FA Cup · Round 1
Momentum
– Luton TownFGR –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Luton Town | at home | Stat | league | away | Forest Green Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.5 #38 | – | Ball possession | 38.3 | – | 42.0 #117 |
| 13.5 #44 | – | Shots total | 8.8 | – | 13.0 #48 |
| 6.0 #38 | – | Shots on target | 3.5 | – | 6.5 #23 |
| 6.0 #41 | – | Corners | 4.0 | – | 4.0 #100 |
| 11.0 #45 | – | Fouls | 9.1 | – | 7.0 #94 |
| 3.5 #9 | – | Offsides | 1.8 | – | 0.5 #111 |
| 12.5 #47 | – | Tackles | 13.6 | – | 10.0 #54 |
| 98.0 #61 | – | Attacks | 71.7 | – | 107.5 #39 |
| 67.5 #21 | – | Dangerous attacks | 37.4 | – | 47.0 #67 |
| 191.5 #61 | – | Passes | 343.8 | – | 162.5 #67 |
| 2.0 #37 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 0.5 #106 |
| 2.0 #9 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 0.5 #72 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 57.6 | – | – #1 |
| – #286 | – | Cleansheet | 16.3 | – | – #286 |
| – #26 | – | Draw | 14.3 | – | – #256 |
| 0.6 #49 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 0.4 #60 |
| 2.4 #7 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.6 | – | 3.1 #1 |
| – #370 | – | Failed to score | 28.2 | – | – #370 |
| 3.0 #20 | 4.0 | Goals | 1.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 #8 |
| 2.5 #167 | 3.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 #167 |
| 1.0 #4 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 1.0 #4 |
| 5.0 #52 | – | Interceptions | 7.4 | – | 6.5 #44 |
| – #706 | – | Lost | 56.7 | – | – #253 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.4 | – | 1.0 #1 |
| 6.5 #69 | – | Rating | 6.6 | – | 6.5 #75 |
| 1.5 #81 | – | Shots blocked | 3.0 | – | 2.0 #64 |
| 3.5 #60 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.1 | – | 7.0 #38 |
| 7.5 #24 | – | Shots off target | 4.5 | – | 4.5 #109 |
| 1.0 #71 | – | Shots outsidebox | 3.5 | – | 1.0 #71 |
| – #141 | – | Win | 29.1 | – | – #141 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 868 of 871
- Goals / match
- 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
- Home / draw / away
- 47% · 18% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 57% · 64%
- Cards / match
- 0.65 (reds 0.05)
Trends
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Lineups
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Bench
Absences
Luton Town
- injury Marvelous Nakamba midfielder · Calf Injury · 6 missed · until 2025-04-09
- injury Shandon Baptiste midfielder · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 55 missed
Forest Green Rovers
- suspension Cian Harries defender · Yellow Card Suspension · 92 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Round 1
Venue
- Stadium
- Kenilworth Road Stadium, Luton
- Capacity
- 12,027
- Surface
- grass
Teams
- Coaches
- Jack Wilshere · Robbie Savage
- Position
- 1 · 2
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Stephen Parkinson
Weather
- Conditions
- light rain
- Temperature
- 14.9° (feels 14.5°)
- Wind
- 10.3
- Humidity
- 77%
Where to watch · 32
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Brazil
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Colombia
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Cyprus
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Denmark
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Ecuador
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England
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Finland
Elisa Viihde Viaplay
Germany
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Iceland
Viaplay Iceland
Indonesia
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Malta
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Netherlands
Viaplay Netherlands
Norway
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Paraguay
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Peru
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Republic of Ireland
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Slovakia
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Sweden
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Uruguay
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Venezuela
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No table for this competition stage.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Luton Town
No recent played matches.
