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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 5

Momentum

PAOKBrann
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
Capacity
28,703
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,005

Teams

Coaches
Răzvan Lucescu · Freyr Alexandersson
Position
10 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
12.7° (feels 12.4°)
Wind
2.8
Humidity
91%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Olympique Lyonnais 8701 18513 21 LWWWW
2 Aston Villa 8701 1468 21 WWWWW
3 FC Midtjylland 8611 18810 19 WLWDW
4 Real Betis 8521 1376 17 WWWLW
5 Porto 8521 1376 17 DWWDW
6 Sporting Braga 8521 1156 17 LDWWD
7 SC Freiburg 8521 1046 17 WDWWL
8 Roma 8512 1367 16 WWWWD
9 Genk 8512 1174 16 WWLWW
10 Bologna 8431 1477 15 DWWDW
11 VfB Stuttgart 8503 1596 15 WWWLW
12 Ferencvárosi 8431 12111 15 WDWDL
13 Nottingham Forest 8422 1578 14 DWWLW
14 Viktoria Plzeň 8350 835 14 DDDDW
15 Crvena Zvezda 8422 761 14 WWWWD
16 Celta de Vigo 8413 15114 13 WLLWD
17 PAOK 8332 17143 12 WDDWL
18 LOSC Lille 8404 1293 12 LWLLW
19 Fenerbahçe 8332 1073 12 DDWLD
20 Panathinaikos 8332 1192 12 WWDDD
21 Celtic 8323 1315-2 11 LWLDW
22 Ludogorets 8314 1215-3 10 LWDLW
23 Dinamo Zagreb 8314 1216-4 10 LLLWL
24 Brann 8233 911-2 9 DDLDL
25 Young Boys 8305 1016-6 9 LLWLL
26 Sturm Graz 8215 511-6 7 DLLLW
27 FCSB 8215 916-7 7 LLWLD
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8215 614-8 7 LLLLD
29 Feyenoord 8206 1115-4 6 LLLWL
30 Basel 8206 913-4 6 WLLLL
31 Salzburg 8206 1015-5 6 WLLWL
32 Rangers 8116 514-9 4 LDLWL
33 Nice 8107 715-8 3 LLLWL
34 FC Utrecht 8017 515-10 1 DLLLL
35 Malmö FF 8017 415-11 1 LLLLL
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv 8017 222-20 1 LLLLL
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

PAOK

WDLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 6 · xG 9.89–4.8 · xPts 9.59

  • W H Young Boys 4–0 xG 3.36–0.29 UEFA EL
  • W A LOSC Lille 4–3 xG 1.93–1.54 UEFA EL
  • L A Celta de Vigo 1–3 xG 0.7–1.66 UEFA EL
  • D H Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–0 xG 1.59–0.91 UEFA EL
  • W H Rijeka 5–0 xG 2.31–0.4 UEFA EL

Brann

WLWWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 2 · xG 6.2–5.43 · xPts 7.08

  • D A Bologna 0–0 xG 0.43–1.15 UEFA EL
  • W H Rangers 3–0 xG 2.65–1.01 UEFA EL
  • W H FC Utrecht 1–0 xG 0.93–0.49 UEFA EL
  • L A LOSC Lille 1–2 xG 1.2–1.59 UEFA EL
  • W A AEK Larnaca 4–0 xG 0.99–1.19 UEFA EL

