Rating 7.01 (86th pct) · G+A 10 + 6 (26% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.39 ppg with (44) · 0.5 without (6)
FA Cup · Round 3
Momentum
– Bristol CityWatford –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| Bristol City | at home | Stat | league | away | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.0 #14 | – | Ball possession | 38.3 | – | 47.0 #92 |
| 14.5 #35 | – | Shots total | 8.8 | – | 8.0 #122 |
| 4.5 #80 | – | Shots on target | 3.5 | – | 1.0 #200 |
| 7.0 #22 | – | Corners | 4.0 | – | 4.0 #100 |
| 9.0 #79 | – | Fouls | 9.1 | – | 12.0 #34 |
| 3.5 #9 | – | Offsides | 1.8 | – | – |
| 23.5 #8 | – | Tackles | 13.6 | – | 15.0 #36 |
| 99.5 #54 | – | Attacks | 71.7 | – | 78.0 #111 |
| 46.0 #73 | – | Dangerous attacks | 37.4 | – | 28.0 #152 |
| 602.5 #11 | – | Passes | 343.8 | – | 452.0 #28 |
| 1.5 #65 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 1.0 #77 |
| 2.5 #2 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 1.0 #36 |
| – #374 | – | Btts | 57.6 | – | – #1 |
| – #286 | – | Cleansheet | 16.3 | – | – #286 |
| – #256 | – | Draw | 14.3 | – | – #256 |
| 1.8 #17 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | – |
| 0.7 #31 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.6 | – | – |
| – #114 | – | Failed to score | 28.2 | – | – #370 |
| 2.5 #65 | 5.0 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 #399 |
| 1.0 #538 | 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 #9 |
| 9.5 #27 | – | Interceptions | 7.4 | – | 10.0 #22 |
| – #253 | – | Lost | 56.7 | – | – #1 |
| 7.0 #9 | – | Rating | 6.6 | – | 6.3 #103 |
| 6.0 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 3.0 | – | 2.0 #64 |
| 10.5 #19 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.1 | – | 5.0 #56 |
| 4.0 #122 | – | Shots off target | 4.5 | – | 5.0 #87 |
| 4.0 #30 | – | Shots outsidebox | 3.5 | – | 3.0 #44 |
| – #141 | – | Win | 29.1 | – | – #409 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 868 of 871
- Goals / match
- 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
- Home / draw / away
- 47% · 18% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 57% · 64%
- Cards / match
- 0.65 (reds 0.05)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Bristol City · Last 365 days
Rating 6.89 (72th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (8% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.32 ppg with (40) · 1.1 without (10)
Rating 6.98 (85th pct) · G+A 2 + 1 (5% of team goals) · 70% of minutes
Team 1.4 ppg with (35) · 1.0 without (15)
Watford · Last 365 days
Rating 6.81 (64th pct) · G+A 9 + 1 (18% of team goals) · 61% of minutes
Team 1.36 ppg with (33) · 0.94 without (16)
Rating 6.92 (75th pct) · G+A 5 + 3 (14% of team goals) · 59% of minutes
Team 1.07 ppg with (28) · 1.43 without (21)
Rating 6.84 (63th pct) · G+A 2 + 4 (11% of team goals) · 59% of minutes
Team 1.39 ppg with (28) · 1.0 without (21)
Absences
Bristol City
- injury Joe Williams #16 key player midfielder · Ankle Surgery · 33 missed · until 2026-01-26
- injury Luke McNally defender · Cruciate Ligament Injury · 75 missed
- injury Max Bird midfielder · Calf Injury · 50 missed
- injury Ross McCrorie defender · Unknown Injury · 41 missed
Watford
- injury Rocco Vata #10 key player attacker · Hamstring Injury · 16 missed · until 2026-01-20
- suspension Mamadou Doumbia #5 key player attacker · Called Up To National Team · 4 missed · until 2026-01-11
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Round 3
Venue
- Stadium
- Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
- Capacity
- 27,000
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 13,312
Teams
- Coaches
- Gerhard Struber · Javier Gracia Carlos
- Position
- 1 · 2
- Formation
- 3-4-2-1 · 5-4-1
Referee
Tom Reeves
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 2.6° (feels -0.0°)
- Wind
- 2.6
- Humidity
- 90%
Where to watch · 23
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No table for this competition stage.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Bristol City
WWLWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 10 GA 5 · xG 5.35–6.6 · xPts 6.32
- L
H
Preston North End
0–2
xG 0.61–0.83
UK CHAMP - W
H
Portsmouth
5–0
xG 1.67–0.34
UK CHAMP - L
A
Millwall
1–2
xG 1.14–1.07
UK CHAMP - W
A
West Bromwich Albion
2–1
xG 0.97–1.46
UK CHAMP - W
H
Middlesbrough
2–0
xG 0.96–2.9
UK CHAMP
LWLDLWWLWL 4W 1D 5L · 13 pts (1.3 ppg) · GF 13 GA 11 · xG 13.15–14.5 · xPts 13.33
- L
H
Preston North End
0–2
xG 0.61–0.83
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Portsmouth
5–0
xG 1.67–0.34
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Millwall
1–2
xG 1.14–1.07
UK CHAMP
- W
A
West Bromwich Albion
2–1
xG 0.97–1.46
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Middlesbrough
2–0
xG 0.96–2.9
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Coventry City
0–1
xG 1.65–2.7
UK CHAMP - D
H
Leicester City
2–2
xG 1.55–1.5
UK CHAMP - L
H
Millwall
0–1
xG 1.71–1.1
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Portsmouth
1–0
xG 1.74–1.72
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Wrexham
0–2
xG 1.14–0.87
UK CHAMP
Watford
DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 5.16–4.18 · xPts 7.49
- W
H
Birmingham City
3–0
xG 1.46–0.49
UK CHAMP - W
A
Norwich City
1–0
xG 0.5–0.9
UK CHAMP - W
A
Leicester City
2–1
xG 1.19–0.53
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Stoke City
1–0
xG 1.1–0.83
UK CHAMP - D
A
Wrexham
2–2
xG 0.9–1.42
UK CHAMP
WDLWDDWWWW 6W 3D 1L · 21 pts (2.1 ppg) · GF 18 GA 11 · xG 14.14–8.9 · xPts 17.1
- W
H
Birmingham City
3–0
xG 1.46–0.49
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Norwich City
1–0
xG 0.5–0.9
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Leicester City
2–1
xG 1.19–0.53
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Stoke City
1–0
xG 1.1–0.83
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Wrexham
2–2
xG 0.9–1.42
UK CHAMP
- D
H
Sheffield Wednesday
1–1
xG 2.73–0.63
UK CHAMP - W
H
Norwich City
3–2
xG 1.33–1.76
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Birmingham City
1–2
