Fulham v Middlesbrough

FA Cup · Round 3

FulhamFulham

3–1

MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– FulhamMID –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

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Season context

Fulham	at home	Stat	league	away	Middlesbrough
64.0 #13	–	Ball possession	38.3	–	43.0 #111
20.0 #8	–	Shots total	8.8	–	7.0 #133
7.7 #10	–	Shots on target	3.5	–	3.0 #120
9.7 #6	–	Corners	4.0	–	3.0 #134
9.0 #79	–	Fouls	9.1	–	8.0 #89
1.0 #77	–	Offsides	1.8	–	2.0 #38
16.7 #27	–	Tackles	13.6	–	12.0 #49
103.0 #45	–	Attacks	71.7	–	99.0 #55
66.0 #22	–	Dangerous attacks	37.4	–	36.0 #126
605.3 #10	–	Passes	343.8	–	492.0 #23
1.7 #63	–	Yellowcards	1.8	–	2.0 #37
1.0 #36	–	Assists	1.2	–	1.0 #36
– #293	–	Btts	57.6	–	– #1
– #286	–	Cleansheet	16.3	–	– #286
– #256	–	Draw	14.3	–	– #256
2.0 #13	–	Expected goals	1.3	–	–
-0.3 #56	–	Expected goals difference	0.6	–	–
– #238	–	Failed to score	28.2	–	– #370
1.7 #272	1.5	Goals	1.4	1.0	1.0 #399
1.0 #538	1.0	Goals conceded	2.0	3.0	3.0 #81
0.3 #97	–	Injury time goals	0.5	–	1.0 #4
12.3 #11	–	Interceptions	7.4	–	3.0 #71
– #458	–	Lost	56.7	–	– #1
7.1 #4	–	Rating	6.6	–	6.7 #44
5.3 #16	–	Shots blocked	3.0	–	1.0 #91
13.7 #8	–	Shots insidebox	7.1	–	6.0 #46
7.0 #31	–	Shots off target	4.5	–	3.0 #157
6.3 #10	–	Shots outsidebox	3.5	–	1.0 #71
– #47	–	Win	29.1	–	– #409

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 243.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 868 of 871
Goals / match: 3.3 (home 1.83 · away 1.47)
Home / draw / away: 47% · 18% · 35%
BTTS · over 2.5: 57% · 64%
Cards / match: 0.65 (reds 0.05)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Fulham · Last 365 days

Alex Iwobi 17 · Defensive Midfield

Suspension · Called Up To National Team

Rating 7.05 (85th pct) · G+A 4 + 2 (11% of team goals) · 70% of minutes

Team 1.23 ppg with (30) · 1.55 without (11)

Joachim Andersen 5 · Centre Back

On the bench

Rating 6.87 (60th pct) · G+A 0 + 1 (2% of team goals) · 76% of minutes

Team 1.25 ppg with (32) · 1.56 without (9)

Timothy Castagne 21 · Right Back

Starts

Rating 6.89 (64th pct) · G+A 0 + 1 (2% of team goals) · 62% of minutes

Team 1.0 ppg with (25) · 1.81 without (16)

All key players

Middlesbrough · Last 365 days

Callum Brittain 2 · Right Back

Not in the squad

Rating 7.0 (89th pct) · G+A 0 + 7 (9% of team goals) · 87% of minutes

Team 1.5 ppg with (46) · 2.17 without (6)

Luke Ayling 12 · Centre Back

Starts

Rating 7.13 (96th pct) · G+A 1 + 7 (10% of team goals) · 83% of minutes

Team 1.4 ppg with (42) · 2.3 without (10)

Aidan Morris 10 · Central Midfield

Starts

Rating 7.26 (99th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (4% of team goals) · 78% of minutes

Team 1.43 ppg with (42) · 2.2 without (10)

All key players

Absences

Fulham

injury Josh King #10 key player midfielder · Knee Problems · 3 missed · until 2026-01-16
injury Kenny Tete #14 key player defender · Hamstring Injury · 2 missed · until 2026-01-31
injury Rodrigo Muniz #17 key player attacker · Hamstring Injury · 15 missed · until 2026-02-06
suspension Alex Iwobi #1 key player midfielder · Called Up To National Team · 7 missed · until 2026-01-19
suspension Calvin Bassey #11 key player defender · Called Up To National Team · 7 missed · until 2026-01-19
suspension Samuel Chukwueze attacker · Called Up To National Team · 7 missed · until 2026-01-19