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

PAOK 02 draws1 Brann

Goals 4–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

PAOK 02 draws1 Brann

Goals 4–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

PAOK 02 draws1 Brann

Goals 4–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • L Brann 3–2 PAOK UEFA ECL · Play-offs · leg 2/2
  • D PAOK 1–1 Brann UEFA ECL · Play-offs · leg 1/2
  • D PAOK 1–1 Brann UEFA EL · League Stage
MetricPAOK all · 14PAOK at home · 7Brann all · 14Brann away · 7
Results
Matches147147
Points per game1.361.711.291.14
W / D / L5 / 4 / 53 / 3 / 15 / 3 / 62 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match1.711.861.211.14
Goals against / match1.290.431.070.71
Clean sheets43%71%36%43%
Failed to score29%29%43%43%
Both teams scored43%29%29%29%
Over 2.550%43%43%29%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.451.821.451.30
xG against / match1.250.931.371.30
xG difference0.200.890.080.00
Finishing vs xG0.260.03-0.27-0.30
xPts / match1.421.811.401.32
Points vs xPts-0.06-0.09-0.30-0.48
Game state
Scored first57%57%29%29%
PPG when scoring first2.002.503.003.00
PPG when conceding first0.250.000.560.25
Came back from behind17%0%33%25%
Leads held56%75%100%100%
Minutes leading22%26%16%17%
Minutes level62%65%54%71%
Minutes trailing16%9%30%12%
First goal (min)50554356
First goal conceded (min)49623765
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half65%85%65%75%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%33%47%100%
Late goals for (76'+)0.430.570.360.29
Late goals against0.360.140.140.29
Style
Possession50%56%49%48%
Shots11.613.711.411.4
On target4.75.94.84.0
Shot conversion15%14%11%10%
Shots inside box67%71%72%71%
Big chances created2.73.32.82.8
Corners4.45.94.84.0
xG from set plays26%19%43%40%
Goals from headers12%15%22%20%
Pressure index16.317.510.27.4
Dominant minutes50.668.141.237.9
Pass accuracy83%84%78%77%
Fouls12.211.611.310.0
Cards2.501.861.501.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

PAOK

0–15'10
16–30'40
31–45'36
46–60'33
61–75'74
76–90'55

Brann

0–15'03
16–30'31
31–45'34
46–60'32
61–75'33
76–90'52

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

PAOK · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.16) · stands out: when behind +0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.166
Early press (0-15, level)-0.126
Late push (76+, level)+0.242
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.424

Game state

When ahead-0.382
When level+0.156
When behind+0.445
10 min after conceding-0.035
10 min after scoring+0.105

Situations

At home+0.303
Away+0.033
4+ days rest+0.166

Opposition

As favourite+0.303
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.206
Conceded when ahead-0.012
Conceded late (76+)-0.426

Ahead vs level -0.53 · Behind vs level +0.29

Brann · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.045
Early press (0-15, level)+0.135
Late push (76+, level)-0.494

Game state

When ahead-0.015
When level-0.075
10 min after conceding-0.415
10 min after scoring+0.285

Situations

At home-0.032
Away-0.053
4+ days rest-0.045

Opposition

As favourite+0.122
Evenly matched-0.092

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.045
Conceded when ahead-0.225
Conceded late (76+)-0.195

Ahead vs level +0.06

PAOK

Current: winless 4 · scoring 3 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-114 100%1.361.711.291.451.25

Brann

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 11

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-310 71%1.61.40.71.561.16
4-4-23 21%0.671.02.331.441.91
4-1-3-21 7%0.00.01.00.711.2

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.55Home 61% P 62%4.2Draw 23% P 22%6.0Away 16% P 16%

Double Chance

1.12PAOK Salonika or Draw 42% P 42%1.2PAOK Salonika or SK Brann 39% P 39%2.37Draw or SK Brann 20% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.181 79%4.52 21%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 53%2.0No 47% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 33%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
5.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw22%23%23%+0.7
Away16%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.556%56%56%-0.2

Sascha Stegemann

Career
194 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 13 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.854.72+2.0998
Fouls / match27.124.1+1.41
Fouls per card4.05.1-1.31 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.33+0.4870
Time added7.06.6+0.3270
First card
24' on average
Card timing
22% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-21 51 260 24'11
2025-10-25 31 151 19'16
2025-10-04 40 270 6'9
2025-09-24 50 320 2'5
2025-09-19 20 281 40'7
2025-08-24 30 200 34'8
2025-08-21 50 370 12'8
2025-08-14 10 191 14'8
2025-05-17 10 6
2025-05-02 10 220 45'18