Burnley v Millwall · KickoffDNA

FA Cup · Round 3

BurnleyBurnley

5–1

MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– BurnleyMillwall –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

Loading statistics…

Season context

Burnley	at home	Stat	league	away	Millwall
65.5 #7	–	Ball possession	38.3	–	33.0 #149
19.0 #10	–	Shots total	8.8	–	12.0 #63
5.5 #52	–	Shots on target	3.5	–	7.0 #15
6.5 #34	–	Corners	4.0	–	4.0 #100
11.5 #41	–	Fouls	9.1	–	10.0 #62
2.5 #28	–	Offsides	1.8	–	1.0 #77
14.0 #41	–	Tackles	13.6	–	26.0 #4
102.0 #48	–	Attacks	71.7	–	81.0 #99
50.0 #58	–	Dangerous attacks	37.4	–	40.0 #104
626.5 #6	–	Passes	343.8	–	338.0 #41
3.5 #12	–	Yellowcards	1.8	–	1.0 #77
2.0 #9	–	Assists	1.2	–	1.0 #36
– #1	–	Btts	57.6	–	– #1
– #286	–	Cleansheet	16.3	–	– #286
– #256	–	Draw	14.3	–	– #256
2.9 #5	–	Expected goals	1.3	–	–
0.1 #48	–	Expected goals difference	0.6	–	–
– #370	–	Failed to score	28.2	–	– #370
3.0 #20	3.0	Goals	1.4	1.0	1.0 #399
1.5 #402	1.5	Goals conceded	2.0	5.0	5.0 #9
0.5 #48	–	Injury time goals	0.5	–	1.0 #4
13.5 #9	–	Interceptions	7.4	–	18.0 #3
– #253	–	Lost	56.7	–	– #1
7.0 #6	–	Rating	6.6	–	6.4 #92
7.5 #4	–	Shots blocked	3.0	–	4.0 #26
15.5 #4	–	Shots insidebox	7.1	–	11.0 #16
6.0 #52	–	Shots off target	4.5	–	1.0 #219
3.5 #40	–	Shots outsidebox	3.5	–	1.0 #71
– #141	–	Win	29.1	–	– #409

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 868 of 871
Goals / match: 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
Home / draw / away: 47% · 18% · 35%
BTTS · over 2.5: 57% · 64%
Cards / match: 0.65 (reds 0.05)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Burnley · Last 365 days

Hannibal 28 · Attacking Midfield

On the bench

Rating 6.69 (23th pct) · G+A 1 + 4 (10% of team goals) · 34% of minutes

Team 0.62 ppg with (16) · 0.56 without (27)

Marcus Edwards 10 · Right Wing

On the bench

Rating 6.7 (30th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (8% of team goals) · 33% of minutes

Team 0.69 ppg with (13) · 0.53 without (30)

Jacob Bruun Larsen 7 · Left Wing

Starts

Rating 6.61 (16th pct) · G+A 0 + 3 (6% of team goals) · 34% of minutes

Team 0.93 ppg with (14) · 0.41 without (29)

All key players

Millwall · Last 365 days

Jake Cooper 5 · Centre Back

Starts

Rating 7.03 (92th pct) · G+A 4 + 2 (8% of team goals) · 98% of minutes

Caleb Taylor 6 · Centre Back

Not in the squad

Rating 7.2 (98th pct) · G+A 4 + 3 (9% of team goals) · 62% of minutes

Team 1.71 ppg with (31) · 1.7 without (20)

Camiel Neghli 10 · Right Wing

Not in the squad

Rating 6.92 (75th pct) · G+A 5 + 6 (15% of team goals) · 80% of minutes

Team 1.68 ppg with (40) · 1.82 without (11)

All key players

Absences

Burnley

injury Connor Roberts #21 key player defender · Knee Injury · 22 missed · until 2026-05-08
injury Joe Worrall defender · Muscle Injury · 5 missed · until 2026-01-26
injury Jordan Beyer defender · Hamstring Injury · 4 missed · until 2026-08-03
injury Josh Cullen midfielder · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 28 missed · until 2026-10-01
injury Mike Tresor midfielder · Unknown Injury · 99 missed
injury Zeki Amdouni #13 key player attacker · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 35 missed · until 2026-04-30
injury Zian Flemming attacker · Knock · 4 missed · until 2026-01-26