Middlesbrough

injury Darragh Lenihan defender · Ankle Surgery · 144 missed

Competition

Stage: Round 3

Venue

Stadium: Craven Cottage, London
Capacity: 25,700
Surface: grass
Attendance: 20,675

Teams

Coaches: Marco Da Silva · Kim Hellberg
Position: 1 · 2
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-2-2

Referee

Lewis Smith

Weather

Conditions: few clouds
Temperature: 2.7° (feels -0.4°)
Wind: 3.1
Humidity: 79%

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No table for this competition stage.

Fulham

WWDDW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 7.32–7.67 · xPts 6.67

W H Chelsea 2–1 xG 1.43–2.41 UK PL
D H Liverpool 2–2 xG 0.55–1.4 UK PL
D A Crystal Palace 1–1 xG 1.58–1.72 UK PL
W A West Ham United 1–0 xG 2.15–1.12 UK PL
W H Nottingham Forest 1–0 xG 1.6–1.02 UK PL

Middlesbrough

LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 4 · xG 8.74–4.54 · xPts 9.52

W H Southampton 4–0 xG 1.96–1.15 UK CHAMP
L A Derby County 0–1 xG 1.22–0.55 UK CHAMP
L H Hull City 0–1 xG 1.73–0.52 UK CHAMP
D H Blackburn Rovers 0–0 xG 0.93–1.35 UK CHAMP
L A Bristol City 0–2 xG 2.9–0.96 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 27 matches since 2002

Fulham 117 draws9 Middlesbrough

Goals 33–32 · 2.41 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Fulham 54 draws1 Middlesbrough

Goals 12–8 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Fulham 32 draws0 Middlesbrough

Goals 6–2 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

W Fulham 3–1 Middlesbrough UK FA Cup · Round 3
W Middlesbrough 0–1 Fulham neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Fulham 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Fulham 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Middlesbrough 0–0 Fulham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Middlesbrough 0–1 Fulham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Fulham 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
L Fulham 0–2 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
D Middlesbrough 0–0 Fulham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
W Fulham 4–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season

Metric	Fulham all · 3	Fulham at home · 2	Middlesbrough all · 1	Middlesbrough away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fulham · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.30

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.034

Early press (0-15, level)-0.014

Late push (76+, level)-0.382

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.303

Game state

When level+0.114

When behind-0.233

10 min after conceding+0.043

10 min after scoring+1.202

Situations

At home+0.322

Away-0.272

4+ days rest+0.034

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.072

v mid-tier opponents+0.142

As underdog-0.072

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.014

Conceded late (76+)-0.134

Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level -0.34

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387

Early press (0-15, level)+0.477

Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196

When level+0.237

When behind+1.004

10 min after conceding+0.276

10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464

Away+0.263

3 days rest or fewer+0.822

4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415

v bottom-tier opponents+0.282

As favourite+0.435

Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137

Conceded when ahead-0.116

Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.61 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Fulham

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · clean sheets 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	3 100%	2.0	1.67	1.0	2.04	1.08

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-2-2	1 100%	0.0	1.0	3.0	1.28	2.33