Forest Green Rovers
W 1W 0D 0L · 3 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 1
- W
A
Worthing
4–1
UK FA Cup
W 1W 0D 0L · 3 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 1
- W
A
Worthing
4–1
UK FA Cup
All meetings · 1 match since 2025
Goals 4–3 · 7.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Last 10 · 1 match
Goals 4–3 · 7.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Last 5 · 1 match
Goals 4–3 · 7.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Recent meetings
- W Luton Town 4–3 Forest Green Rovers UK FA Cup · Round 1
| Metric | Luton Town all · 2 | Luton Town at home · 1 | Forest Green Rovers all · 2 | Forest Green Rovers away · 2 |
|---|
Luton Town
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 1 50% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 50% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.24 | 0.73 |
Forest Green Rovers
Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 100% | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.73 | 1.24 |
| Metric | Luton Town all · 10 | Luton Town at home · 10 | Forest Green Rovers all · 7 | Forest Green Rovers away · 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | 1.71 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 5 / 3 / 2 | 4 / 3 / 3 | 4 / 0 / 3 | 2 / 0 / 3 |
| Goals for / match | 1.70 | 1.10 | 2.71 | 2.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.90 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | 14% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 71% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 86% | 100% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.10 | 1.46 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| xG against / match | 0.90 | 0.81 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| xG difference | 0.20 | 0.65 | -0.51 | -0.51 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.57 | -0.36 | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| xPts / match | 1.53 | 1.83 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.36 | -0.33 | -0.95 | -0.95 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 60% | 60% | 43% | 20% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Came back from behind | 50% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| Leads held | 83% | 67% | 100% | 100% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 20% | 37% | 23% |
| Minutes level | 62% | 71% | 36% | 40% |
| Minutes trailing | 14% | 9% | 26% | 36% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 43 | 39 | 48 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 48 | 58 | 37 | 36 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 71% | 64% | 58% | 75% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 71% | 89% | 54% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 50% | 46% | 43% |
| Shots | 13.4 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 8% | 28% | 27% |
| Shots inside box | 61% | 63% | 88% | 88% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| xG from set plays | 42% | 41% | 12% | 12% |
| Goals from headers | 6% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Pressure index | 11.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.1 | 52.5 | 37.7 | 25.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 69% | 68% | 66% | 66% |
| Fouls | 12.2 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Luton Town
0–15'31
16–30'22
31–45'01
46–60'43
61–75'35
76–90'52
Forest Green Rovers
0–15'20
16–30'34
31–45'32
46–60'11
61–75'41
76–90'65
Luton Town
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 0.84 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.74 | 0.54 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.02 | 1.4 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
Forest Green Rovers
Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 20% | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.73 | 1.24 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 20% | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 4-3-3 | 1 20% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 5-3-2 | 1 20% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | – | – |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 20% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| Metric | Luton Town all · 2 | Luton Town at home · 1 | Forest Green Rovers all · 2 | Forest Green Rovers away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Luton Town · 2 matches
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.222
Early press (0-15, level)+0.022
Late push (76+, level)-0.152
Game state
When level+0.462
10 min after conceding-0.332
10 min after scoring+0.122
Situations
4+ days rest+0.222
Opposition
As favourite+0.222
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.252
Conceded late (76+)-0.442
Ahead vs level -0.70 · Behind vs level -0.43
Forest Green Rovers · 2 matches
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.362
Early press (0-15, level)-0.202
Game state
When level-0.372
10 min after conceding-0.472
10 min after scoring-0.312
Situations
Away-0.362
4+ days rest-0.362
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.112
Ahead vs level -0.23 · Behind vs level +0.27
Luton Town
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 50% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.24 | 0.73 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 50% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
Forest Green Rovers
Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 100% | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.73 | 1.24 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.28Home 73% P 73%6.0Draw 16% P 17%8.5Away 11% P 10%
Double Chance
1.12Luton or Draw 42% P 45%1.18Luton or Forest Green 40% P 42%2.75Draw or Forest Green 17% P 13%
Draw No Bet
1.161 81%5.02 19%
Both Teams To Score
1.8Yes 52% P 50%1.95No 48% P 50%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.61Over 59% P 63%2.3Under 41% P 37%
Total Corners
13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%
Number of Cards
2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 72.5–75% · away 7.5–10% · 458 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 73% | 74% | 74% | +0.5 |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 18% | +0.9 |
| Away | 10% | 9% | 8% | -1.5 |
In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 60%
Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 49% | 49% | +0.0 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 64% | 63% | -0.4 |
Stephen Parkinson
No career statistics.
Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 6 matches)
Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 3.83 cards, 20.3 fouls per match.
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | 4 | 0 | – | 0 | 90' | 10 |