xG 1.37–1.34
UK CHAMP
- D
H
Preston North End
1–1
xG 1.95–0.59
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Derby County
3–2
xG 1.6–0.4
UK CHAMP
All meetings · 27 matches since 2007
Goals 34–39 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 15–10 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 10–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- W Bristol City 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Bristol City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Bristol City 5–1 Watford UK FA Cup · Round 3
- D Watford 1–1 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Bristol City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Watford 1–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Bristol City 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Watford 1–4 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Watford 2–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Bristol City 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Bristol City all · 2 | Bristol City at home · 1 | Watford all · 1 | Watford away · 1 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Bristol City · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.35) · stands out: as underdog +0.72
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.357
Early press (0-15, level)+0.347
Late push (76+, level)+0.213
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.134
Game state
When ahead+0.114
When level+0.397
When behind+0.514
10 min after conceding+0.077
10 min after scoring+0.565
Situations
At home+0.033
Away+0.614
3 days rest or fewer+0.372
4+ days rest+0.355
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.514
v bottom-tier opponents+0.153
As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched+0.162
As underdog+0.723
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.294
Conceded late (76+)-0.387
Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level -0.28 · Behind vs level +0.13
Watford · 7 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193
Game state
When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015
Situations
At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017
Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16
Bristol City
Current: winless 2 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 100% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.97 | 1.05 |
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | 1 100% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.82 | 2.32 |
| Metric | Bristol City all · 10 | Bristol City at home · 10 | Watford all · 10 | Watford away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 2 / 4 | 3 / 1 / 6 | 2 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 7 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Goals against / match | 1.60 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.21 | 0.90 | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| xG against / match | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.82 | 1.94 |
| xG difference | -0.44 | -0.77 | -0.64 | -0.72 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.29 | 0.10 | -0.37 | -0.51 |
| xPts / match | 1.18 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.22 | 0.05 | -0.19 | -0.48 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.60 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 0.13 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 14% | 14% | 12% |
| Leads held | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 28% | 29% | 12% | 6% |
| Minutes level | 44% | 38% | 36% | 36% |
| Minutes trailing | 27% | 32% | 52% | 58% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 23 | 42 | 54 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 45 | 42 | 24 | 26 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 50% | 50% | 71% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 62% | 60% | 38% | 43% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Late goals against | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 51% | 43% | 49% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 11.3 |
| On target | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Shots inside box | 67% | 54% | 72% | 58% |
| Big chances created | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 |
| xG from set plays | 43% | 28% | 17% | 17% |
| Goals from headers | 27% | 20% | 25% | 14% |
| Pressure index | 12.6 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 8.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.5 | 45.9 | 38.3 | 39.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 11.5 |
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Bristol City
0–15'31
16–30'02
31–45'23
46–60'14
61–75'22
76–90'74
Watford
0–15'23
16–30'25
31–45'05
46–60'14
61–75'12
76–90'22
Bristol City
Current: winless 2 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 100% | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.21 | 1.64 |
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 1.03 | 1.75 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.13 | 2.51 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.02 | 1.93 |
| Metric | Bristol City all · 50 | Bristol City at home · 25 | Watford all · 49 | Watford away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 50 | 25 | 49 | 25 |
| Points per game | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 0.80 |
| W / D / L | 18 / 10 / 22 | 10 / 3 / 12 | 15 / 15 / 19 | 4 / 8 / 13 |
| Goals for / match | 1.24 | 1.44 | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Goals against / match | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.49 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 28% | 14% | 8% |
| Failed to score | 34% | 32% | 29% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 40% | 61% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 49% | 52% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.35 | 1.19 |