Metric	Fulham all · 10	Fulham at home · 10	Middlesbrough all · 10	Middlesbrough away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	0.90	1.20	1.50	1.10
W / D / L	2 / 3 / 5	4 / 0 / 6	4 / 3 / 3	2 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match	0.80	1.30	1.50	1.40
Goals against / match	1.20	1.30	1.30	1.20
Clean sheets	40%	20%	20%	30%
Failed to score	50%	30%	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	70%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	60%	60%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.45	2.01	1.73	2.01
xG against / match	1.34	1.22	1.29	1.48
xG difference	0.12	0.79	0.44	0.53
Finishing vs xG	-0.65	-0.71	-0.23	-0.61
xPts / match	1.44	1.83	1.64	1.64
Points vs xPts	-0.54	-0.63	-0.14	-0.54
Game state
Scored first	30%	50%	50%	80%
PPG when scoring first	2.00	1.80	1.40	1.25
PPG when conceding first	0.20	0.60	1.75	0.00
Came back from behind	17%	14%	50%	40%
Leads held	67%	67%	57%	25%
Minutes leading	17%	34%	30%	33%
Minutes level	57%	48%	55%	59%
Minutes trailing	26%	18%	15%	8%
First goal (min)	28	27	28	15
First goal conceded (min)	33	56	41	45
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	25%	38%	53%	36%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	42%	77%	58%	46%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.10
Late goals against	0.10	0.30	0.20	0.30
Style
Possession	54%	56%	60%	59%
Shots	14.2	17.7	17.8	16.3
On target	3.6	5.0	4.5	4.4
Shot conversion	6%	7%	8%	9%
Shots inside box	65%	71%	62%	64%
Big chances created	1.5	2.0	3.4	3.1
Corners	5.7	7.0	6.2	5.7
xG from set plays	26%	24%	25%	22%
Goals from headers	25%	15%	13%	7%
Pressure index	11.9	15.4	17.9	14.6
Dominant minutes	47.2	55.2	61.7	60.8
Pass accuracy	84%	85%	86%	85%
Fouls	11.2	10.6	9.5	8.8
Cards	1.60	2.10	1.20	1.80

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fulham

0–15'12

16–30'21

31–45'34

46–60'13

61–75'01

76–90'11

Middlesbrough

0–15'43

16–30'20

31–45'12

46–60'23

61–75'33

76–90'31

Fulham

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · clean sheets 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	10 100%	0.9	0.8	1.2	1.45	1.34

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-2-1	4 40%	1.0	0.5	0.75	1.49	1.47
4-2-3-1	3 30%	2.33	3.0	2.0	1.95	1.44
4-2-2-2	1 10%	3.0	2.0	1.0	2.9	0.89
4-4-2	1 10%	0.0	1.0	2.0	1.57	0.94
4-3-3	1 10%	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.01	0.9

Metric	Fulham all · 41	Fulham at home · 21	Middlesbrough all · 52	Middlesbrough away · 26
Results
Matches	41	21	52	26
Points per game	1.32	1.62	1.58	1.35
W / D / L	16 / 6 / 19	11 / 1 / 9	22 / 16 / 14	9 / 8 / 9
Goals for / match	1.29	1.67	1.52	1.38
Goals against / match	1.39	1.29	1.15	1.35
Clean sheets	22%	24%	23%	15%
Failed to score	32%	19%	25%	23%
Both teams scored	54%	57%	62%	65%
Over 2.5	56%	62%	56%	58%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.50	1.69	1.65	1.55
xG against / match	1.39	1.31	1.13	1.21
xG difference	0.11	0.38	0.52	0.34
Finishing vs xG	-0.20	-0.02	-0.13	-0.17
xPts / match	1.43	1.60	1.69	1.56
Points vs xPts	-0.12	0.02	-0.11	-0.22
Game state
Scored first	39%	48%	52%	58%
PPG when scoring first	2.13	2.20	2.19	1.87
PPG when conceding first	0.77	1.09	0.90	0.60
Came back from behind	30%	36%	46%	40%
Leads held	76%	79%	71%	56%
Minutes leading	22%	30%	32%	33%
Minutes level	54%	50%	48%	46%
Minutes trailing	24%	20%	20%	21%
First goal (min)	43	38	34	30
First goal conceded (min)	44	47	44	46
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	60%	57%	48%	39%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	54%	63%	58%	59%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.37	0.43	0.21	0.15
Late goals against	0.34	0.24	0.27	0.27
Style
Possession	53%	55%	60%	58%
Shots	13.9	15.9	16.7	15.4
On target	4.1	4.6	4.9	4.4
Shot conversion	9%	10%	9%	9%
Shots inside box	68%	68%	64%	65%
Big chances created	1.7	1.9	2.6	2.5
Corners	5.4	5.9	6.7	5.6
xG from set plays	27%	21%	24%	16%
Goals from headers	18%	12%	13%	11%
Pressure index	13.2	16.1	20.1	18.4
Dominant minutes	48.7	53.3	63.2	62.7
Pass accuracy	84%	85%	85%	84%
Fouls	10.2	9.8	9.2	9.1
Cards	1.93	1.90	1.46	1.88