Millwall

injury Lukas Jensen #15 key player goalkeeper · Achilles tendon rupture · 64 missed
injury Will Smallbone midfielder · Hamstring Muscle Injury · 26 missed · until 2026-03-01

Competition

Stage: Round 3

Venue

Stadium: Turf Moor, Burnley
Capacity: 22,546
Surface: grass
Attendance: 6,856

Teams

Coaches: Scott Parker · Alex Neil
Position: 1 · 2
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Anthony Backhouse

Weather

Conditions: broken clouds
Temperature: 0.2° (feels -2.0°)
Wind: 1.9
Humidity: 100%

Where to watch · 25

Argentina Disney+ Premium Argentina
Australia Stan Sport
Bolivia Disney+ Premium Chile
Bosnia and Herzegovina Moja TV
Brazil Disney+ Premium Brazil
Chile Disney+ Premium Chile
Colombia Disney+ Premium Sur
Denmark Viaplay Denmark
Ecuador Disney+ Premium Sur
Finland Elisa Viihde Viaplay
Hong Kong M Plus Live
Iceland Viaplay Iceland
Indonesia Vidio
International Bet365
Italy DAZN Italia
Macau M Plus Live
Netherlands Viaplay Netherlands
North Macedonia MaxTV Go
Norway Viaplay Norway
Paraguay Disney+ Premium Argentina
Peru Disney+ Premium Chile
Sweden Viaplay Sweden
United States fuboTV
Uruguay Disney+ Premium Argentina
Venezuela Disney+ Premium Sur

No table for this competition stage.

Burnley

DDLLD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 3.26–10.35 · xPts 2.87

D H Manchester United 2–2 xG 0.33–2.77 UK PL
L A Brighton & Hove Albion 0–2 xG 0.31–1.35 UK PL
L H Newcastle United 1–3 xG 1.05–3.33 UK PL
D H Everton 0–0 xG 1.3–1.19 UK PL
D A AFC Bournemouth 1–1 xG 0.27–1.71 UK PL

Millwall

LDWDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 4 · xG 6.12–6.22 · xPts 6.62

W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 2.38–1.06 UK CHAMP
D A Southampton 0–0 xG 1.4–1.06 UK CHAMP
W H Bristol City 2–1 xG 1.07–1.14 UK CHAMP
D H Ipswich Town 0–0 xG 0.61–1.1 UK CHAMP
L A Blackburn Rovers 0–2 xG 0.66–1.86 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 15 matches since 2005

Burnley 74 draws4 Millwall

Goals 25–18 · 2.87 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 53%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Burnley 53 draws2 Millwall

Goals 21–12 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Burnley 31 draws1 Millwall

Goals 11–4 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

W Burnley 5–1 Millwall UK FA Cup · Round 3
W Burnley 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
L Millwall 1–0 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Millwall 1–1 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Burnley 2–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Burnley 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Millwall 2–2 Burnley neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Millwall 0–2 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Burnley 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
L Burnley 1–3 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season

Metric	Burnley all · 2	Burnley at home · 2	Millwall all · 1	Millwall away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Burnley · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.067

Early press (0-15, level)-0.227

Late push (76+, level)-0.404

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.224

Game state

When ahead+0.123

When level-0.117

When behind-0.066

10 min after conceding-0.167

10 min after scoring+0.197

Situations

At home-0.213

Away+0.064

3 days rest or fewer-0.052

4+ days rest-0.075

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.045

Evenly matched-0.173

As underdog+0.103

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.167

Conceded when ahead+0.533

Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level +0.23 · Behind vs level +0.05

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017

Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045

When level+0.017

When behind-0.133

10 min after conceding-0.344

10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122

At home+0.043

Away-0.044

3 days rest or fewer-0.322

4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054

v bottom-tier opponents-0.073

Evenly matched+0.104

As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257

Conceded when ahead+0.275

Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Burnley

Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	2 100%	1.5	3.0	1.5	2.91	0.89

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	1 100%	0.0	1.0	5.0	1.07	3.08

