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Europa Conference League · League Stage · Matchday 3

Momentum

FSV Mainz 05Fiorentina
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Capacity
34,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,300

Teams

Coaches
Bo Henriksen · Daniele Galloppa
Position
6 · 1
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Lawrence Visser

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
11.5° (feels 10.2°)
Wind
1.7
Humidity
57%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

FSV Mainz 05

LLWLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 11 · xG 9.27–7.65 · xPts 7.68

  • D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 1.38–0.58 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 1–2 xG 1.72–1.68 GER BI
  • W H Zrinjski 1–0 xG 3.55–0.1 UEFA ECL
  • L H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–4 xG 1.82–3.65 GER BI
  • L A Hamburger SV 0–4 xG 0.79–1.65 GER BI

Fiorentina

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 9.08–7.73 · xPts 7.66

  • L H Lecce 0–1 xG 1.27–0.92 ITA SA
  • L A Inter 0–3 xG 1.0–2.94 ITA SA
  • D H Bologna 2–2 xG 3.6–0.82 ITA SA
  • W A SK Rapid 3–0 xG 2.11–0.89 UEFA ECL
  • L A AC Milan 1–2 xG 1.1–2.16 ITA SA

All meetings · 1 match since 2025

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws0 Fiorentina

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 1 match

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws0 Fiorentina

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 1 match

FSV Mainz 05 10 draws0 Fiorentina

Goals 2–1 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Fiorentina UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricFSV Mainz 05 all · 12FSV Mainz 05 at home · 6Fiorentina all · 14Fiorentina away · 7
Results
Matches126147
Points per game1.923.001.931.71
W / D / L7 / 2 / 36 / 0 / 09 / 0 / 54 / 0 / 3
Goals for / match1.332.171.791.71
Goals against / match0.830.331.211.00
Clean sheets50%67%29%43%
Failed to score25%0%21%29%
Both teams scored33%33%50%29%
Over 2.533%33%79%86%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.522.141.911.76
xG against / match1.340.841.281.57
xG difference0.191.300.630.19
Finishing vs xG-0.190.03-0.13-0.05
xPts / match1.522.111.791.56
Points vs xPts0.400.890.140.16
Game state
Scored first67%83%43%57%
PPG when scoring first2.383.002.502.25
PPG when conceding first1.003.001.501.00
Came back from behind25%100%44%25%
Leads held78%100%90%80%
Minutes leading31%53%32%40%
Minutes level56%37%40%41%
Minutes trailing13%10%29%19%
First goal (min)39374331
First goal conceded (min)38243949
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half44%46%70%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half40%0%50%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.330.710.43
Late goals against0.080.000.210.29
Style
Possession49%48%51%47%
Shots13.616.515.113.9
On target4.05.55.34.7
Shot conversion10%13%12%12%
Shots inside box71%74%71%70%
Big chances created2.33.73.12.9
Corners5.66.25.23.9
xG from set plays31%30%38%31%
Goals from headers19%23%9%10%
Pressure index17.418.413.99.4
Dominant minutes59.261.355.346.7
Pass accuracy79%78%82%81%
Fouls13.214.012.611.9
Cards2.251.672.572.29

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'10
16–30'52
31–45'34
46–60'30
61–75'23
76–90'21

Fiorentina

0–15'22
16–30'43
31–45'13
46–60'35
61–75'51
76–90'82

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-35 42%1.81.40.81.731.01
3-5-24 33%1.751.01.01.121.3
3-5-1-11 8%3.02.00.02.00.77
3-4-2-11 8%3.02.01.01.462.19
5-3-21 8%1.01.01.01.732.8

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-25 36%1.81.40.61.721.02
3-4-2-13 21%3.02.671.02.31.15
4-4-22 14%1.52.52.02.091.37
4-2-3-11 7%3.02.01.02.061.45
3-1-4-21 7%0.01.02.02.191.46

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 45%3.3Draw 29% P 29%3.6Away 26% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28Mainz or Draw 37% P 37%1.33Mainz or Fiorentina 35% P 35%1.7Draw or Fiorentina 28% P 27%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.07Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 25–27.5% · 725 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%44%44%-0.2
Draw29%30%28%-1.4
Away26%26%28%+1.6

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%44%43%-1.2

Lawrence Visser

Career
35 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
5.83 (5.4 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
25.4 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match7.04.92+2.2696
Fouls / match28.523.8+1.96
Fouls per card4.14.8-0.79 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.360.29+0.4061
Time added7.56.5+0.8580
First card
23' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-28 121 310 19'8
2025-08-14 60 261 21'11
2025-02-13 111 240 14'10
2025-01-23 51 160 7'6
2024-11-28 30 140 31'4
2024-11-07 91 240 16'10