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fulham

0–15'72

16–30'412

31–45'1012

46–60'912

61–75'85

76–90'1514

Middlesbrough

0–15'1210

16–30'139

31–45'166

46–60'1310

61–75'1411

76–90'1113

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fulham · 41 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.05) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.0541

Early press (0-15, level)-0.0341

Late push (76+, level)-0.0220

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0819

Game state

When ahead-0.0621

When level+0.0441

When behind+0.1627

10 min after conceding-0.1432

10 min after scoring+0.4228

Situations

Against ten men+0.134

At home+0.0921

Away+0.0020

3 days rest or fewer+0.105

4+ days rest+0.0436

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.1323

v mid-tier opponents+0.3112

v bottom-tier opponents+0.473

As favourite+0.4112

Evenly matched-0.1016

As underdog-0.1213

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.0441

Conceded when ahead+0.0921

Conceded late (76+)-0.1038

Congested vs rested +0.06 · Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level +0.12

Middlesbrough · 52 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.50) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.93

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.5052

Early press (0-15, level)+0.5852

Late push (76+, level)+0.2625

Late chase (76+, behind)+0.4715

Game state

When ahead+0.3831

When level+0.4452

When behind+0.8125

10 min after conceding+0.2039

10 min after scoring+0.9338

Situations

Against ten men-0.292

At home+0.4126

Away+0.5926

3 days rest or fewer+0.6117

4+ days rest+0.4535

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.4228

v bottom-tier opponents+0.6617

As favourite+0.5528

Evenly matched+0.4522

As underdog+0.322

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.1852

Conceded when ahead-0.1331

Conceded late (76+)-0.1946

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.06 · Behind vs level +0.37

Fulham

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 4 · clean sheets 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	38 93%	1.32	1.26	1.34	1.54	1.37
3-4-2-1	3 7%	1.33	1.67	2.0	0.94	1.68

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	14 27%	2.43	2.21	1.0	1.63	1.2
3-4-2-1	11 21%	1.0	0.91	1.09	1.68	1.29
4-2-2-2	10 19%	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.95	1.19
4-4-2	6 12%	2.0	2.17	1.67	1.2	1.05
4-3-3	4 8%	2.0	1.5	0.25	1.19	0.79

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 50%3.6Draw 26% P 28%3.9Away 24% P 23%

Double Chance

1.16Fulham or Draw 41% P 39%1.25Fulham or Middlesbrough 38% P 36%2.15Draw or Middlesbrough 22% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.75Yes 53% P 56%2.0No 47% P 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

2.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

3.51.83Over 50% P 35%1.83Under 50% P 65%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 809 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	50%	49%	47%	-1.9
Draw	28%	28%	29%	+1.6
Away	23%	24%	24%	+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Yes	56%	56%	57%	+1.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	52%	51%	51%	-0.1

Lewis Smith

Career: 75 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match: 3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match: 20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.21
Cards to home side: 45%

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 11 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	2.09	3.76	-1.93	0
Fouls / match	16.8	19.7	-1.53
Fouls per card	8.0	5.5	+1.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.0	0.24	-1.70	0
Time added	7.1	7.2	-0.16	38

First card: 40' on average
Card timing: 32% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 46% (league 45%)

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2026-01-01	3	0	19	0	43'	7
2025-12-29	2	0	16	0	37'	6
2025-12-15	5	0	18	0	56'	8
2025-12-06	2	0	14	0	49'	8
2025-11-29	4	0	18	0	57'	10
2025-11-25	4	0	22	0	22'	7
2025-11-08	2	0	13	0	45'	7
2025-11-04	–	–	25	–	–	6
2025-10-21	7	0	22	0	10'	9
2025-10-04	7	0	15	0	5'	11

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

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League this season · 2025/2026

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Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Fulham · Last 365 days

Middlesbrough · Last 365 days

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Fulham

Middlesbrough

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Where to watch · 115

Fulham

Middlesbrough

All meetings · 27 matches since 2002

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fulham · 4 matches

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Fulham

Middlesbrough

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fulham

Middlesbrough

Fulham

Middlesbrough

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fulham

Middlesbrough

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fulham · 41 matches

Middlesbrough · 52 matches

Fulham

Middlesbrough

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

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Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 809 fixtures

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

Lewis Smith

Style in FA Cup (5-year window · 11 matches)

Recent matches