Metric	Burnley all · 10	Burnley at home · 10	Millwall all · 10	Millwall away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	0.50	0.50	1.40	1.40
W / D / L	0 / 5 / 5	0 / 5 / 5	4 / 2 / 4	3 / 5 / 2
Goals for / match	1.10	1.10	1.50	1.30
Goals against / match	2.00	1.70	1.50	1.40
Clean sheets	0%	10%	50%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%	30%	20%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	30%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	60%	50%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.25	1.42	1.86	1.66
xG against / match	1.62	1.83	1.30	1.71
xG difference	-0.37	-0.40	0.56	-0.06
Finishing vs xG	-0.15	-0.32	-0.36	-0.36
xPts / match	1.10	1.15	1.66	1.41
Points vs xPts	-0.60	-0.65	-0.26	-0.01
Game state
Scored first	40%	30%	60%	40%
PPG when scoring first	0.50	0.33	2.17	1.75
PPG when conceding first	0.50	0.50	0.00	1.25
Came back from behind	44%	44%	0%	60%
Leads held	0%	0%	67%	60%
Minutes leading	11%	10%	32%	20%
Minutes level	43%	51%	48%	63%
Minutes trailing	46%	39%	20%	16%
First goal (min)	41	45	30	42
First goal conceded (min)	29	30	42	46
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	64%	73%	53%	62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	45%	47%	73%	64%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.20	0.20	0.40	0.20
Late goals against	0.20	0.50	0.30	0.30
Style
Possession	49%	47%	51%	47%
Shots	13.7	13.6	14.5	15.0
On target	4.2	4.0	4.1	3.7
Shot conversion	8%	8%	10%	9%
Shots inside box	54%	64%	74%	69%
Big chances created	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.4
Corners	4.7	5.3	5.6	5.5
xG from set plays	20%	30%	26%	28%
Goals from headers	0%	9%	14%	8%
Pressure index	9.1	9.3	14.3	10.5
Dominant minutes	42.2	42.9	52.8	44.0
Pass accuracy	82%	80%	77%	74%
Fouls	11.8	11.5	10.7	12.7
Cards	2.20	1.80	1.40	1.90

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Burnley

0–15'25

16–30'23

31–45'03

46–60'53

61–75'04

76–90'22

Millwall

0–15'20

16–30'12

31–45'42

46–60'44

61–75'04

76–90'43

Burnley

Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	9 90%	0.44	1.11	2.11	1.29	1.69
4-3-2-1	1 10%	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.9	1.01

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	6 60%	1.33	1.5	1.17	1.69	1.2
4-3-3	3 30%	2.0	2.0	1.67	2.72	1.57
3-1-4-2	1 10%	0.0	0.0	3.0	0.24	1.06

Metric	Burnley all · 43	Burnley at home · 22	Millwall all · 51	Millwall away · 26
Results
Matches	43	22	51	26
Points per game	0.58	0.68	1.71	1.50
W / D / L	4 / 13 / 26	2 / 9 / 11	25 / 12 / 14	10 / 9 / 7
Goals for / match	1.12	1.18	1.45	1.31
Goals against / match	2.02	1.64	1.22	1.42
Clean sheets	7%	14%	41%	31%
Failed to score	28%	36%	18%	19%
Both teams scored	70%	59%	49%	62%
Over 2.5	56%	46%	53%	50%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.06	1.27	1.59	1.49
xG against / match	1.92	1.76	1.40	1.62
xG difference	-0.86	-0.49	0.19	-0.13
Finishing vs xG	0.05	-0.09	-0.14	-0.18
xPts / match	0.88	1.11	1.47	1.32
Points vs xPts	-0.30	-0.43	0.23	0.18
Game state
Scored first	28%	27%	55%	46%
PPG when scoring first	1.00	1.33	2.46	2.25
PPG when conceding first	0.38	0.36	0.74	0.82
Came back from behind	30%	39%	36%	42%
Leads held	29%	29%	81%	71%
Minutes leading	11%	15%	29%	21%
Minutes level	44%	45%	52%	57%
Minutes trailing	45%	40%	19%	22%
First goal (min)	45	33	42	48
First goal conceded (min)	32	30	40	39
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	52%	54%	60%	65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	49%	42%	63%	54%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.28	0.23	0.39	0.31
Late goals against	0.44	0.41	0.33	0.35
Style
Possession	45%	47%	47%	45%
Shots	10.8	12.3	12.8	12.5
On target	3.4	3.8	4.3	3.8
Shot conversion	10%	10%	11%	10%
Shots inside box	62%	65%	71%	70%
Big chances created	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.3
Corners	4.1	4.3	5.5	5.0
xG from set plays	29%	30%	32%	30%
Goals from headers	13%	8%	17%	16%
Pressure index	7.9	9.8	11.8	9.1
Dominant minutes	35.2	38.2	44.4	39.3
Pass accuracy	80%	80%	71%	70%
Fouls	10.6	10.5	12.2	13.6
Cards	1.95	1.68	1.78	2.27