| xG against / match | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| xG difference | -0.29 | -0.34 | 0.03 | -0.27 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.04 | 0.31 | -0.21 | -0.23 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.17 | -0.44 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 38% | 48% | 26% | 20% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.37 | 2.33 | 2.23 | 1.80 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| Came back from behind | 27% | 20% | 44% | 32% |
| Leads held | 78% | 77% | 65% | 40% |
| Minutes leading | 27% | 34% | 16% | 8% |
| Minutes level | 43% | 36% | 47% | 45% |
| Minutes trailing | 30% | 30% | 37% | 47% |
| First goal (min) | 34 | 27 | 48 | 53 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 37 | 40 | 30 | 25 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 55% | 56% | 59% | 71% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 53% | 44% | 40% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Late goals against | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
| Shots | 12.3 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 12% | 8% | 8% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 27% | 26% | 29% |
| Goals from headers | 27% | 28% | 14% | 13% |
| Pressure index | 13.4 | 15.7 | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.6 | 48.4 | 45.9 | 41.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 79% | 80% | 79% |
| Fouls | 10.0 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.88 | 2.16 | 2.28 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Bristol City
0–15'99
16–30'815
31–45'1110
46–60'109
61–75'812
76–90'1613
Watford
0–15'711
16–30'616
31–45'1014
46–60'911
61–75'910
76–90'1511
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Bristol City · 50 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.14) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1450
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0550
Late push (76+, level)-0.0716
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2723
Game state
When ahead+0.1223
When level+0.2150
When behind+0.0429
10 min after conceding-0.1936
10 min after scoring+0.5232
Situations
At home+0.0925
Away+0.1825
3 days rest or fewer+0.1417
4+ days rest+0.1433
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.0428
v bottom-tier opponents+0.2516
As favourite+0.3316
Evenly matched+0.0422
As underdog+0.0712
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0650
Conceded when ahead+0.1723
Conceded late (76+)+0.0546
Congested vs rested +0.00 · Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.17
Watford · 49 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: with ten men -0.27
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0249
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0149
Late push (76+, level)+0.0820
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0419
Game state
When ahead-0.0223
When level+0.0649
When behind-0.0134
10 min after conceding-0.2042
10 min after scoring+0.2433
Situations
With ten men-0.273
At home-0.0424
Away+0.0825
3 days rest or fewer+0.1117
4+ days rest-0.0332
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.0127
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0415
As favourite+0.0714
Evenly matched-0.0320
As underdog+0.0515
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.1049
Conceded when ahead+0.1523
Conceded late (76+)-0.1843
Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.07
Bristol City
Current: winless 2 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 22 44% | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.5 | 1.16 | 1.39 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 15 30% | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.11 | 1.55 |
| 3-5-2 | 5 10% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 4 8% | 1.0 | 0.75 | 1.5 | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.35 | 1.13 |
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 21 43% | 1.48 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 16 33% | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 3 6% | 2.33 | 2.0 | 1.33 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.79 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.16 | 1.82 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.0Home 48% P 48%3.4Draw 28% P 28%3.9Away 24% P 25%
Double Chance
1.25Bristol City or Draw 38% P 38%1.3Bristol City or Watford 36% P 36%1.8Draw or Watford 26% P 26%
Draw No Bet
1.41 66%2.752 34%
Both Teams To Score
1.8Yes 52% P 54%1.95No 48% P 46%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Number of Cards
3.52.0Over 46% P 42%1.72Under 54% P 58%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 48% | 49% | 47% | -1.9 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 29% | +1.7 |
| Away | 25% | 24% | 24% | +0.3 |
In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%
Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | 54% | 54% | -0.2 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Tom Reeves
- Career
- 26 matches · 10 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.04 (3.0 yellow · 0.04 red)
- Fouls / match
- 18.8 · 5.0 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.23
- Cards to home side
- 56%
Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 12 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 2.67 | 3.73 | -1.05 | 12 |
| Fouls / match | 20.1 | 19.7 | -0.20 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.7 | 5.5 | +0.33 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.25 | 0.24 | -0.24 | 44 |
| Time added | 5.9 | 7.2 | -1.98 | 0 |
- First card
- 45' on average
- Card timing
- 9% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 56% (league 45%)
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 13' | 8 |
| 2025-12-07 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 30' | 8 |
| 2025-11-29 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 64' | 6 |
| 2025-11-25 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 89' | 8 |
| 2025-10-18 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 7' | 9 |
| 2025-01-10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 63' | 7 |