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Europa Conference League · League Stage · Matchday 5

Momentum

Lech PoznańFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Enea stadion, Poznań
Capacity
42,837
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,139

Teams

Coaches
Niels Frederiksen · Urs Fischer
Position
20 · 10
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2

Referee

Andrei Florin Chivulete

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
7.1° (feels 4.3°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
92%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Lech Poznań

WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 11 GA 7 · xG 8.66–7.04 · xPts 7.87

  • W H Lausanne Sport 2–0 xG 1.05–1.04 UEFA ECL
  • L A Rayo Vallecano 2–3 xG 0.43–2.98 UEFA ECL
  • L A Lincoln Red Imps 1–2 xG 2.95–0.85 UEFA ECL
  • W H SK Rapid 4–1 xG 3.02–0.73 UEFA ECL
  • W A Genk 2–1 xG 1.22–1.45 UEFA EL

FSV Mainz 05

LDLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 1 GA 8 · xG 3.51–9.7 · xPts 3.49

  • L H Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 xG 0.63–2.23 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 0–4 xG 0.09–3.72 GER BI
  • L A Universitatea Craiova 0–1 xG 0.41–1.13 UEFA ECL
  • D H TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 xG 2.27–1.51 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 xG 0.11–1.11 GER BI

All meetings · 1 match since 2025

Lech Poznań 01 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 1 match

Lech Poznań 01 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 1 match

Lech Poznań 01 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–1 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • D Lech Poznań 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricLech Poznań all · 10Lech Poznań at home · 5FSV Mainz 05 all · 12FSV Mainz 05 away · 6
Results
Matches105126
Points per game1.902.001.920.83
W / D / L6 / 1 / 33 / 1 / 17 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match1.801.801.330.50
Goals against / match1.201.000.831.33
Clean sheets30%40%50%33%
Failed to score0%0%25%50%
Both teams scored70%60%33%33%
Over 2.560%40%33%33%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.092.131.520.91
xG against / match1.251.231.341.83
xG difference0.850.890.19-0.92
Finishing vs xG-0.29-0.33-0.19-0.41
xPts / match1.881.871.520.92
Points vs xPts0.020.130.40-0.09
Game state
Scored first70%60%67%50%
PPG when scoring first2.573.002.381.33
PPG when conceding first0.330.501.000.00
Came back from behind25%50%25%0%
Leads held86%100%78%33%
Minutes leading46%28%31%8%
Minutes level42%57%56%76%
Minutes trailing13%15%13%16%
First goal (min)40513943
First goal conceded (min)53433844
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half33%56%44%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half75%60%40%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.400.170.00
Late goals against0.500.200.080.17
Style
Possession54%55%49%49%
Shots14.913.813.610.7
On target5.95.64.02.5
Shot conversion12%13%10%5%
Shots inside box67%67%71%66%
Big chances created3.33.22.31.0
Corners3.82.65.65.0
xG from set plays42%31%31%32%
Goals from headers11%0%19%0%
Pressure index15.014.517.416.5
Dominant minutes52.947.859.257.0
Pass accuracy82%83%79%80%
Fouls9.010.613.212.3
Cards1.602.002.252.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Lech Poznań

0–15'40
16–30'11
31–45'72
46–60'02
61–75'32
76–90'35

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'10
16–30'52
31–45'34
46–60'30
61–75'23
76–90'21

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Lech Poznań · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.26) · stands out: at home +0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.267
Early press (0-15, level)+0.007
Late push (76+, level)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level+0.317
When behind+0.283
10 min after conceding-0.094
10 min after scoring+0.395

Situations

At home+0.443
Away+0.124
4+ days rest+0.267

Opposition

As favourite+0.244
Evenly matched+0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.287
Conceded when ahead-0.515
Conceded late (76+)-0.432

Ahead vs level -0.16 · Behind vs level -0.03

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Lech Poznań

Current: winless 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 70%1.431.861.571.91.39
4-1-4-12 20%3.01.50.02.70.57
4-4-21 10%3.02.01.02.231.6

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-35 42%1.81.40.81.731.01
3-5-24 33%1.751.01.01.121.3
3-5-1-11 8%3.02.00.02.00.77
3-4-2-11 8%3.02.01.01.462.19
5-3-21 8%1.01.01.01.732.8

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.0Home 32% P 32%3.7Draw 26% P 26%2.2Away 43% P 42%

Double Chance

1.53Lech Poznan or Draw 31% P 29%1.28Lech Poznan or Mainz 37% P 37%1.44Draw or Mainz 33% P 34%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62% P 62%2.5No 38% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 60%2.35Under 40% P 40%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home32%31%31%-0.2
Draw26%28%24%-4.2
Away42%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.560%59%60%+0.8

Andrei Florin Chivulete

Career
13 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
5.92 (5.77 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
23.3 · 3.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
38%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 9 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 6.67 cards, 19.8 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-06 20 150 64'4
2025-07-24 120 160 43'9
2025-07-15 50 310 27'15