls per card4.85.1-0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.730.33+2.7298
Time added6.86.6+0.1157
First card
33' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-23 30 161 45'8
2025-11-05 50 160 41'7
2025-10-29 31 271 49'5
2025-10-19 71 271 28'8
2025-09-27 31 130 32'7
2025-09-21 21 360 83'10
2025-09-18 40 201 10'7
2025-08-28 15 38'5
2025-08-24 60 320 43'10
2025-07-30 · Panathinaikos 30 240 45'8