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Europa Conference League · League Stage · Matchday 4

Momentum

UCRFSV Mainz 05
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova), Craiova
Capacity
30,983
Attendance
24,284

Teams

Coaches
Filipe Amaral Rino Coelho · Bo Henriksen
Position
20 · 3
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Dario Bel

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
5.1° (feels 1.9°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
92%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Strasbourg 6510 1156 16 DWWWW
2 Raków Częstochowa 6420 927 14 DDWWW
3 AEK Athens 6411 1477 13 WDWWW
4 Sparta Praha 6411 1037 13 LDWWW
5 Rayo Vallecano 6411 1376 13 DWLWW
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6411 1055 13 LWWWD
7 FSV Mainz 05 6411 734 13 WWLDW
8 AEK Larnaca 6330 716 12 WDDDW
9 Lausanne Sport 6321 633 11 WDLDW
10 Crystal Palace 6312 1165 10 LWLWD
11 Lech Poznań 6312 1284 10 LLWDW
12 Samsunspor 6312 1064 10 WWDLL
13 Celje 6312 871 10 WWLLD
14 AZ Alkmaar 6312 770 10 WLWWD
15 Fiorentina 6303 853 9 WLLWL
16 Rijeka 6231 523 9 WDDWD
17 Jagiellonia Białystok 6231 541 9 DDWLD
18 Omonia Nicosia 6222 541 8 DDWWL
19 Noah 6222 67-1 8 DLDWL
20 Drita 6222 48-4 8 DWWLL
21 KuPS 6141 651 7 DWLDD
22 Skendija 79 6213 45-1 7 WDLWL
23 Zrinjski 6213 810-2 7 LLWLD
24 Sigma Olomouc 6213 79-2 7 DWWLL
25 Universitatea Craiova 6213 68-2 7 DWWLL
26 Lincoln Red Imps 6213 715-8 7 WDLWL
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6204 990 6 LWLLW
28 Legia Warszawa 6204 880 6 WLLLW
29 Slovan Bratislava 6204 59-4 6 LLWLW
30 Breidablik 6123 611-5 5 DLDWL
31 Shamrock Rovers 6114 713-6 4 LDLLW
32 Häcken 6033 58-3 3 DLLDL
33 Hamrun Spartans 6105 411-7 3 LLWLL
34 Shelbourne 6024 07-7 2 LLLLD
35 Aberdeen 6024 314-11 2 LDDLL
36 SK Rapid 6015 314-11 1 LLLLD
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Universitatea Craiova

WWLDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 4.74–6.57 · xPts 5.38

  • W A SK Rapid 1–0 xG 1.23–1.33 UEFA ECL
  • D H Noah 1–1 xG 0.5–1.08 UEFA ECL
  • L A Raków Częstochowa 0–2 xG 0.36–1.42 UEFA ECL
  • W H İstanbul Başakşehir 3–1 xG 1.32–0.98 UEFA ECL
  • W A İstanbul Başakşehir 2–1 xG 1.33–1.75 UEFA ECL

FSV Mainz 05

LDWLD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 6.93–7.07 · xPts 6.63

  • D H TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 xG 2.27–1.51 GER BI
  • L A Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 xG 0.11–1.11 GER BI
  • W H Fiorentina 2–1 xG 1.46–2.19 UEFA ECL
  • D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 1.38–0.58 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 1–2 xG 1.72–1.68 GER BI

All meetings · 1 match since 2025

Universitatea Craiova 10 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–0 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 1 match

Universitatea Craiova 10 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–0 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 1 match

Universitatea Craiova 10 draws0 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 1–0 · 1.0 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • W Universitatea Craiova 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 UEFA ECL · League Stage
MetricUniversitatea Craiova all · 12Universitatea Craiova at home · 6FSV Mainz 05 all · 12FSV Mainz 05 away · 6
Results
Matches126126
Points per game1.582.171.920.83
W / D / L6 / 1 / 54 / 1 / 17 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match1.832.171.330.50
Goals against / match1.330.670.831.33
Clean sheets33%50%50%33%
Failed to score8%0%25%50%
Both teams scored58%50%33%33%
Over 2.567%67%33%33%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.301.301.520.91
xG against / match1.520.901.341.83
xG difference-0.220.400.19-0.92
Finishing vs xG0.400.50-0.19-0.41
xPts / match1.251.611.520.92
Points vs xPts0.350.390.40-0.08
Game state
Scored first67%67%67%50%
PPG when scoring first2.002.502.381.33
PPG when conceding first0.751.501.000.00
Came back from behind17%50%25%0%
Leads held67%80%78%33%
Minutes leading32%37%31%8%
Minutes level48%57%56%76%
Minutes trailing19%6%13%16%
First goal (min)46493943
First goal conceded (min)47433844
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half65%77%44%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half75%75%40%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.580.830.170.00
Late goals against0.500.170.080.17
Style
Possession45%48%49%49%
Shots11.511.013.610.7
On target4.74.84.02.5
Shot conversion16%20%10%5%
Shots inside box62%60%71%66%
Big chances created3.22.42.31.0
Corners3.22.75.65.0
xG from set plays32%41%31%32%
Goals from headers6%0%19%0%
Pressure index9.38.317.416.5
Dominant minutes29.336.059.257.0
Pass accuracy77%79%79%80%
Fouls16.516.013.212.3
Cards2.832.332.252.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Universitatea Craiova

0–15'12
16–30'21
31–45'41
46–60'42
61–75'44
76–90'56

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'10
16–30'52
31–45'34
46–60'30
61–75'23
76–90'21

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Universitatea Craiova · 8 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.20) · stands out: when behind +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.208
Early press (0-15, level)+0.258
Late push (76+, level)-0.045
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.172

Game state

When ahead-0.264
When level+0.228
When behind+0.535
10 min after conceding-0.047
10 min after scoring+0.096

Situations

At home+0.144
Away+0.244
4+ days rest+0.208

Opposition

As favourite+0.226
Evenly matched+0.132

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.258
Conceded when ahead-0.064
Conceded late (76+)-0.318

Ahead vs level -0.48 · Behind vs level +0.31

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113
Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323
10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032
4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302
As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Universitatea Craiova

Current: winless 2 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-27 58%2.142.431.141.631.53
3-1-4-22 17%0.50.51.50.431.25
3-4-2-11 8%3.01.00.01.130.41
3-4-31 8%0.01.02.01.171.47
5-4-11 8%0.02.03.01.733.14

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-35 42%1.81.40.81.731.01
3-5-24 33%1.751.01.01.121.3
3-5-1-11 8%3.02.00.02.00.77
3-4-2-11 8%3.02.01.01.462.19
5-3-21 8%1.01.01.01.732.8

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.6Home 26% P 27%3.3Draw 28% P 28%2.05Away 46% P 45%

Double Chance

1.7CS U Craiova or Draw 28% P 27%1.33CS U Craiova or Mainz 35% P 36%1.28Draw or Mainz 37% P 37%

Draw No Bet

2.51 38%1.52 62%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 53%2.0No 46% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 48%1.9Under 50% P 52%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 45–47.5% · 466 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home27%26%26%-0.3
Draw28%28%28%+0.2
Away45%46%46%+0.1

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 51%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Dario Bel

Career
17 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
4.76 (4.71 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.06
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.824.92-0.2641
Fouls / match23.923.8+0.11
Fouls per card4.94.8+0.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.090.29-1.396
Time added6.56.5-0.2233
First card
20' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-23 10 240 20'9
2025-07-31 90 330 27'7
2025-07-10 20 200 69'3