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Burnley

0–15'517

16–30'88

31–45'1019

46–60'811

61–75'513

76–90'1219

Millwall

0–15'87

16–30'108

31–45'128

46–60'1313

61–75'119

76–90'2017

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Burnley · 43 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.2543

Early press (0-15, level)-0.2943

Late push (76+, level)-0.4719

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.3227

Game state

When ahead-0.2414

When level-0.2943

When behind-0.2037

10 min after conceding-0.2839

10 min after scoring+0.0731

Situations

With ten men-0.362

At home-0.2322

Away-0.2721

3 days rest or fewer-0.218

4+ days rest-0.2635

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.3425

v mid-tier opponents-0.0712

As favourite-0.023

Evenly matched-0.075

As underdog-0.2935

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.4443

Conceded when ahead+0.8114

Conceded late (76+)+0.3940

Congested vs rested +0.05 · Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.09

Millwall · 51 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.1051

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0851

Late push (76+, level)-0.2618

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.4011

Game state

When ahead+0.2131

When level+0.1451

When behind-0.2222

10 min after conceding-0.1830

10 min after scoring+0.4341

Situations

With ten men-0.043

Against ten men-0.122

At home+0.1325

Away+0.0726

3 days rest or fewer+0.0817

4+ days rest+0.1134

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.0226

v bottom-tier opponents+0.0919

As favourite+0.3716

Evenly matched-0.0422

As underdog-0.0313

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.1151

Conceded when ahead-0.0331

Conceded late (76+)-0.0945

Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.36

Burnley

Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	19 44%	0.74	1.37	2.05	1.38	1.93
3-4-2-1	8 19%	0.88	1.5	2.13	0.67	2.29
5-4-1	7 16%	0.14	0.57	2.29	0.61	1.89
4-3-3	3 7%	0.0	1.0	2.33	1.22	2.02
4-4-2	2 5%	0.5	0.5	1.0	0.63	1.19

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	42 82%	1.74	1.48	1.17	1.58	1.31
4-3-3	3 6%	2.0	2.0	1.67	2.72	1.57
4-4-1-1	2 4%	0.5	1.0	1.5	1.25	2.23
4-1-4-1	1 2%	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.34
4-4-2	1 2%	3.0	1.0	0.0	1.64	0.88

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 53% P 53%3.7Draw 25% P 26%4.33Away 22% P 21%

Double Chance

1.22Burnley or Draw 39% P 39%1.28Burnley or Millwall 37% P 37%1.9Draw or Millwall 25% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 54%1.95No 48% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 664 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	53%	54%	56%	+2.6
Draw	26%	25%	27%	+1.4
Away	21%	21%	17%	-4.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Yes	54%	54%	54%	-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	51%	51%	51%	-0.1

Anthony Backhouse

Career: 81 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match: 4.02 (3.94 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match: 19.6 · 4.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.11
Cards to home side: 46%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 6 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 2.83 cards, 14.8 fouls per match.

Recent matches

Date	Y	Fouls	1st card	+min
2025-12-29	3	26	18'	9
2025-12-20	5	11	25'	8
2025-12-06	6	21	43'	8
2025-11-29	3	21	68'	6
2025-11-22	3	18	15'	7
2025-11-05	4	17	48'	6
2025-10-31	3	19	43'	6
2025-10-21	3	21	70'	7
2025-10-04	3	19	68'	7
2025-09-27	6	26	39'	9

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2025/2026

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Burnley · Last 365 days

Millwall · Last 365 days

Absences

Burnley

Millwall

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 25

Burnley

Millwall

All meetings · 15 matches since 2005

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Burnley · 7 matches

Millwall · 7 matches

Burnley

Millwall

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Burnley

Millwall

Burnley

Millwall

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Burnley

Millwall

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Burnley · 43 matches

Millwall · 51 matches

Burnley

Millwall

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Number of Cards

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 664 fixtures

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

Anthony Backhouse

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 6 matches)

Recent matches